Updated Predictions for 2024 NBA Trade Deadline
*Editor's Note: This article will update with the latest rumors and updated predictions ahead of the 2024 NBA Trade Deadline.
It's officially NBA trade deadline week, which means there will be tons of speculation about teams and players to digest through Thursday at 3 p.m. ET (and probably a bit beyond then).
It's also prime time for misdirection, conflicting reports and in some cases, outright lies. Sifting through the rumormongering and deciphering where various reports are from can be tough, but that's exactly what we're going to try to do here.
Below, you'll find a handful of the most recent tidbits on trades, as well as predictions for where those tidbits will lead, based on what makes the most sense, what feels like leverage plays and what seems totally outlandish.
Lakers Stand Pat
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Latest Buzz
Amid growing rumors that LeBron James might get traded midseason for the first time in his legendary career, his agent, Rich Paul, told ESPN, "LeBron won't be traded, and we aren't asking to be."
Prediction
We'll take Paul at his word on this. The Los Angeles Lakers could probably get a massive, rebuild-ready haul for their superstar, but trading LeBron would be a tough sell to fans, and the Lakers are coming off probably their most impressive back-to-back wins of the season.
Beating the Boston Celtics on the road—without LeBron and Anthony Davis—was genuinely shocking. Following that up with another road win, this time over the red-hot New York Knicks, will hopefully establish a trend. L.A.'s role players are suddenly looking better, and if they can keep that up, maybe another late-season surge like 2022-23's is on the way.
Hoping for that is probably the more prudent path than spending a first-round pick to marginally improve right now. Of the names seemingly available right now, no one is going to change the Lakers' world. They already have one of the league's best duos. And if they wait to reengage the trade market till the summer, they'll have more draft capital to spend on a star, a scenario they're reportedly considering.
According to CBS Sports' Bill Reiter, "a complicating factor on whether or not the Lakers acquire an impact player in the next 24 hours is the belief within the organization they could have a chance to acquire Donovan Mitchell this summer."
Yes, there's a little risk in LeBron opting out of his contract and leaving in the summer. And Mitchell has long been connected to the New York Knicks. He's also playing well enough for the Cleveland Cavaliers that the idea of any trade is starting to feel ludicrous.
But the legacy and market of this team was enough to lure LeBron there in the first place. It should be enough to keep him there, too. And it might be enough to coax a third star to join him and AD.
Bruce Brown Will Join a Contender
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Latest Buzz
From pretty much the moment the Toronto Raptors acquired him from the Indiana Pacers, it's felt like Bruce Brown would be re-routed to a title (or at least playoff) contender. And on Wednesday, Yahoo Sports' Jake Fischer added the Utah Jazz to his potential list of suitors.
"The Jazz, according to league sources, have discussed a framework with the Raptors that would bring Brown to Utah in return for Kelly Olynyk and Ochai Agbaji," Fischer wrote.
Prediction
After trading Simone Fontecchio to the Detroit Pistons, Utah certainly needs a boost on the wing. And Brown would provide that, but this deal doesn't make a ton of sense for either team.
First of all, Olynyk has been one of the most buzzworthy names in the league since well before deadline week. He's one of just seven players averaging a triple-double per 100 possessions this season, and the Jazz should be able to get real value for him. Fischer insists that Toronto still wants a first for Brown. Sending one out with Olynyk would be shocking, since it feels like some contender might give Utah a first for the big man.
Olynyk doesn't really fit Toronto's newly established timeline either (though he's on an expiring contract, so it may not matter). Agbaji does, so maybe there's some other Olynyk-less framework that might make sense.
But right now, there are too many other logical suitors (like the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers, both mentioned in Fischer's report) to expect the Jazz to be the team who lands Brown.
Andre Drummond Lands on a Contender
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Latest Buzz
Even before the possibilities for Zach LaVine or Dejounte Murray trades were extinguished (or nearly extinguished), this year's trade deadline was looking like more of a revolving door for role players than it was for stars. And in that environment, current Chicago Bull and former All-Star Andre Drummond has suddenly emerged as one of the prime trade targets.
"The [Philadelphia] 76ers, I'm told, have indeed registered interest in Chicago's Andre Drummond, joining the likes of [the Boston Celtics] and Dallas [Mavericks]," longtime NBA reporter Marc Stein wrote. "Drummond is widely regarded as the Most Likely Bull To Be Traded this week after literally months of trade speculation in the Windy City."
Prediction
Over the course of his career, the game of basketball sort of evolved beyond Drummond's skillset. There's greater expectations on centers to be able to shoot, create and pass than there was when he entered the league in 2012, and those expectations might've actually made Drummond a bit underrated.
Over the last six seasons, he's averaged 18.5 points, a league-leading 17.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.7 blocks per 75 possessions, with an above-average box plus-minus and a distinctly positive impact on his teams' point differentials.
More recently, Drummond's playing time has ticked up for the Chicago Bulls, and he recently dominated the interior of a game that included Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns.
It's not hard to see how the teams above (and probably some others) could talk themselves into Drummond as a backup 5 or modest-minute starter, especially with his $3.4 million salary.
Some playoff team is going to surrender real value for the Bulls to have Drummond for the stretch run.
Sixers (mostly) Hold Tight
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Latest Buzz
Almost a week since Jonathan Kuminga fell on Joel Embiid's leg in a game, we finally have some definitive news on the injury that caused.
"[Philadelphia] 76ers star Joel Embiid — the reigning MVP — will undergo a procedure this week to repair a left meniscus injury," ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski posted. "A recovery timeline is expected after procedure, but expectation is that he will miss an extended period of time."
Wojnarowski later wrote that Philadelphia hasn't ruled out a return for Embiid, but it's now clear that he'll be out a while. Still, Wojnarowski later reported that the organization still plans to be buyers at the deadline.
Prediction
Even without this development, the 76ers could've easily justified a cautious approach to the next couple weeks. Embiid and Tyrese Maxey make up one of the league's best duos, and the current supporting cast complements it well.
But you can't take potential title windows for granted. A healthy Philadelphia team had one open, and the star-hunting team president, Daryl Morey, may have had the salary and draft assets necessary to turn his star duo into a trio.
Without knowing if Embiid will be back in time for a playoff run, it's tougher to gauge whether that window is still open. So instead of standing pat entirely or going all-in for a third star, expect something of a "split the bicycle" approach.
This campaign should now be about the continued ascension of Maxey and the preservation of assets and cap flexibility for this summer (when Philadelphia is forecast to be one of the teams with cap space), but that doesn't have to prevent the Sixers from doing something.
A smaller move that at least helps Philadelphia avoid the play-in tournament feels like the play.
Buddy Hield Gets Moved
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Latest Buzz
It's felt like Buddy Hield has been a constant in the trade rumor mill for about as long as he's been with the Indiana Pacers, and now another Eastern Conference team is reportedly interested in finally plucking him out of there.
According to Yahoo Sports' Jake Fischer, "Philadelphia is exploring conversations with a variety of teams, but one known target for the Sixers is Pacers guard Buddy Hield."
Prediction
This is exactly the kind of in-between move that the Sixers should be interested in making as they wait for Joel Embiid's return (or at least some surety on whether that will happen this season).
Hield is an all-time great floor spacer, and he'd be the kind of kickout option that would prevent defenders from collapsing on Tyrese Maxey's drives. Synergy between those two isn't hard to imagine, and that offensive duo could keep Philadelphia in the mix for a top six seed.
Plus, Hield's on an expiring contract, so adding him doesn't have to compromise the 76ers' pursuit of cap space this summer.
But for purposes of this prediction, we're not going to narrow it down to just one team. Hield makes sense for Philadelphia, but his shooting is an easy plug-and-play option for a lot of teams. And this is the week his time in the trade rumor mill finally comes to an end.
Austin Reaves Stays in Los Angeles
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Latest Buzz
According to The Athletic's Jovan Buha, "Austin Reaves, whom teams continue to ask for in negotiations, remains off the table barring a clear-cut All-Star shockingly becoming available, according to league sources granted anonymity because they're not authorized to speak publicly."
Prediction
Early in trade deadline week, it's common for teams try to establish some kind of a hardline stance on their own players. If you make someone seem untouchable (or borderline untouchable), you might be able to extract a bit more value from potential suitors.
But in this case, L.A.'s reported stance makes total sense. Given the players widely rumored to be available, it's hard to imagine anyone offering a better cost-benefit proposition than Reaves, who's only making $12 million this season and tops out on this contract at $14.9 million in 2026-27 (when he has a player option).
In other words, he's making just over half of what Dejounte Murray is right now. And over the last couple months, Reaves has looked like the borderline star with a moneyball scoring profile and underrated playmaking skills that he was last season.
Since the calendar flipped to December, Reaves has averaged 16.8 points, 5.6 assists, 3.3 free throws and 1.9 threes, while shooting 37.3 percent from deep and 87.0 percent from the charity stripe.
Sure, if a bona fide, guaranteed-to-move-the-needle superstar becomes available in the next couple days, the Lakers might change their tune, but it sounds pretty reasonable right now.
Mavericks Move Grant Williams
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Latest Buzz
After a decent start to the season, Grant Williams has struggled to positively impact the Dallas Mavericks for well over a month now. He's averaging 6.3 points, while shooting 37.7 percent from the field and 30.8 percent from three over his last 25 games, so it may come as little surprise (at least from Dallas' perspective) that "The Bucks and Mavericks, league sources say, have held exploratory discussions on a trade that would swap Milwaukee's Bobby Portis Jr. and Dallas newcomer Grant Williams," according to longtime NBA reporter Marc Stein.
Prediction
It feels like the Mavericks have to do something this deadline. They've been languishing for what feels like about as long as Williams has, but a straight-up swap for Portis doesn't make a ton of sense for the Milwaukee Bucks. Portis has averaged 13.3 points and hit 39.8 percent from three in his three-plus seasons there, but he also doesn't feel like enough of a prize for Dallas to sweeten the deal with draft assets or young talent.
The Mavericks need a higher-end difference maker, preferably one who's more available than Kyrie Irving. And while Williams probably isn't enough to land that kind of player (or even one on Portis' level) by himself, he could very well be part of a package that includes more salary filler (like Richaun Holmes or Maxi Kleber), some draft capital and perhaps one young talent (like Josh Green or Jaden Hardy).
Andrew Wiggins Stays in Golden State
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Latest Buzz
It's not typical for a former No. 1 pick to be a reclamation project twice in his career, but that may be on the table for Andrew Wiggins, as the first such project may have run its course with the Golden State Warriors. On FanDuel TV's Run It Back, Shams Charania said, "The Mavericks and [Indiana] Pacers are two teams, I'm told, that are expressing interest in Wiggins."
Prediction
Wiggins might be exactly the kind of talent Dallas needs (and can actually get). The Mavs don't have a ton of trade assets, Wiggins' value is distressed and the fully actualized version of him (which we haven't really seen since the 2022 Finals) could legitimately change Dallas' fortunes.
But Wiggins was, at best, an average player last season. In 2023-24, he's arguably been one of the worst high-minute players in the league. And with his contract running through 2026-27 (when he has a $30.2 million player option) teams interested in him might actually demand Golden State be the team including draft assets or young talent.
And if that's the case, the Warriors would probably be better off hanging on to what's in place, hoping Wiggins improves his trade value at some point during this contract and looking toward a future with Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis.
Malcolm Brogdon Won't Get His Wish to Stay in Portland
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Latest Buzz
From pretty much the moment he arrived with the Portland Trail Blazers, it felt like Malcolm Brogdon would eventually be re-routed to a playoff or title contender. We're now in February, that hasn't happened yet and Brogdon, according to Stein, "has been openly lobbying the Trail Blazers to keep him beyond Thursday's trade deadline."
Prediction
There's real value in keeping a veteran like Brogdon around for a rebuild. Losing can often breed bad habits, and Brogdon is exactly the kind of talent and leader who could ward some of that off. He'd be a heck of a tutor for Scoot Henderson's first couple seasons too.
But there's a bit of a balancing act between that and the value of more young talent or draft picks, and Brogdon has been good enough to perhaps command the return of either (or both).
His $22.5 million salary is highly movable. He can start or come off the bench. He can play on or off the ball. And this season, he's averaging 5.5 assists and 2.1 threes, while shooting 41.2 percent from deep.
Enough contenders should be interested to stir up a mini bidding war, and Portland will have a hard time saying no to at least one of the offers that'll roll in this week.
Denver Tweaks Its Rotation
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Latest Buzz
Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone recently told the media that he doesn't think general manager Calvin Booth is "burning up the phones" in hopes of making a trade. But The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor wrote, "I've also heard that Denver has considered acquiring former Mr. Nugget Monte Morris."
Prediction
The Nuggets could probably justify sticking with this team through the deadline. They're a dreadful minus-10.3 points per 100 possessions when Nikola Jokić is off the floor, but they similarly struggled without the big man last season. And those struggles almost ceased entirely when they deployed Aaron Gordon as the starting 4/backup 5 in the playoffs.
They can dust that off again this postseason (and they've done it a couple times in 2023-24).
But there's also value in winning enough regular-season games to earn home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. And if the Nuggets don't want to wear Gordon out over the next couple months, a bench upgrade wouldn't hurt.
Morris would likely help. His plus-0.3 box plus/minus in Denver is significantly better than Reggie Jackson's below-replacement-level mark of minus-2.8 as a Nugget. A more consistent backup 5 than the DeAndre Jordan-Zeke Nnaji pairing would more directly address those Jokić on-off numbers.
And Denver doesn't need to do anything dramatic (it might not have the assets to anyway). Just a minor tweak at either of those spots could be enough for the reigning champs to surge into first place in the West before the season ends.
Alex Caruso Gets Moved
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Latest Buzz
The Chicago Bulls have seemed content to toil away in mediocrity for the last few years, so digging their heels in and hanging onto DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vučević and Alex Caruso wouldn't be surprising. And according to HoopsHype's Michael Scotto, "Chicago continues to have a high asking price on Alex Caruso of the equivalent of two first-round picks to consider moving the All-Defensive guard."
Prediction
But there are a number of playoff teams (or potential playoff teams), including the Oklahoma City Thunder, New York Knicks and New Orleans Pelicans, who have troves loaded enough to justify parting with two picks.
And if the Bulls turned that down for a good, but soon-to-be-30-year-old combo guard, it'd be borderline organizational malpractice.
Chicago needs a full-scale rebuild, and Caruso is probably the likeliest player to return the kind of haul necessary to jumpstart that.
Kelly Olynyk Gets Moved
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Latest Buzz
"[Kelly] Olynyk, in particular, is highly sought after in the market," Matt Moore wrote for The Action Network. "He's a backup center in a market in which everyone wants size help for the playoffs who can also shoot, pass and defend."
Prediction
For the second year in a row, the Utah Jazz are better than expected. And for the second year in a row, the better-than-expected Jazz are one of the most interesting potential trade teams.
In 2023, Mike Conley was the veteran who was unloaded. This season, it should (and likely will) be Olynyk.
He's not a big name. He's never come close to making an All-Star team. But Olynyk's unique combination of size (he's 6'11"), playmaking, rebounding and outside shooting makes the interest in him easy to understand.
He could seamlessly slot in as the second or third big for a bunch of different playoff teams (including the Denver Nuggets, Dallas Mavericks, Oklahoma City Thunder or Miami Heat). His malleability might even lead to a mini bidding war that results in Utah getting a first-rounder for him.
And for a team in Utah's position, a first for a soon-to-be-33-year-old reserve big would be hard to pass up.
Jalen Green Stays Put
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Latest Buzz
"The [Houston] Rockets have first-round picks galore and so many good young players that—if enough of them hit—there will be no viable way to pay all of them," Zach Lowe wrote for ESPN. "They want to chase a playoff spot now. This is why Jalen Green's name has generated some trade buzz, per league sources."
Prediction
The math problem referenced by Lowe is indeed on the way, assuming the Rockets stay on their current trajectory and don't make any consolidation trades.
Green, Alperen Şengün, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and Cam Whitmore are all on rookie, first-round contracts. Given the potential of each, reasonable extensions for all of the above would put Houston, at best, in the neighborhood of the new collective bargaining agreement's dreaded second apron. At worst, it'd be impossible to field a team around those guys, as Lowe suggests.
With Green's contract expiring after the 2024-25 season and Şengün (whose contract expires at the same time) playing like an All-Star, it makes sense to at least think about moving Green.
But the Rockets have one more year before they really have to make this choice, and Green has done enough lately to cause some hesitation. Over his past six games, Green is averaging 27.2 points, 3.7 assists and 2.7 threes.
There may still be a bona fide, contributes-to-winning lead scorer to uncover with Green. Houston will give him at least another half season to prove one way or another if that's what he is.
Dejounte Murray Gets Traded...to the Knicks
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Latest Buzz
Dejounte Murray's name has been one of the most common in this year's rumor mill, but on The Saturday Stein Line with Marc Stein, Yahoo Sports' Jake Fischer wrote, "The only teams I've really heard actual offers about have been from the Lakers and from Utah."
Prediction
This one's admittedly a little further out on a limb than some of the previous predictions here. This isn't just suggesting that Murray will indeed get traded. It's giving a specific landing spot that isn't among those listed by Fischer, and some dots have to be connected to get there.
The New York Knicks already made a legitimately game-changing trade in acquiring OG Anunoby, but it cost them an occasionally electrifying scorer and playmaker off the bench in Immanuel Quickley.
In theory, there's still plenty of depth in the backcourt with Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo and Josh Hart, but those latter two can also play on the wing. Neither is quite the on-ball threat Quickley was.
Murray can replace that, and Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau might be able to help him rediscover the defensive prowess that contributed to him making an All-Star with the San Antonio Spurs.
New York should have enough ammo to pull off a deal too. Evan Fournier's contract is some of the best salary filler on the market right now (his $19 million for 2024-25 is a team option, so it's essentially an expiring contract right now). The Knicks have deep trove of draft assets, and Dejounte Murray's Atlanta Hawks might be interested in Quentin Grimes.
Dallas Adds a Forward
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Latest Buzz
Elsewhere on Stein's podcast, Fischer mentioned Jerami Grant, Andrew Wiggins, Dorian Finney-Smith and P.J. Washington as potential targets for the Dallas Mavericks.
Prediction
Dallas needs to do something. Its point differential is barely above zero with Luka Dončić on the floor this season. Kyrie Irving's lack of availability has been an issue. A playoff spot is far from assured for the currently-in-eighth-place Mavs, and they have a decent number of tradable contracts on the books (though maybe not enough first-round picks to go star-chasing).
Aggregating Tim Hardaway Jr.'s salary ($17.9 million) with Grant Williams ($12.4 million), Richaun Holmes ($12 million), Maxi Kleber ($11 million) or Josh Green (whose outgoing salary for purposes of a trade is around $11 million, thanks to a "poison pill" provision in his upcoming deal) could put Dallas in the market for someone making near $30 million (like Grant or Wiggins).
And while acquiring either (or Washington or DFS, for that matter) would constitute a blockbuster, it would balance the Mavericks' roster a bit and potentially bring some of the multipositional defense they currently lack.
Alec Burks Joins a Playoff Team
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Latest Buzz
"Alec Burks is still on New York's radar at the moment," Ian Begley wrote for SNY. "The Knicks can offer Detroit draft compensation and a package of players to get Burks. There is an element of familiarity here because Burks played -- and played well -- for Tom Thibodeau and the Knicks in 2020-21."
Prediction
Burks has become a full-fledged NBA journeyman, playing for six different teams since he left the Utah Jazz during the 2018-19 season. And the fact that he's bounced all over the league (including to some bad teams) may have caused to him to fly under the radar a bit.
Over the last five seasons, Burks has averaged 18.7 points, 4.1 free throws, 3.6 assists and 2.9 threes per 75 possessions, while shooting 40.1 percent from deep. The only player who matches or exceeds all five of those marks over the same span is Stephen Curry.
And whether it's the Knicks or some other suitor, some playoff team is going to extricate Burks from the historically bad Detroit Pistons.
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