5 Early Bold Predictions for the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline
The 2024 NHL trade deadline is at 3 p.m. ET on Friday, March 8. Nevertheless, media speculation over which teams will become buyers and which players they might target has already begun. Such notables as Calgary Flames center Elias Lindholm and Pittsburgh Penguins winger Jake Guentzel have surfaced as trade candidates in the rumor mill.
It could be several weeks before we start seeing significant trades. Last year, the first noteworthy trade occurred on Jan. 30 when the Vancouver Canucks shipped Bo Horvat to the New York Islanders. That opened the floodgates, as stars such as Patrick Kane, Ryan O'Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko and Timo Meier were moved throughout February.
Clubs could take a little longer to make noteworthy trades this year. Half of the 32 NHL clubs have placed some sidelined players on long-term injury reserve to become cap-compliant as of Jan. 16. Of the remainder, 10 have less than $5 million in cap room.
Most teams could wait until deadline day to accrue sufficient salary-cap space to address their roster needs. Others could attempt to get creative by swinging three-team deals to spread a player's cap hit around.
As we await the first significant move to take place, it's a good opportunity to make some bold predictions for this year's trade deadline. Feel free to weigh in with your thoughts or to make some predictions of your own in the app comments section.
Los Angeles Kings Bring In Jake Allen
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The Los Angeles Kings are getting solid goaltending from Cam Talbot this season. The 35-year-old is enjoying a bounce-back performance with a record of 14 wins, 10 losses and five overtime losses with a 2.34 goals-against average and a .918 save percentage.
However, their goalie depth suffered a blow when backup Pheonix Copley underwent season-ending ACL surgery earlier this month. Call-up David Rittich has performed well in his brief appearances, going 3-0-1 with a 1.61 GAA and .932 save percentage.
Nevertheless, the Kings could use some insurance between the pipes in case Talbot or Rittich struggle or become sidelined by injury. That's why we predict they'll pursue a veteran with Stanley Cup experience such as Jake Allen of the Montreal Canadiens.
Allen, 33, sits at No. 3 on our January NHL Trade Block Big Board. He's signed through next season with a $3.9 million cap hit and a seven-team no-trade list. He played a backup role for the Blues during their Stanley Cup run in 2019 and backed up Carey Price as the Canadiens reached the 2021 Cup Final.
With Cayden Primeau showing promise as a backup for Samuel Montembeault, Allen could be the odd man out in Montreal. The Kings have $2.4 million in projected salary-cap space but perhaps the Canadiens could be enticed to retain half of Allen's cap hit if a second-round draft pick or a promising young player were offered up in return.
Toronto Maple Leafs Acquire Chris Tanev
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The Calgary Flames have been frequently mentioned as a potential trade-deadline seller stretching back to last fall. They're carrying three noteworthy players—center Elias Lindholm and defensemen Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev—who are slated to become unrestricted free agents in July.
Tanev could become a target for the Toronto Maple Leafs if the Flames start shopping those three pending UFAs leading up to deadline day. The 33-year-old defenseman was a frequent topic of media trade conjecture through December, so much so that he topped our January NHL Trade Block Big Board.
As we noted last week in our top trades and landing spots for Tanev, Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving attempted to acquire him earlier this season. He knows the blueliner well, having signed him to his current contract while GM of the Flames. With John Klingberg out for the season, the Leafs need a reliable top-four, right-side defenseman.
The Leafs could be reluctant to part with their 2024 first-round pick, plus they lack second-round picks through 2026 to use as trade bait. The Flames could retain half of Tanev's $4.5 million cap hit provided the cap-strapped Leafs make it worth their while.
Perhaps the Flames could help Toronto out cap-wise by taking struggling goalie (and pending free agent) Ilya Samsonov and his $3.5 million off the Leafs' hands once their sidelined starter Joseph Woll returns to action. Maybe the Leafs could offer up forward David Kampf. Either guy would have to be packaged with a quality prospect and a draft pick.
New Jersey Devils Trade For John Gibson
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With the Anaheim Ducks rebuilding their roster, John Gibson has frequently surfaced in the rumor mill. The 30-year-old goaltender carries an average annual value of $6.4 million through 2026-27 along with a 10-team no-trade clause. His stats have suffered in recent years with the rebuilding Ducks, but they could improve on a contender.
The Ducks shipped young defenseman Jamie Drysdale and a draft pick last week to the Philadelphia Flyers for promising prospect winger Cutter Gauthier. With his club near the bottom of the standings, Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek might not be done dealing and could entertain offers for Gibson from clubs seeking a veteran starting goalie.
One of those clubs could be the New Jersey Devils, as they require an upgrade between the pipes to contend for the Stanley Cup. Vitek Vanecek sits near the bottom of the league among goalies with at least 15 games played with a .882 save percentage and a 3.31 save percentage.
The Devils are pressed against the $83.5 million salary cap. However, with Dougie Hamilton sidelined indefinitely with a torn pectoral, they could garner nearly $9 million in cap relief by placing him on long-term injured reserve. If Hamilton is out for the remainder of the regular season, it would free up more than enough room to acquire Gibson.
Verbeek could seek a top prospect or a promising young NHL player along with a first-round pick for Gibson. The Devils are already loaded with young talent on their roster, so this could be a worthwhile opportunity to part with some futures to bolster their Stanley Cup hopes for the next several seasons.
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Colorado Avalanche Land Elias Lindholm
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A talented two-way center slated to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, Elias Lindholm of the Calgary Flames could become the most sought-after player leading up to the March 8 trade deadline. A frequent subject of trade rumors since last summer, he sits at No. 5 on our January NHL Trade Block Big Board.
The Colorado Avalanche will likely end up landing Lindholm. Winners of the Stanley Cup in 2022, they're among this season's top teams and could be looking for a top-six forward to help them bring home the Cup this year.
They've been lacking a reliable second-line center since Nazem Kadri departed for Calgary in 2022. The Avs' decision to trade Tomas Tatar to the Seattle Kraken on Dec. 15 led to Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reporting some teams were worried they were preparing to acquire Lindholm.
Lindholm carries a $4.9 million cap hit for this season and lacks no-trade protection. His two-way skills would make him a solid addition to the Avalanche's second line, but Calgary general manager Craig Conroy won't just give away such a valuable asset. He'll want a significant return.
The Avalanche could be unwilling to part with their 2024 first-round pick, because they lack a second- and third-rounder in this year's draft. They could bundle their 2025 or 2026 first-rounder or a prospect like Calum Ritchie with young defenseman Bowen Byram.
Pittsburgh Penguins Re-Sign Jake Guentzel
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As the Pittsburgh Penguins jockey for one of the wild-card berths in the Eastern Conference, Jake Guentzel's future with the club has become a topic of discussion among NHL pundits. He's eligible to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1 and is earning an annual salary-cap hit of $6 million on his current contract with a 12-team no-trade list.
As a result, Guentzel has appeared on several recent trade-bait lists. The Athletic's Chris Johnston had the 29-year-old Penguins winger at No. 19 on his Dec. 20 list. TSN's Steve Dryden had him at No. 13 and Daily Faceoff's Frank Seravalli at No. 25 on their respective Jan. 10 listings.
On Jan. 7, Johnston's colleague Rob Rossi noted that Guentzel's agent seemed to suggest that this season could be his client's last in Pittsburgh depending on what direction Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas wants to take the team. That would account in part for why the winger is being suggested as a trade candidate.
However, we think the Penguins will hang onto Guentzel as they attempt to nail down a playoff berth. Dubas will want to allow his club to do so and perhaps stage a deep postseason run. They'll need a reliable scorer like Guentzel to do so.
We'll go one step further with our prediction. We think the Penguins will surprise us by re-signing Guentzel to a long-term extension worth an average annual value of $8.5 million before the deadline. He'll leave a bit of money on the table to remain Sidney Crosby's wingman.
Stats (as of Jan. 15, 2024) via NHL.com, salary info via Cap Friendly and draft pick information via Puck Pedia.
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