Bleacher Report's 2024 NFL Wild Card Playoff Picks
Bleacher Report's NFL experts finished the 2023 season with a bang. After double-digit win totals against the spread and straight up for consecutive weeks, they're ready to help bettors win big money with Wild Card Round picks.
When you're on a hot streak, the more the merrier.
So, B/R's panel, which includes analysts Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski and Maurice Moton along with editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford, welcomed editor Bryan Toporek to the crew for the duration of the playoffs.
With only six games on the slate, our group of tipsters understands they have little margin for error, but that didn't stop them from rolling the dice on a couple of underdogs to win outright.
To provide a balance in our postseason analysis, two experts will support their picks for each game.
Before we break down wild-card matchups, take a look at the final regular-season standings for our experts.
ATS Standings
1. Gagnon: 153-114-5
2. Hanford 149-118-5
3. Moton: 144-123-5
4. Knox: 143-124-5
T-5. Davenport: 138-129-5
T-5. O'Donnell: 138-129-5
7. Sobleski: 134-133-5
Consensus picks: 147-120-5
SU Standings
1. Hanford 180-92
T-2. Knox: 174-98
T-2. Moton: 174-98
4. Gagnon: 170-102
5. O'Donnell: 168-104
6. Davenport: 164-108
7. Sobleski: 163-109
Consensus picks: 177-95
Lines are from DraftKings as of Thursday, Jan. 11, at 4 p.m. ET. Check the latest lines at DraftKings. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
Cleveland Browns (11-6) at Houston Texans (10-7)
1 of 6
DraftKings Line: Cleveland -2.5
Within a year, the Houston Texans made a leap from a franchise in disarray to a playoff team set to host a Wild Card Round game thanks in large part to head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Ryans brought structure to the club, and Stroud delivered in big moments on the field, engineering three game-winning drives.
Oddsmakers gave the edge to the Cleveland Browns, who have a much more experienced head coach-quarterback combination, and most of our panel laid the points with them.
Knox nearly sided with Houston because Cleveland could experience an issue with its kicking game, but he trusts Super Bowl-winning quarterback Joe Flacco to pull through under the bright lights on the playoff stage.
"I fully expect this to be one of the most fun games of Wild Card Weekend. It involves two Coach of the Year candidates and an intriguing matchup between rookie phenom C.J. Stroud and elder statesman Joe Flacco. Cleveland has the better defense, though even without counting the meaningless finale, it has surrendered 29.4 points per game on the road.
"I think Flacco's experience makes the difference here, though if the line were even slightly larger, I'd back Houston—and I won't be completely shocked if the absence of kicker Dustin Hopkins (hamstring) ultimately sends the Browns home early."
Sobleski agreed with Knox because of the battle at the line of scrimmage between the Texans offensive line and the Browns' fierce pass rush that ranked seventh in pressure rate (23.8 percent) for the 2023 term.
"Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud experienced a historically good rookie season. He's the favorite to claim this year's Offensive Rookie of the Year hardware. The Ohio State product came up big in Week 18 during a must-win scenario that ultimately led to a division crown and playoff berth.
"However, Stroud didn't play when these two teams met during the regular season. The outcome shouldn't be any different, though, because the Browns defense will almost certainly wreck Stroud's world.
"Despite missing two games and possessing excellent mobility, Stroud still ranked among the bottom eight quarterbacks in times sacked. Now, he'll be staring down the league's most dominant front, with Myles Garrett and Za'Darius Smith screaming off the edges. It's not going to end well in Houston."
Predictions
Davenport: Texans
Gagnon: Texans
Hanford: Browns
Knox: Browns
Moton: Browns
O'Donnell: Texans
Sobleski: Browns
Toporek: Browns
ATS Consensus: Browns -2.5
SU Consensus: Browns
Score Prediction: Browns 27, Texans 23
Miami Dolphins (11-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
2 of 6
DK Line: Kansas City -4.5
The Kansas City Chiefs matchup with the Miami Dolphins may be impacted by the weather a lot more than the other wild-card contests.
In Kansas City, the Chiefs and Dolphins may play in one of the coldest games in NFL history.
In frigid conditions, both teams should aim to establish an effective ground attack, and Sobleski believes the Dolphins' sixth-ranked rushing offense will do enough to keep the score close.
"To be fair, the Dolphins are banged up and it's easy to understand why people are putting money down on the Chiefs," Sobleski said. "Two factors play in the Dolphins' favor, though.
"First, a cold snap blanketed the Kansas City area. The high for Saturday is supposed to be around 21 degrees, so this should be a tight game based on the weather.
"Second, the Dolphins are a superior running team, which is critical when the temperature makes the ball feel like a rock. Miami ranked sixth overall in rushing offense, while the Chiefs find themselves among the bottom half of the league. With or without a healthy De'Von Achane, the Dolphins can run to, at minimum, keep the game close."
In disagreement with Sobleski, Gagnon stuck to the numbers, which don't look good for Miami against opponents on the road this season.
"It's admittedly difficult to feel great about the Chiefs right now, but there's one stat I can't get past with Miami. On the road against playoff teams this season, the Dolphins went 0-4 with an average margin of defeat of 21.5 points. Against a resilient and highly experienced winner like Kansas City at Arrowhead, I just doubt the Dolphins can hang around."
Predictions
Davenport: Chiefs
Gagnon: Chiefs
Hanford: Chiefs
Knox: Dolphins
Moton: Dolphins
O'Donnell: Dolphins
Sobleski: Dolphins
Toporek: Dolphins
ATS Consensus: Dolphins +4.5
SU Consensus: Chiefs
Score Prediction: Chiefs 21, Dolphins 20
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at Buffalo Bills (11-6)
3 of 6
DK Line: Buffalo -9.5
This matchup has the largest spread as the Buffalo Bills ride a five-game winning streak into the postseason to face the Pittsburgh Steelers, who needed help to clinch the No. 7 seed.
Though none of our experts picked the Steelers to win, most of them think Pittsburgh keeps the outcome within single digits.
Hanford acknowledged the Steelers' improved offensive output with quarterback Mason Rudolph leading the huddle over the last three weeks, which factored into his decision to side with Pittsburgh ATS, but he doesn't see an outright upset here.
"The Steelers are arguably the weakest team in the playoffs and will be without their best player in T.J. Watt (MCL sprain) this week in Buffalo. That's not a good recipe, even if Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) is set to play. I don't have any Lake Erie or walleye references to back up my Bills pick like we've seen from one of my colleagues in several cases.
"But suffice it to say that while Pittsburgh's offense has been playing better as of late with Mason Rudolph under center, thanks in large part to a dominant run game, I can't see a scenario where the Steelers earn a victory over a Bills team that's won five straight.
"Pittsburgh covers in a ground-and-pound game, but Josh Allen makes plays with his legs, limits mistakes and Buffalo advances."
Moton remembers a couple of the Bills' turnover-ridden performances against lesser opponents as part of their winning streak—that's why he picked Pittsburgh to cover the spread.
"Yes, the Bills have racked up wins over the past month, but they beat the Los Angeles Chargers, who didn't have quarterback Justin Herbert, and the four-win New England Patriots by fewer than seven points," Moton recalled.
"Buffalo didn't crush teams out of playoff contention, so how can anyone comfortably take this club to blow out a postseason opponent?
"By the way, the Steelers tied for eighth in takeaways (27) for the 2023 season, and the Bills have turned the ball over seven times in the last three weeks. Buffalo wins by a touchdown or less."
Predictions
Davenport: Steelers
Gagnon: Bills
Hanford: Steelers
Knox: Steelers
Moton: Steelers
O'Donnell: Steelers
Sobleski: Steelers
Toporek: Steelers
ATS Consensus: Steelers +9.5
SU Consensus: Bills
Score Prediction: Bills 28, Steelers 21
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Green Bay Packers (9-8) at Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
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DK Line: Dallas -7.5
The Green Bay Packers will square off with a Mike McCarthy-led Dallas Cowboys squad for the second time since they fired him in 2018. The Packers won the last meeting with Aaron Rodgers under center in Week 10 of the 2022 season at Lambeau Field.
Now, Green Bay has a young quarterback in Jordan Love who isn't afraid to push the ball downfield. Love tied for fifth in intended air yards per pass attempt (8.5) for the 2023 campaign.
Even with Love's aggressive play style, seven of our experts picked the Cowboys to cover the spread, including Knox who believes it's Green Bay's ground attack that has to level the playing field.
"We'll have plenty of fun discussion points next week if the NFL's youngest team—one without a single Pro Bowler—goes into Dallas and surprises everyone. However, I can't see it happening. Dallas has been nearly unstoppable at home, and Joe Barry's defense has been too inconsistent down the stretch for me to trust Green Bay.
"My biggest concern here is Aaron Jones and the resurgence of the Packers' ground game. Dallas' defense is merely average against the run, and between Jones and Jordan Love's scrambling ability, the Packers can cause the Cowboys problems.
"If Green Bay somehow pulls the upset, I think it does it by pounding the ball, creating big passing plays off play action and moving Love out of the pocket. However, my gut tells me that it won't be enough and that Dallas wins by double digits."
Davenport noted the Cowboys' dominance at home during the regular season as the primary reason to back them ATS.
"This call is all about location, location, location," Davenport said. "On the road this season, the Cowboys were 4-5 and had a point differential of plus-2.4 points per game. At home, Dallas was a perfect 8-0 and had a point differential of plus-21.5 points per game.
"The Packers won their last three games to get into the postseason, but Green Bay's 17th-ranked defense is going to be hard-pressed to keep up with a Dallas offense that has averaged over 37 points per game (a league-best at home) at AT&T Stadium this season.
"There's going to be some cheese getting shredded Sunday afternoon (even I almost feel bad about that joke), and Mike McCarthy's (maybe) shaky job security will be stable for at least another week."
Predictions
Davenport: Cowboys
Gagnon: Cowboys
Hanford: Cowboys
Knox: Cowboys
Moton: Cowboys
O'Donnell: Cowboys
Sobleski: Cowboys
Toporek: Packers
ATS Consensus: Cowboys -7.5
SU Consensus: Cowboys
Score Prediction: Cowboys 33, Packers 23
Los Angeles Rams (10-7) at Detroit Lions (12-5)
5 of 6
DK Line: Detroit -3
This matchup may headline Wild Card Round highlights.
The Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams have similarities, starting with their top-eight scoring offenses and ascending ground attacks. On the flip side, both clubs have struggled defensively, ranking 19th or worse in points allowed per game.
However, the Rams and Lions have some differences that swayed our panel one way or another.
After Davenport dusted off the history books to remember Detroit's last division title, he backed the team with the Super Bowl-winning quarterback over a squad that may not have one of its key playmakers because of an injury.
"The last time the Lions entered the playoffs as NFC North champions was never—the division was still the NFC Central, players wore leather helmets and Rutherford B. Hayes was president. (Actually, it was Bill Clinton in his first year, but it's been a while)," Davenport jested.
"Both of these teams have no problem scoring points. Both have their issues defensively. Both have quarterbacks who have played in a Super Bowl. But the Rams have an edge at that position with Matthew Stafford, and if rookie tight end Sam LaPorta (knee) can't go Sunday night, it's a major blow for the Lions. Detroit had a great season. But it ends this week."
Gagnon went in the other direction, digging deep into analytics, which favor the Lions.
"The Rams haven't lost a game in regulation since their Week 10 bye, but the Lions remain the superior team on paper, and I think the environment for this momentous game in Detroit will be too much for Los Angeles to overcome," Gagnon said.
"We're talking about the league's seventh-ranked team in terms of DVOA, at home against the league's 17th-ranked squad in that metric. And don't forget that the Lions are also just a controversial ending in Dallas short of being on their own four-game winning streak. They'll pull this out."
Predictions
Davenport: Rams
Gagnon: Lions
Hanford: Rams
Knox: Rams
Moton: Lions
O'Donnell: Rams
Sobleski: Rams
Toporek: Rams
ATS Consensus: Rams +3
SU Consensus: Rams
Score Prediction: Rams 34, Lions 31
Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
6 of 6
DK Line: Philadelphia -2.5
The Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have key players who may have to push through injuries.
According to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero, Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown will undergo an MRI on his knee. Fellow wideout DeVonta Smith missed Philadelphia's previous game because of an ankle injury. Quarterback Jalen Hurts suffered a dislocated middle finger on his throwing hand last week.
As for the Buccaneers, quarterback Baker Mayfield played through rib and ankle injuries to help his team clinch the NFC South title in a 9-0 win over the Carolina Panthers last week.
Moton has strong concerns about Mayfield's injuries preventing him from carving up the Eagles' porous pass defense.
"Mayfield may not be able to take full advantage of the Eagles' 31st-ranked pass defense with his nicks and bruises. In the Buccaneers' last two outings, he's thrown for just two touchdowns and two interceptions and recorded a season-low 137 passing yards against the Panthers in Week 18.
"Tampa Bay has allowed an average of 119.5 rushing yards per game over the previous two weeks. Even if Hurts plays through pain in his dislocated finger, he can hand off to running backs D'Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell to test the Buccaneers' interior front.
"Philadelphia gets its second victory since December thanks to a physical offensive line and Swift's ability to break off big gains on the ground."
On the other hand, Toporek doesn't see how the Eagles turn it around amid a stretch of poor performances against a Buccaneers defense that can fluster an injury-riddled offense.
"Over the past four weeks, the Eagles have lost to the Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants, all of whom missed the playoffs. They turned the ball over nine times during that span, and their defense has collapsed under new play-caller Matt Patricia (surprise, surprise).
"The Giants flummoxed the Eagles with blitzes last week, which the Bucs—who had the NFL's third-highest blitz rate this season—will likely look to emulate Monday.
"A well-coached team would have a clear game plan to counter blitzes, but the Eagles are not a well-coached team at the moment. With Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (finger) and wideouts A.J. Brown (knee) and DeVonta Smith (ankle) all nursing injuries, it's hard to envision the Eagles offense keeping pace in this game, especially with heavy rain in the forecast. I'm expecting the Bucs to win this game outright, so I'm thrilled to be getting 2.5 points here."
Predictions
Davenport: Buccaneers
Gagnon: Buccaneers
Hanford: Buccaneers
Knox: Buccaneers
Moton: Eagles
O'Donnell: Eagles
Sobleski: Buccaneers
Toporek: Buccaneers
ATS Consensus: Buccaneers +2.5
SU Consensus: Buccaneers
Score Prediction: Buccaneers 26, Eagles 24
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