2023-24 NFL MVP: Winner Prediction and Complete Odds for Top Candidates

The completion of the NFL's regular season put one player on the cusp of winning the sport's highest individual honor.

And oddsmakers have a strong hunch about which player that will be.

There are technically others in the running, though, and some of them have relatively reasonable arguments to make. After laying out the odds of the MVP race, we'll spotlight the strongest candidates in the field and predict whether the heavy favorite will be the one to hoist the hardware.

MVP Odds

Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

LANDOVER, MD - DECEMBER 31: Brock Purdy #13 (L) of the San Francisco 49ers hands the ball off to Christian McCaffrey #23 during the first half of the game against the Washington Commanders at FedExField on December 31, 2023 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

Lamar Jackson (-20000; bet $100, win $100.50)

Dak Prescott (+1800; bet $100, win $1900)

Brock Purdy (+3000)

Josh Allen (+3500)

Christian McCaffrey (+4000)

Tyreek Hill (+7500)

Tua Tagovailoa (+10000)

Jalen Hurts (+30000)

Patrick Mahomes (+30000)

Matthew Stafford (+30000)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Top Candidates

Patrick Smith/Getty Images

LANDOVER, MARYLAND - JANUARY 07: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys looks to pass during the first quarter against the Washington Commanders at FedExField on January 07, 2024 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Jackson, the MVP of the 2019 season, guided the Ravens to a league-best 13 wins and an NFL-high plus-203 scoring differential. He threw for 3,678 yards and 24 touchdowns, rushed for 821 yards and five scores and dazzled in marquee matchups with San Francisco (252 passing yards and two scores), Detroit (21-of-27 for 357 yards and three touchdowns, nine carries for 36 yards and a score) and Miami (18-of-21 for 321 yards and five touchdowns).

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Prescott has posted big numbers in the past, but this may have been his strongest season to date. His 69.5 completion percentage and 105.9 quarterback rating were both personal-bests, while his 4,516 passing yards (third-most overall) and league-leading 36 passing touchdowns were both the second-best marks of his career.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

This was Purdy's award to lose late in the season, and he seemingly lost with a scoreless, four-interception showing against Jackson and the Ravens on Christmas night. Still, he was a top-five passer by yards (4,280, fifth) and touchdowns (31, third) and the NFL leader in QBR (72.8, per ESPN).

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Allen's season had its ups and downs, but he still closed the campaign with absurd numbers on the stat sheet. Beyond throwing for 4,306 yards and 29 touches (and 18 interceptions), he also rushed for 524 yards and 15 touchdowns—more than any player not named Raheem Mostert.

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

McCaffrey was, to put it simply, unstoppable this season. He had more rushing yards than anyone (1,459), the most yards per carry among the 36 players with 150-plus attempts (5.4) and the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (14), not to mention his 67 receptions for 564 yards and seven scores. For those keeping score at home, that's 21 touchdowns in 16 outings.

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

Hill was on a 2,000-receiving-yard pace before his output (and that of Miami's offense as a whole) finally slowed late in the season. While this wasn't quite a historic effort, it was absurdly productive. He paced everyone with 1,799 yards, tied for the league lead with 13 touchdown catches and tied for second with 119 receptions.

Predicted Winner: Lamar Jackson

Michael Owens/Getty Images

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - DECEMBER 31: Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens celebrates after a touchdown during an NFL football game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Miami Dolphins at M&T Bank Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

I mean...we all saw those odds, right?

While others can present strong statistical cases, Jackson has the best-player-on-the-best-team angle locked up. He also crafted quite the narrative having operated under a new offensive coordinator (Todd Monken), seeing the injury bug sideline his top target (Mark Andrews) and two of his best running backs (J.K. Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell) and throwing his most passes to a rookie receiver (Zay Flowers).

He still needed a late surge to seize control of the race, and he delivered it during those signature wins over San Francisco and Miami, which were decided by a total of 51 points.

"No doubt he's the best in the league," Ravens safety Geno Stone told reporters after Jackson posted a perfect quarterback rating in that Week 17 domination of the Dolphins. "No doubt he's the MVP."

Stone might be biased toward his teammate, but he's still spot-on with his assessment. Jackson is your MVP.

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Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.