Mel Kiper Ranks Michael Penix Jr. over McCarthy for 2024 NFL Draft After Michigan Win

J.J. McCarthy may have beaten Michael Penix Jr. in Monday's national championship game, but Mel Kiper Jr. favors the Washington product as far as their NFL projections.

The ESPN draft guru released his latest rankings for the 2024 NFL draft Tuesday on Get Up, with Penix sliding in as his fourth-ranked quarterback, one spot ahead of McCarthy:

1. Caleb Williams, USC
2. Drake Maye, UNC
3. Jayden Daniels, LSU
4. Michael Penix Jr., Washington
5. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

B/R's current draft rankings has Penix as the No. 5 quarterback and McCarthy as the seventh-best player at his position.

The difference in the two rankings illustrates the disparate opinions among experts beyond the top trio of Williams, Maye and Daniels, who are surefire locks to be taken in the first round. Once you delve into the tier of Penix, McCarthy and Bo Nix, opinions wildly vary from team to team and expert to expert.

Penix, who finished second behind Daniels in Heisman Trophy voting, has a lengthy injury history, long throwing motion and will turn 24 before he ever takes an NFL snap. He's more than a year older than Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud and was part of the same high school class as Trevor Lawrence.

Even though Penix has obvious arm talent, it's fair to wonder how much his ascent to stardom was a direct result of him being older and having significantly more experience than his contemporaries. His long delivery will also need to be shortened to avoid getting hit in the pocket at NFL speeds.

McCarthy doesn't have the age concerns—he won't turn 21 until later this month—but his physical leave something to be desired. His 202-pound frame looks slight in the pocket, and he doesn't have elite arm strength.

"I get taken aback by seeing him in person because he's so slight," an NFL scouting director told Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated. "He looks like a stretched-out Bryce Young. Now, that said, he's as tough and competitive as they come."

Playing on a loaded Michigan team, there were times when McCarthy would take a backseat and simply hand the ball off and let the ground game do the work. McCarthy threw for just 140 yards on 10-of-18 passing against Washington. Teams that like McCarthy will point to his moxie in the pocket, accuracy on intermediate passes and ability to quickly process his first read.

That said, it's likely the teams at the top of this class are glad they won't have to sift through the second-tier quarterbacks in this class to find their next franchise face.