Resetting MLB's SP Market Following Shōta Imanaga, Marcus Stroman Contract Signings
The starting pitching market continues to dwindle for teams still searching for a rotation upgrade, with Japanese League standout Shōta Imanaga joining the Chicago Cubs and veteran Marcus Stroman signing with the New York Yankees.
That said, there are still a few impact arms looking for a new home, including 2023 NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell and postseason hero Jordan Montgomery.
Ahead we've provided a full rundown of the current state of the starting pitching market, including a look at each team's current rotation needs, a closer look at the notable starters still looking for a new contract, a quick-hit list of some low-cost bargain options and a glance at the trade market.
Remember, it's not often that a team gets through an entire 162-game season without having to navigate some sort of key injury to the starting rotation, so even teams that seemingly have a set staff could benefit from some further depth.
Team-by-Team Rotation Need Breakdown
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Teams That Definitely Need a Starter
- Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles seemed like a prime candidate to add a veteran starter to their young staff on the heels of a 101-win season, but they have yet to make a move and currently have Cole Irvin in the No. 5 starter spot.
- Minnesota Twins: With Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda gone in free agency, the Twins can plug one rotation hole with a healthy Chris Paddack, but they still need at least one more proven starter to compete with Louie Varland for the fifth spot.
- San Diego Padres: The Padres added three potential rotation pieces in the Juan Soto blockbuster, bringing back Michael King, Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito, but the current roster potentially leaves them relying on all three to break camp with a rotation spot.
- San Francisco Giants: The Giants signed flame-throwing reliever Jordan Hicks to a four-year, $44 million deal on Friday with the intention of using him as a starter. That still leaves the unproven trio of Kyle Harrison, Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck to fill two spots in the rotation.
Teams That Are Potentially in the Market for a Starter
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Los Angeles Angels
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Texas Rangers
- Toronto Blue Jays
The Angels (Chase Silseth), Diamondbacks (Ryne Nelson), Dodgers (Emmet Sheehan) and Phillies (Cristopher Sanchez) all have promising young starters currently penciled into the No. 5 spot on otherwise set staffs.
The Brewers have Colin Rea and Joe Ross projected to round out the staff, but they might also steer away from spending. The Rangers could use some depth to wait out the returns of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle, and the Blue Jays' current rotation relies on a bounce-back season from Alek Manoah.
Teams With a Set Starting Rotation
- Atlanta Braves
- Boston Red Sox
- Chicago Cubs
- Cincinnati Reds
- Cleveland Guardians
- Detroit Tigers
- Houston Astros
- Kansas City Royals
- Miami Marlins
- New York Mets
- New York Yankees
- Seattle Mariners
- St. Louis Cardinals
These teams have either made the moves necessary to shore up their rotation, or they entered the offseason with a fully intact starting staff. The Cubs (Shōta Imanaga) and Yankees (Marcus Stroman) only recently joined this list.
Bargain-Hunting Teams
- Chicago White Sox
- Colorado Rockies
- Oakland Athletics
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Washington Nationals
None of these teams are going to make a push to sign one of the top remaining starters on the market, but as free agency winds down and spring training approaches they could hunt for bargains to fill out the rotation or provide depth.
LHP Blake Snell
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Top 100 FA Rank: 4
Stats: 32 GS, 14-9, 2.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 99 BB, 234 K, 180.0 IP, 6.0 WAR
The reigning NL Cy Young winner, Snell had one of the most confounding individual pitching seasons in recent memory in 2023. He issued an MLB-high 98 walks, but he dominated to the point that he was able to effectively pitch around those free passes.
The 31-year-old has been inconsistent at times in his career, but there is no question he is capable of ace-level production, and with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Aaron Nola both signed, he is unquestionably the top starter left on the market.
The New York Yankees reportedly made him an offer, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, but the Marcus Stroman signing likely takes them out of the running. The Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants have also been linked to Snell this offseason.
Prediction: Signs a five-year, $125 million deal with the San Francisco Giants
LHP Jordan Montgomery
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Top 100 FA Rank: 7
Stats: 32 GS, 10-11, 3.20 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 48 BB, 166 K, 188.2 IP, 4.1 WAR
No player raised his free agency profile more during the postseason than Montgomery, who served as co-ace alongside Nathan Eovaldi during the Texas Rangers' run to a World Series title.
The 31-year-old has been one of the most durable starters in baseball over the past three seasons, averaging 31 starts and 174.2 innings while posting a 3.48 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 5.8 WAR during that span.
A reunion with the Texas Rangers has always made sense, but issues with their TV deal could keep them from making any more high-profile signings this winter. The Los Angeles Angels have been tied to the top end of the pitching market all offseason and remain a potential landing spot, while the Baltimore Orioles make sense on paper despite no rumored link.
Prediction: Signs a five-year, $100 million deal with the Texas Rangers, with $50 million deferred over five years starting in 2029.
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RHP Mike Clevinger
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Top 100 FA Rank: 22
Stats: 24 GS, 9-9, 3.77 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 40 BB, 110 K, 131.1 IP, 3.3 WAR
Mike Clevinger was a dominant enough starting pitcher at his peak for the San Diego Padres to give up a king's ransom to acquire him at the 2020 trade deadline, but injury struck shortly after that trade and he missed the entire 2021 season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
He returned with a 4.33 ERA in 114.1 innings and a career-low 7.2 K/9 with the Padres in 2022 before hitting the open market last winter, and he settled for a one-year, $8 million deal with the Chicago White that included a $12 million mutual option and $4 million buyout.
The 33-year-old had a good enough season that declining his end of the option was an easy decision, and while he may not have the same swing-and-miss stuff he did in his prime, he can still be a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter on a contending team.
Prediction: Signs a two-year, $26 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels
LHP Clayton Kershaw
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Top 100 FA Rank: 28
Stats: 24 GS, 13-5, 2.46 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 40 BB, 137 K, 131.2 IP, 3.7 WAR
The days of Clayton Kershaw chewing through 30 starts and 200 innings are a thing of the past, but the future Hall of Famer continues to pitch at an ace level when he does take the mound, and he was lights out over 24 starts in 2023.
The 35-year-old underwent shoulder surgery in November, and while there is no clear timetable for his return, he hopes to return at some point during the summer.
He could simply wait until he's healthy and throwing again to make a decision on whether he plans to pitch in 2024, or he could simply re-up with the Los Angeles Dodgers on another one-year deal that is prorated based on the number of starts he makes.
Prediction: Remains unsigned on Opening Day
RHP Michael Lorenzen
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Top 100 FA Rank: 39
Stats: 29 G, 25 GS, 9-9, 4.18 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 47 BB, 111 K, 153.0 IP, 2.0 WAR
Used primarily as a reliever during his time with the Cincinnati Reds, Michael Lorenzen shifted to the starting rotation pitching on a one-year deal with the Los Angeles Angels in 2022.
He pitched well enough with the Angels to stick in a starting role and joined the Detroit Tigers on a one-year, $8.5 million deal last offseason, which turned out to be one of the bargains of the winter when he posted a 3.58 ERA in 18 starts and earned an All-Star selection.
The Tigers flipped him to the Philadelphia Phillies at the deadline, and he slumped to a 5.51 ERA in 47.1 innings after the trade, finishing the year back in the bullpen. However, his overall numbers in 2023 are still good enough to put him in the mid-tier of available starters.
Prediction: Signs a one-year, $12 million deal with the Minnesota Twins
LHP James Paxton
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Top 100 FA Rank: 48
Stats: 19 GS, 7-5, 4.50 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 33 BB, 101 K, 96.0 IP, 1.1 WAR
With a 3.69 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 932 strikeouts in 850.2 innings over 10 seasons in the majors, James Paxton has been an effective starter throughout his career when healthy, but avoiding the injury bug has been a recurring issue.
After making just six combined starts in 2020 and 2021 and then missing the entire 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, Paxton finally returned to full health with the Boston Red Sox last season.
He went 5-1 with a 2.73 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 64 strikeouts in 56 innings over his first 10 starts after returning to the mound on May 12, and while he ran out of gas during the second half of the season, a full offseason of rest and a full spring to build his arm back up could make him one of the steals of the offseason.
Prediction: Signs a one-year, $10 million deal with the San Diego Padres
LHP Hyun Jin Ryu
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Top 100 FA Rank: 52
Stats: 11 GS, 3-3, 3.46 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 14 BB, 38 K, 52.0 IP, 0.4 WAR
Gerrit Cole (9/$324M), Stephen Strasburg (7/$245M), Zack Wheeler (5/$118M) and Madison Bumgarner (5/$85M) were the only pitchers to sign richer contracts than the four-year, $80 million deal Hyun Jin Ryu received from the Toronto Blue Jays during the 2019-20 offseason.
He finished third in AL Cy Young voting in 2020 and made 31 starts in 2021, but injuries limited him to 79 total innings over the final two years of the contract as he missed significant time recovering from Tommy John surgery.
The 36-year-old pitched well enough upon returning to action last season that it's a bit surprising no one has come calling with a one-year contract yet, especially considering how many other mid-tier dominos have fallen.
Prediction: Signs a one-year, $8 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays
Roundup of Low-Cost Options
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Here are a few other names still searching for a new contract that could potentially fill a back-of-the-rotation spot or serve as useful depth:
- RHP Zach Davies
- RHP Zack Greinke
- LHP Rich Hill
- RHP Jakob Junis
- RHP Brad Keller
- LHP Eric Lauer
- RHP Jake Odorizzi
- RHP Noah Syndergaard
- RHP Julio Teheran
- RHP Spencer Turnbull
- LHP Alex Wood
The expectation is that these guys will be available for something in the neighborhood of a one-year, $1 million deal, or perhaps even a minor-league contract. At that price point, anything they contribute would make them a solid value.
One name on the above list worth keeping an eye on is Julio Teheran, who was a two-time All-Star during his time with the Atlanta Braves. The 32-year-old missed the bulk of 2021 and 2022 with injury issues, but he returned to the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers midway through the 2023 season and posted a 4.40 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 71.3 innings.
The Trade Market
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A few top starting pitchers have found new homes on the trade market this offseason, most notably Tyler Glasnow going from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chris Sale moving from the Boston Red Sox to the Atlanta Braves.
It's looking more and more like Corbin Burnes (MIL) and Shane Bieber (CLE) will both stay put after hearing their names in speculative trade talks throughout the offseason. To that point, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported on Friday that it is "very unlikely" the Guardians will trade Bieber this offseason, though a deadline deal is still a possibility.
That leaves Dylan Cease as perhaps the most likely impact arm to still be on the move.
Short-sighted fans will look at his 4.58 ERA in 2023 and label him an average pitcher, but that was accompanied by a 3.72 FIP which is a good indication he dealt with some bad luck. He also continued to post elite strikeout numbers with 214 punchouts in 177 innings, and he is just a year removed from finishing runner-up in AL Cy Young voting.
The 28-year-old also comes with two remaining years of club control, which further adds to his trade value.
Will anyone be willing to meet the White Sox asking price?
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