Dolphins vs. Chiefs: Daily Fantasy Sleepers, Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings

All of the talk in the buildup to the Miami Dolphins-Kansas City Chiefs AFC wild-card matchup has been about the weather.

A wind chill warning is in effect in Kansas City, and the temperature will be below zero by the time of the 8 p.m. ET kickoff, per Accuweather.

The immediate reaction to the weather from a daily fantasy football perspective is to load up on the running backs on each roster.

Kansas City already uses a heavy dose of Isiah Pacheco, and he could be the top DFS point scorer at the position during wild-card weekend.

De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert should receive a ton of attention as well in FanDuel and DraftKings contests, but Miami's offensive scheme may not be suited to the conditions.

All DFS players should be hesitant to trust each passing game in the frigid weather, and that may make it hard to find any sleepers for a single-game, or Saturday two-game, contest on either site.

Build Around Isiah Pacheco

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KANSAS CITY, MO - DECEMBER 31: Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (10) breaks loose for a long run in the first quarter of an NFL game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs on Dec 31, 2023 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Isiah Pacheco was going to be a popular DFS selection no matter what the weather conditions were based on Miami's Week 18 performance.

The Dolphins allowed 473 total yards to the Buffalo Bills, including 128 yards on the ground.

Miami's defense is littered with injury absences from Bradley Chubb to Jaelan Phillips and it was gashed for over 400 total yards and over 125 rushing yards by both Buffalo and the Baltimore Ravens to close out the season.

Kansas City has more motivation to run Pacheco at a high rate with the poor weather so that Patrick Mahomes does not have to force the ball to his lackluster pass-catching corps and risk mistakes in certain situations.

Pacheco earned at least 15 carries in five of his last six appearances. He went for over 100 yards in two of the last three contests and scored four times in a four-game span.

Pacheco must be selected with his $8,000 salary on DraftKings and $12,000 salary on FanDuel.

He could be the most popular player in the Miami-Kansas City game, but he has to be chosen because of his likely heavy role in the Chiefs offense.

Go After the Pass Catching Stars First Before Searching for Sleepers

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MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - JANUARY 07: Tyreek Hill #10 of the Miami Dolphins celebrates after a touchdown during the second quarter against the Buffalo Bills at Hard Rock Stadium on January 07, 2024 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images)

Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice should have high roster percentages across all DFS contests involving Saturday's game in Kansas City.

Kelce and Rice were the only Chiefs players with more than 50 receptions in the regular season.

Kelce has 14 career postseason touchdown catches from Mahomes and Rice has developed into the clear No. 1 wide receiver on the Chiefs roster in his rookie season.

Hill and Waddle receive a majority of the targets from Tua Tagovailoa inside the Miami offense.

Hill will have extra attention on him in his return to Kansas City, and that could lead to a higher roster percentage over the other three premier pass-catchers.

Waddle will be important as well because he will open up the middle of the Kansas City secondary.

Hill should still finish with more catches and yards than Waddle, but if the Chiefs control the game through the run, there is a situation in which both of Miami's wide outs perform better than Kelce and Rice.

Sleepers Are Easier to Find on Kansas City Roster

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KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - DECEMBER 31: Justin Watson #84 of the Kansas City Chiefs runs a route during an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ryan Kang/Getty Images)

Kansas City has the better potential sleeper options in its passing game.

The problem with that is Mahomes could go to any of a few pass-catchers in key situations.

Justin Watson is probably the best sleeper pick on the Kansas City roster because Mahomes typically uses him for long gains.

One 20-yard catch could be enough for Watson to prove his worth on a DFS roster because of how often the stars are expected to touch the ball.

Noah Gray could also be considered because he earns some targets across the middle when a defense surrounds Kelce.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kadarius Toney are play-at-your-own-risk selections. Each player has had their share of mistakes this season, and that may lead to an avoidance in key spots by Mahomes due to a lack of trust.

Miami's best sleeper pick is tight end Durham Smythe, but his workload will likely be limited with Waddle back in the fold.

Braxton Berrios might be an interesting sleeper option if the Dolphins attempt to run a few trick plays on the ground, but that is the extent of Miami's potential sleepers.

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