Super Bowl Odds 2024: Prop Picks, Spread Projections for 49ers vs. Chiefs
Super Bowl LVIII will let the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers fight for NFL supremacy—just like they did in Super Bowl LIV.
It will also give the betting world myriad options when it comes to making majors. Gamblers can get a piece of everything from the result of the coin toss to the final score, so your betting slip can look as exotic as you want.
We'll keep it fairly simple here, though, by examining and predicting the game result and a couple of player prop bets.
Super Bowl LVIII Schedule, Odds
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Location: Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas
Date: Sunday, Feb. 11
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
TV and Live Stream: CBS and Paramount+
Line: 49ers -2
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Money Line: 49ers -120 (bet $120 to win $100), Chiefs +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
This isn't quite a coin flip, but it sure feels like one.
The 49ers looked like the league's best team for much of the season, but there's really no argument about which side has put together the most impressive playoff run. While San Francisco needed second-half comebacks to survive upset attempts by the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers, Kansas City was busy short-circuiting the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens with a hard-fought win over the Buffalo Bills sandwiched in between.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a magician with the football, and his ability to go off-script with tight end Travis Kelce can seem impossible to stop. Tack on the rise of sophomore running back Isiah Pacheco and rookie receiver Rashee Rice, plus the ascension of this fully dominant defense, and Kansas City has become a nightmare matchup for almost anyone.
San Francisco packs plenty of firepower, though, and second-year signal-caller Brock Purdy spreads it around in a way that maximizes all of the playmakers around him. Running back Christian McCaffrey is an all-purpose production machine, while receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle can all make tough catches and turn any touch into a long gain.
The 49ers defense has wobbled a bit in the postseason, but they are loaded with disruptive defenders across their front seven and have a safety blanket on the back end with All-Pro second-team cornerback Charvarius Ward.
This contest has instant-classic potential, and it isn't hard to talk yourself into either side emerging victorious. We promised a prediction, though, so that's exactly what we'll provide.
Prediction: 49ers 28, Chiefs 24
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Prop Pick: Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown (-225)
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It seems, at times, like McCaffrey is an automatic lock to find the end zone. If you share that belief, then you can put your money where your mind is.
These odds seem pretty steep for anyone to find the end zone—the next-highest odds of anytime touchdown belong to Isiah Pacheco at -125—but McCaffrey isn't just anyone. He's the most dynamic player at his position and a threat to score as either a ball-carrier or a pass-catcher (or both).
During the regular season, he had 21 touchdowns (14 rushing, seven receiving) in his 16 outings. He then delivered two rushing scores apiece in San Francisco's first two playoff games. That's 25 touchdowns in 18 total outings, only three of which were scoreless affairs.
Kansas City's defense is stout, but with an elite talent like McCaffrey, it almost doesn't matter who's lined up across from him. He'll score in the Super Bowl, the only question is how many times. To no one's surprise, oddsmakers have identified him as the likeliest supplier of two (+225) or even three (+800) scores.
Prop Pick: Travis Kelce Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
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While Kelce remains one of the top players at his position, the 34-year-old perhaps showed his age a bit this season.
His 93 receptions were his second-fewest in the last six seasons. He failed to crack the 1,000-yard receiving mark for the first time since 2015. His five touchdowns matched the second-fewest of his career.
So, why on earth are we recommending an over bet on his yardage total? Because he's still Kansas City's top option in the passing game, and the Chiefs still treat him as such.
In his last two playoff outings, he paced Kansas City in targets (17 total), receptions (16), yards (191) and touchdown catches (three). While Rice was the high man in those categories during the Chiefs' win over the Dolphins, Kelce still tallied seven receptions on 10 targets for 71 yards in that contest.
To find the last time he didn't crack 70 receiving yards in a playoff game, you have to go back to these teams' last meeting in the Super Bowl. And it wasn't like he was bottled up in that game, as he still snagged all six of his targets and found the end zone. It's just that those six receptions yielded only 43 yards.
Back then, though, Mahomes had more options at his disposal, like Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins, who combined for 14 receptions and 203 yards in that tilt. Though the development of Rice has perked up this receiving corps, it still isn't what it used to be.
If Kelce doesn't reach 70 yards in this outing, either he'll have suffered an injury or San Francisco's defense will have played its best game all season. We wouldn't bet on either of those outcomes.
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