3 Bold Predictions for Cowboys in 2023-24 NFL Playoff Matchup vs. Packers
The Dallas Cowboys' road to the Super Bowl start at home when the seventh-seeded Green Bay Packers will head to AT&T stadium looking to play spoiler.
The Cowboys have put together a great regular season. They won the NFC East and have homefield advantage locked up at least until the NFC Championship Game. Now, they have to win to defeat the narrative that they can't come through in the clutch.
The first test will be a 9-8 Packers team that won its final three games of the season to lock up a playoff spot. Jordan Love has continued to get better throughout the season and has only thrown one interception since December started.
The expectation is that the Cowboys should advance. They will have their eyes set on at least making the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1995.
Here are three bold predictions for how the game is going to down on Sunday.
Dak Prescott Throws for over 300 Yards
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Whether it's fair or not, Dak Prescott has been criticized in the past for his performance in the playoffs. The Cowboys have not advanced beyond the divisional round in the Prescott era and he's had some poor performances.
Most notably, he struggled against the 49ers in their 19-12 loss in last year's divisional round. He went 23-of-37 for 206 yards with a touchdown and a pair of costly interceptions.
That has a way of making people forget that he was on point in the wildcard round. He carved up the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the tune of 305 yards and four touchdowns on 25-of-33 passing.
The Packers present another opportunity for Prescott to fight the notion that he can't get it done in the playoffs. Green Bay's defense ranks 28th in dropback success rate and 23rd in dropback EPA.
The Packers secondary allowed over 300 yards to Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff over the final seven weeks of the season. With Prescott hitting the number five times this season, he's more than capable of putting up over 300 yards and should break his personal record of 305 yards in a playoff game.
CeeDee Lamb Goes for over 150 Yards Receiving
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The 2022 divisional round game might not have been Dak Prescott's finest hour, but it was a the best playoff game that CeeDee Lamb had in his young career. He had 117 of the Cowboys 206 yards.
That was a harbinger of things to come. Lamb took another step of dominance this season. He led the league in targets and was fourth in the league in target rate. Prescott has gone to Lamb early and often and he has answered with over 1,700 receiving yards.
The Packers have done a reasonably good job of bottling up opposing receivers. They have only allowed one receiver in the last seven weeks; Chris Godwin had 155 yards on 10 catches in Week 15.
Lamb is capable of having a similar day. Like Godwin, he does a lot of work from the slot and the Cowboys will make sure that the Packers have to account for where he is in the formation on every play.
Lamb has put together some huge games this season. Most notable was a 227-yard game against the Lions in Week 17 in a pivotal game for their chances to win the division and earn a home playoff game.
Now that they have done that, they are going to rely heavily on Lamb throughout the postseason. He should respond with at least 150 yards against the Packers.
Cowboys Win By At Least Two Touchdowns
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The line for this one over at DraftKings Sportsbook is just over a touchdown (Cowboys -7.5). It's one of the biggest lines of the weekend, but the Cowboys are in a good position to comfortably cover.
The Cowboys have been favored by seven or more eight times this season, per Team Rankings. In seven of those eight games, they've won by at least 14 points. By in large, when Dallas has looked like the much better team on paper, they have come through.
Even though this is a playoff matchup, it's still fairly lopsided on paper. The result should reflect that.
The Cowboys are fourth in EPA per play on offense while ranking fifth on defense. Both units are among the best in the league and the Cowboys spent the season chasing the top of the league.
By contrast, the Packers are seventh on offense but rank 20th on defense. Jordan Love has been on a hot streak over the second half of the season, but this will also be his first foray into the postseason.
There's something to be said for experience. Dak Prescott has been here before while Love will be navigating a hostile road playoff atmosphere for the first time in his career.
The Cowboys are 8-0 at home this season and should be 9-0 heading into the divisional round.
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