Each MLB Team's Potential Breakout Star for 2024 Season
Arizona's Corbin Carroll was the unanimous choice for 2023 NL Rookie of the Year, and Texas' Josh Jung might have been in the same boat in the AL if he hadn't missed six weeks with a fractured thumb. Both featured prominently on our 2023 list of breakout candidates before leading their respective teams to the World Series.
Who are this year's young players to keep an eye on as possible stars in the making?
Not everyone on this list still has "Rookie of the Year" eligibility, but each of our breakout candidates is currently 27 years old or younger. Moreover, the vast majority have played less than half a season in the majors, if they've even made their MLB debut yet.
But all 30 could shine in 2024, regardless of whether they seem likely to crack the Opening Day roster.
Breakout candidates are presented in alphabetical order of team location.
Arizona Diamondbacks: OF Alek Thomas
1 of 30
Age: 23
2023 Stats: 125 G, .230/.273/.374, 9 HR, 39 RBI, 9 SB, 1.1 bWAR
With honorable mentions to both highly touted infield prospect Jordan Lawlar and starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt—the latter's breakout beginning in a big way during that run to the World Series—Alek Thomas could be the missing link that propels Arizona to another trip to the Fall Classic.
Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus all had Thomas rated as a top 100 prospect prior to each of the 2020, 2021 and 2022 seasons. He played in both the 2019 and 2021 Futures Games and just generally looked like a phenom throughout his time in the minors, triple-slashing .316/.391/.500 over the course of five seasons. That includes a .348/.409/.518 mark when he got demoted for a month last spring.
He just hasn't quite gotten there yet against MLB pitching. But he did hit four home runs during the postseason, which may have been the catalyst he needed to really break out in 2024.
And if he does, pray tell, what is the weak link in Arizona's lineup?
Atlanta Braves: RHP AJ Smith-Shawver
2 of 30
Age: 21
2023 Stats: 25.1 IP, 4.26 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 0.1 bWAR
Following Atlanta's acquisition of Chris Sale, it's hard to imagine there will be room in the starting rotation for AJ Smith-Shawver, who made a handful of spot starts this past season as a 20-year old.
But, frankly, Smith-Shawver is the only viable breakout candidate for Atlanta, as just about everyone else on the projected Opening Day roster already has broken out. It's why the Braves remain one of the top candidates to win the 2024 World Series no matter how much money the Los Angeles Dodgers spend this offseason.
Smith-Shawver was respectable in his six MLB appearances in 2023, but he was dominant in his 15 minor league starts, posting a 2.76 ERA and an 11.5 K/9.
We'll see if he makes the Opening Day roster or if he's the first arm called up in the event of an injury, but he could be clutch in a long-relief role with occasional starts, similar to what Michael King had been for the New York Yankees over the past three seasons.
Baltimore Orioles: IF Jackson Holliday
3 of 30
Age: 20
2023 Stats (minors): .323/.442/.499, 12 HR, 75 RBI, 24 SB
Jackson Holliday was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 MLB draft and has blown through the minor league ranks like a freight train to Baltimore. He's going to be No. 1 on everyone's preseason ranking of top prospects and he really should be a starting middle infielder from Day No. 1 of the 2024 campaign, provided he doesn't have a disastrous spring training.
It's really just a question of who he bumps out of the starting nine, as the O's don't exactly have any holes in their lineup.
They really like Ramón Urías' glove at third base. If he remains their primary defender of the hot corner, that would make Gunnar Henderson a lock to start at shortstop, with Holliday potentially edging out Jordan Westburg as the starting second baseman. But they'll shake things up to make sure all four of those guys (and Jorge Mateo) get ample playing time.
Assuming he will get enough playing time, Holliday should be the preseason pick for AL ROY, edging out Texas' Evan Carter and Tampa Bay's Junior Caminero.
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Boston Red Sox: OF Wilyer Abreu
4 of 30
Age: 24
2023 Stats: .316/.388/.474, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 3 SB, 0.8 bWAR
There wasn't much positive to be found over the final six weeks of Boston's season, going 9-23 over those last 32 games while cratering to the basement of the AL East. But Wilyer Abreu was an exception to that rule, posting an .862 OPS after getting called up in late August to replace the injured Jarren Duran.
Between Abreu's late-season breakout, Duran's near .300 batting average prior to undergoing turf toe surgery and Justin Turner opting out of the second year of his deal, the Red Sox should be able to transition Masataka Yoshida to a full-time DH role. That's huge, because they definitely signed him to that five-year deal for his bat, not his glove.
With Ceddanne Rafaela waiting in the wings, though, Boston may have a short leash with Abreu. He might even start the year at Triple-A Worcester if Rafaela cracks the Opening Day roster instead. But Abreu should make a real impact for the Red Sox this season after hitting 57 home runs in the minors over the past three years.
Chicago Cubs: OF Pete Crow-Armstrong
5 of 30
Age: 21
2023 Stats: 19 PA, .000/.176/.000, 2 SB, -0.1 bWAR
The baseball community went nuts over Pete Crow-Armstrong's call-up this past September, somewhat because of his immense potential, but mostly because his mom was the mom in Little Big League and we can't help but be nostalgic about a 30-year-old movie.
While we're at it, might as well also harken back to the 1993 classic Rookie of the Year, as this could also be another tale of a young Cub taking MLB by storm.
Crow-Armstrong's very limited MLB stats in 2023 were pathetic, but he hit .283/.365/.511 with 20 home runs and 37 stolen bases in 107 games played between Double-A and Triple-A this past season.
Unless the Cubs manage to re-sign Cody Bellinger, PC-A should get a lot of starts in center field. It might initially be Mike Tauchman's job to lose, but give me the 21-year-old supplanting the 33-year-old as the primary starter by Memorial Day.
Chicago White Sox: TBD Former Atlanta SP
6 of 30
Touki Toussaint (27)
2023 Stats: 87.0 IP, 4.97 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 1.0 bWAR
Michael Soroka (26)
2023 Stats: 32.1 IP, 6.40 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, -0.4 bWAR
Jared Shuster (25)
2023 Stats: 52.2 IP, 5.81 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 5.1 K/9, -0.1 bWAR
Beyond Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech, Chicago's starting rotation is one great big unknown.
Touki Toussaint, who spent his first four seasons with Atlanta prior to resurfacing with the White Sox in June, made 15 starts for Chicago last season and might be the de facto No. 3 starter. And after acquiring both Michael Soroka and Jared Shuster in the process of trading Aaron Bummer to Atlanta, it's plausible they'll be No. 4 and No. 5 in the rotation.
Free agent acquisitions Erick Fedde and Chris Flexen will also be in the mix for starting gigs, but it is likely that at least one former Atlanta starter gets as many innings as he can handle for the 2024 White Sox.
Of the trio, Shuster is the most likely breakout candidate, if only because he doesn't have Soroka's injury history or Toussaint's five consecutive seasons with an ERA of 4.50 or worse. But Soroka used to be special when healthy, and Toussaint was a highly touted prospect a few moons ago.
Let's also toss an honorable mention to Chicago's 2021 first-round draft pick, shortstop Colson Montgomery. However, it'd be a surprise if they call up their top prospect, which would begin his service-time clock in what figures to be a season spent among the American League's basement dwellers.
Cincinnati Reds: RHP Connor Phillips
7 of 30
Age: 22
2023 Stats: 20.2 IP, 6.97 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, -0.2 bWAR
If we can agree that Noelvi Marte (hit .316 in 35 games played in 2023) and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (13 HR in 63 games played in 2023) have already broken out to some extent, Cincinnati doesn't really have a positional player candidate here.
The Reds do have one very intriguing pitcher, though.
We'll see if and where Connor Phillips factors into the mix after the free agent acquisitions of Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez. But in each of 2022 and 2023, Phillips pitched at least 100 innings in the minors with a sub-4.00 ERA and a K/9 north of 12.0.
It got him a September call-up, in which he did make a pair of impressive starts for a team trying to claw its way to a playoff spot.
Phillips does desperately need to get the walks under control—a known issue long before his final appearance of 2023, in which he got pulled after walking three batters without throwing a single strike. But when he's honed in and able to make it at least five innings without walking five batters, he has the chance to be special.
Cleveland Guardians: SS Brayan Rocchio
8 of 30
Age: 23
2023 Stats: .247/.279/.321, 0 HR, 0 SB, 0.1 bWAR
Brayan Rocchio had a couple of cups of coffee in the majors last season, getting called up on four separate occasions and playing in 23 games.
He never really cemented his spot at shortstop, though.
Even after the Guardians traded away Amed Rosario, they continued to give Gabriel Arias and José Tena starts there while Rocchio racked up nearly seven times as many strikeouts (27) as walks drawn (four) and neither homered nor stole a base—compared to a combined total of 40 dingers and 60 swipes over the past three seasons in the minors.
Unless the Guardians manage to trade Shane Bieber for a middle infielder, though, 2024 will be Rocchio's year to take the reins at shortstop.
He is a much better extra-bases hitter than what he showed with Cleveland last season. In fact, in a similar sample size (20 games) of Venezuelan Winter League ball, he had an OPS (.998) darn near 400 points greater than what he posted with the Guardians (.600). He's a big-time breakout candidate.
Colorado Rockies: RHP Ryan Feltner
9 of 30
Age: 27
2023 Stats: 43.1 IP, 5.82 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 0.2 bWAR
When it comes to pitching in Colorado—where all 10 Rockies who made at least five starts in 2023 posted an ERA north of 5.00—"breakout candidate" is a seriously relative term.
But Ryan Feltner had a lot of potential prior to suffering that terrifying skull fracture on a Nick Castellanos liner in May.
Between Double-A and Triple-A, Feltner had a 3.48 ERA and a 9.9 K/9 over the past three seasons and made a few impressive starts with the Rockies last season.
And he did make it back from that head injury, even going five scoreless innings against the Padres in late September.
With both Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela likely out until at least July while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Feltner should get quite a few turns through the rotation to possibly lock down a job for the long haul.
Detroit Tigers: IF Andre Lipcius
10 of 30
Age: 25
2023 Stats: .286/.342/.400, 1 HR, 4 RBI, -0.3 bWAR
Aside from Spencer Torkelson at first base, Detroit's infield situation...isn't great.
Javier Báez will continue to play shortstop since they're paying him so much money, and Andy Ibáñez just might be the answer at second base. But the hot corner—where eight different Tigers made at least eight starts last season—is wide open for someone to burst onto the scene.
Enter: Andre Lipcius.
A utility infielder who started anywhere and everywhere over the past few years, Lipcius hit .302 in Triple-A in 2022 as well as .272 last year before hitting .286 as a September call-up.
He's not going to club 30 homers or steal 30 bases, but he does have some power, hitting exactly 12 home runs in the minors in each of the past three seasons. And with 86 walks against 89 strikeouts in 2022, his ability to get on base could land him a regular spot at No. 2 in the order ahead of Kerry Carpenter and Torkelson.
Houston Astros: OF Jake Meyers
11 of 30
Age: 27
2023 Stats: .227/.296/.382, 10 HR, 33 RBI, 5 SB, 1.6 bWAR
Houston already had several breakout rookie pitchers last season, has perhaps the most non-debatable starting nine in the majors and doesn't have a top-100 prospect, per MLB.com. That makes it tough to identify a breakout candidate for the Astros.
How about center fielder Jake Meyers, though?
In 213 career games in the majors, he has provided solid defense, but with a .675 OPS that leaves a lot to be desired. During that same window, Aledmys Díaz and Luis Guillorme have also posted a .675 OPS, which isn't saying much.
But Meyers raked in Sugar Land.
In 106 career games in Triple-A between 2021 and 2022, he triple-slashed .330/.407/.566 with 23 home runs. He just hasn't tapped into that potential yet in the big leagues.
If Meyers continues to struggle at the dish, Mauricio Dubón might take the reins as the primary center fielder. But the Astros want Meyers to be the guy.
Kansas City Royals: OF/DH Nelson Velázquez
12 of 30
Age: 24
2023 Stats: .235/.302/.586, 17 HR, 34 RBI, 1.2 bWAR
In sending reliever José Cuas to the Cubs at last year's trade deadline, the Royals got back Nelson Velázquez, who had hit just nine home runs in 90 career games played with Chicago.
But instead of one dinger for every 10 games played, he blossomed in Kansas City into a slugger who went yard darn near once for every 10 trips to the plate, launching 14 home runs in 147 plate appearances with the Royals.
Velázquez always had that potential. He slugged .536 as an 18-year-old in rookie ball back in 2017. And in the first two years after losing 2020 to the pandemic, he had 35 home runs and 105 RBI in a combined 159 minor-league games played.
He wasted no time in proving himself to the Royals, homering off Adam Wainwright on the second pitch that he saw in a powder blue uniform.
At that point, though, the Royals were already 38-80, so his late-season breakout flew well below the national radar. He should get much more attention this year if he continues to mash.
Los Angeles Angels: SS Zach Neto
13 of 30
Age: 22
2023 Stats: .225/.308/.377, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 5 SB, 1.6 bWAR
Zach Neto lasted all of seven games at Double-A Rocket City this past season before the Angels called up their 2022 first-round draft pick in mid-April.
At the time, he was hitting .444 with a 1.374 OPS. And given his 1.251 OPS in 100 career games played in college, we can't very well fault the Halos for thinking he might also immediately start raking in the majors.
However, he didn't homer until his 23rd big-league game and ended the season with a .685 OPS—less than half of what he managed for that incredible week in Double-A.
Neto did hit nine home runs in 84 games played, though, and was really starting to heat up in June (.355/.444/.710) before he landed on the IL for a month with an oblique injury.
It won't even begin to replace Shohei Ohtani's impact in the lineup, but Neto could easily hit 25 home runs and just might lead the Angels in that department if A) he stays healthy while B) Mike Trout does not.
(Shoutout to 2023 first-round pick Nolan Schanuel, too. He had a .402 OBP in 29 games played with the Angels, but the young first baseman who had an .868 slugging percentage at Florida Atlantic last year could enjoy quite the breakout in what is still technically his rookie season.)
Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Emmet Sheehan
14 of 30
Age: 24
2023 Stats: 60.1 IP, 4.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 0.3 bWAR
Despite the sheer amount of expensive retooling the Dodgers have done this offseason, the No. 5 spot in their 2024 starting rotation is still up for grabs.
We certainly expect their big four to be Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller. But with Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May (and free agent Clayton Kershaw) out at least until the summer, it's going to be up to some combination of Michael Grove, Ryan Yarbrough, Gavin Stone and Emmet Sheehan to hold down that No. 5 fort.
My money is on Sheehan, who went six hitless innings in his MLB debut last June before starting to really showcase his strikeout stuff toward the end of the campaign.
A couple of dud outings tanked his overall stats, but putting together a line of 13.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 24 K over his final three regular season appearances sure felt like the start of a breakout for a budding star who averaged 14.9 K/9 over his three seasons in the minors.
Miami Marlins: RHP Max Meyer
15 of 30
Age: 24
2023 Stats: DNP (Tommy John surgery)
Max Meyer was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft. The flame-throwing righty blazed through the minors in 2021-22, making 35 starts with a 2.77 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 10.4 K/9 before getting called up to Miami.
Unfortunately, he lasted just six innings with the Marlins before needing Tommy John surgery in August 2022, causing him to miss the entire 2023 campaign.
There was hope that Meyer might at least be able to get some fall ball work in, more than 14 months removed from the operation, but it wasn't meant to be.
However, that doesn't mean he won't be back in time for spring training and possibly the Opening Day rotation.
At any rate, it would seem Miami is counting on Meyer being back if it is legitimately considering trading away Jesús Luzardo—though it's been weeks since that trade block news first popped up and might no longer be on the table.
Could be a sneaky good value pick for NL ROY.
Milwaukee Brewers: OF Jackson Chourio
16 of 30
Age: 19
2023 Stats (minors): .283/.338/.467, 22 HR, 91 RBI, 44 SB
I mean, the Brewers didn't give Jackson Chourio $82 million before playing a single game in the majors just to keep him down in Triple-A, right?
And while Chourio's minor-league numbers were solid in 2023, his Venezuelan Winter League numbers were absurd. He hit .204 against that competition during the 2021-22 offseason and .256 last year, but .379 this year. Only one home run in those 17 games, but he was darn near impossible to retire.
Chourio could be this year's Corbin Carroll, boasting 25 HR / 50 SB potential. And after the Brewers traded away both Mark Canha and Tyrone Taylor this offseason—and after last year's primary center fielder, Joey Wiemer, hit .204—there's not exactly anything standing in the way of this soon-to-be 20-year-old locking down an everyday job.
The Dodgers' $325 million man Yoshinobu Yamamoto will almost certainly be the preseason favorite for NL ROY, but Chourio may well win it.
Minnesota Twins: RHP David Festa
17 of 30
Age: 23
2023 Stats (minors): 92.1 IP, 4.19 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 11.6 K/9
With Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda out of the picture and Minnesota seemingly not wanting to spend a dime this offseason, the Twins might be turning to some rookies to round out the starting rotation beyond Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.
Maybe Chris Paddack gets one of those spots after missing the vast majority of the past two seasons after his second Tommy John surgery, but that would still leave an opening for David Festa, who represented Minnesota in the 2023 Futures Game and who has been a strikeout machine over the past three years.
It'd be a bit of a surprise if he cracks the Opening Day roster after making just three starts at Triple-A toward the end of last season, but maybe he does enough in spring training to make the cut.
Watch out for shortstop Brooks Lee, too. The No. 8 overall pick in the 2022 draft spent a good chunk of last season at Triple-A and could be ready if someone gets hurt or if they shed a bit of salary by trading away Jorge Polanco.
New York Mets: 3B Brett Baty
18 of 30
Age: 24
2023 Stats: .212/.275/.323, 9 HR, 34 RBI, -0.8 bWAR
Over the past two seasons, Brett Baty has been a force of nature...in the minors.
In 121 games played between Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Syracuse, he hit 29 home runs, batting north of .300 with an OPS around .920.
But in 119 games played with the big-league Mets, Baty has just 11 home runs, a .210 batting average and a sub-.600 OPS.
Jarred Kelenic was in the same boat in 2021 and 2022 for Seattle—unstoppable in Triple-A; unplayable in the majors—before finally starting to live up to the hype in 2023.
Perhaps Baty enjoys a similar breakout in 2024? (Preferably without the broken foot from kicking a water cooler, though.)
Fellow infielder Ronny Mauricio is also a big-time breakout candidate. He had a combined 49 home runs and 44 stolen bases over the past two seasons in the minors, and he did have two dingers and seven swipes as a September call-up. He may well be the primary second baseman if the Mets are still OK with Jeff McNeil manning a corner outfield spot.
(Post-publish mea culpa: I completely forgot that Mauricio tore his ACL in December. He's likely going to miss most, if not all of the upcoming season. But if he makes it back for a month or two, he has the potential to be a difference-maker for the Mets.)
New York Yankees: RHP Yoendrys Gómez
19 of 30
Age: 24
2023 Stats (minors): 65.1 IP, 3.58 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10.7 K/9
Yoendrys Gómez did make one appearance in the majors late last season, going two scoreless innings with four strikeouts against the Blue Jays.
A little sneak preview of things to come, perhaps?
Since signing with the Yankees as a 16-year-old, Gómez has a 3.44 ERA over the course of six minor-league seasons.
Durability is very much a question mark, as last year was the first time this starting pitcher either logged at least 60 innings or made at least 16 appearances in a season.
Maybe they can use him in the same way that they used Michael King in 2023, though. King made a lot of multiple-inning appearances in the first few months of the season, but he consistently threw fewer than 45 pitches per appearance until they opted to stretch him out as a starter in late August. And now that King is in San Diego, that middle/long-reliever gig is open.
Oakland Athletics: C Shea Langeliers
20 of 30
Age: 26
2023 Stats: .205/.268/.413, 22 HR, 63 RBI, 1.1 bWAR
Shea Langeliers did hit 22 home runs last season, but there is plenty more breakout potential for the catcher who Oakland believed in enough to trade away Sean Murphy last offseason.
Among the 168 players who recorded at least 450 plate appearances in 2023, Langeliers had the third-worst batting average and the second-worst on-base percentage. But this slugging catcher was good-not-great in both of those departments in the minors and should be able to make some serious strides in his second full season in the majors.
And while 22 home runs was nice, he actually homered at a 162-game pace of 44 over his final 44 games, slugging .521 during that stretch compared to .364 up until the trade deadline.
Similar to Kansas City's Nelson Velázquez, it was a late-season power flourish that kind of went unnoticed on a team that was already dead and buried. But there's a good chance Langeliers will be Oakland's representative at the 2024 All-Star Game.
Philadelphia Phillies: CF Johan Rojas
21 of 30
Age: 23
2023 Stats: .302/.342/.430, 2 HR, 23 RBI, 14 SB, 2.5 bWAR
From a wins above replacement perspective, Johan Rojas already broke out in a big way as a rookie. At 2.5 bWAR, he was tied with Taijuan Walker as Philadelphia's seventh-most valuable player in 2023.
But he didn't get called up until mid-July and only started 40 games during the regular season, frequently used as either a pinch runner or a defensive replacement.
It was as if even the Phillies didn't even appreciate how valuable he was until mid-September, and then started him in center field in each of their 13 postseason games.
Like Oakland's Shea Langeliers, plenty of room for more breakout, as he figures to be the everyday starter in center this season.
Rojas' speed and value added on defense are no joke. Including fall ball last year, he has stolen 119 bags across all levels since the beginning of 2022, and was only caught 14 times. That speed might contribute to a few Gold Glove awards.
And he might even hit for more power in 2024. Rojas had nine home runs in 354 plate appearances when he got the call to the majors, and the two that he hit with the Phillies were both no-doubters.
Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Paul Skenes
22 of 30
Age: 21
2023 Stats (college): 122.2 IP, 1.69 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 15.3 K/9
Paul Skenes did make a couple of brief minor-league appearances after going No. 1 overall in the draft, but the statistics from those 6.2 innings pitched aren't even worth mentioning. Pittsburgh saw all it needed to see from Skenes as he dominated for LSU en route to the College World Series title.
Will the Pirates rush him to the big leagues by putting him on the Opening Day roster?
Depends on how spring training goes, but probably not, right?
Unless they're of the mindset that they will actually contend for a playoff spot this season and need every win they can get right away, they might as well let Skenes make a few starts in Triple-A while they figure out who belongs in the starting rotation alongside Mitch Keller. And then maybe sometime in May—unless he really struggles in Indianapolis in April—call up Skenes and introduce him to the NL Rookie of the Year conversation.
At some point in the first half of the season, though, he's likely to get the call and could immediately take the world by storm like Stephen Strasburg did back in June 2010.
(Honorable mention to SS Oneil Cruz, who should have been Pittsburgh's breakout guy last year but lasted just nine games before suffering a broken ankle. Maybe 2024 will finally be his time to shine.)
San Diego Padres: OF José Azocar
23 of 30
Age: 27
2023 Stats: .231/.278/.363, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 8 SB, 0.1 bWAR
Since making his MLB debut on Opening Day 2022, José Azocar has been perpetually stuck in a backup role, making just 78 starts despite spending the bulk of the past two seasons on the Padres roster.
But after trading away both Juan Soto and Trent Grisham, Azocar is presently on track for an all-you-can-eat buffet of playing time.
This is bound to change before Opening Day with so many outfielders still available as free agents, but Azocar and Fernando Tatis Jr. are the only outfielders on the roster right now.
And even if the Padres sign two outfielders, it's unlikely either of them will be the "plug them into the lineup as often as possible" assets that Soto (for his bat) and Grisham (for his glove) were, meaning Azocar would still get quite a bit of playing time as the fourth outfielder.
In 121 career games played at the Triple-A level, Azocar hit .284 with 10 home runs and 38 stolen bases. He's not going to suddenly blossom into an All-Star, but he definitely could be more productive than he has been to this point in his MLB career.
San Francisco Giants: LHP Kyle Harrison
24 of 30
Age: 22
2023 Stats: 34.2 IP, 4.15 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 0.2 bWAR
A third-round pick in the 2020 draft, Kyle Harrison quickly emerged as a top pitching prospect in the Giants farm system.
Before getting the call to San Francisco last August, the dominant southpaw made at least 20 minor-league starts with a K/9 north of 14 in each of 2021, 2022 and 2023.
And in the second start of his MLB career, he blanked a potent Reds offense for 6.1 innings with 11 strikeouts. Harrison later ended the season by going five hitless innings against the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers.
The overall numbers from his seven starts were nothing special, but the sky-high ceiling is undeniable. Harrison should be no worse than San Francisco's No. 3 starter behind both Logan Webb and Alex Cobb, and he may well be their undisputed ace by the end of 2024.
(With fewer than 50 innings pitched in 2023, Harrison does still qualify as a rookie...in case you're into preseason Rookie of the Year bets.)
Seattle Mariners: IF Ryan Bliss
25 of 30
Age: 24
2023 Stats (minors): .304/.378/.524, 23 HR, 86 RBI, 55 SB
After trading Eugenio Suárez to Arizona and shipping José Caballero to Tampa Bay, it looks as though Seattle is going to be banking on Josh Rojas at second base and Luis Urías at third base—both of whom were happily given away by their former teams at last year's trade deadline with negative wins above replacement.
So, you know, good luck with that, Mariners?
They don't have much MLB-ready talent down on the farm, either, though middle infielder Ryan Bliss—who went to Seattle along with Rojas in the Paul Sewald trade—is a pretty big exception to that rule.
Arizona's second-round pick in the 2021 draft hit the cover off the ball at Double-A Amarillo before going for 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases with Seattle's Triple-A affiliate in Tacoma.
Batting .304 with 23 home runs and 55 stolen bases in a season in the minors is impressive for anyone. It's especially impressive for a middle infielder, though, and particularly noteworthy for Seattle, where second base was a black hole in 2023.
Perhaps the only way he's not in the majors by June 1 is if both Rojas and Urías are unexpectedly great through the first two months.
St. Louis Cardinals: SS Masyn Winn
26 of 30
Age: 21
2023 Stats: .172/.230/.238, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 2 SB, -0.6 bWAR
Masyn Winn's foray into the majors last season was less than spectacular, to say the least.
But at least he got those growing pains out of the way, making 36 starts late in what was a lost season for the Cardinals.
Perhaps now he can become the budding star who had a line of .283/.364/.468 in 119 minor-league games played in 2022, and a nearly identical line of .288/.358/.474 in 105 games before getting called up.
Winn had 30 home runs and 60 stolen bases in those 224 games, so going for just two of each in 36 MLB games wasn't much of a sign of what's to come. And if he's able to break through in 2024, it will be a huge part of St. Louis' return to relevance.
The Cardinals are hopeful that 2018 first-round pick Matthew Liberatore finally lives up to the hype this year, too. Though they signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson to address their pitching woes, Liberatore easily could edge out Steven Matz for the No. 5 spot in the rotation with a strong spring.
Tampa Bay Rays: IF Junior Caminero
27 of 30
Age: 20
2023 Stats: .235/.278/.353, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 0.0 bWAR
It's hard to imagine at this point that Wander Franco will be starting at shortstop for the Rays in 2024 (if ever again).
But it's also hard to imagine the franchise will be upset with its opportunity to turn Junior Caminero loose on MLB pitching.
With just one week remaining in the regular season, Tampa Bay made the surprising decision to call up its top prospect, starting Caminero (at four different positions, including DH) in each of their final seven games of the regular season before using him as a pinch hitter in both of their postseason games.
In that minuscule sample size, Caminero had one opposite-field home run in Toronto, as well as a 401-foot bullet of a left-center double in Boston that would have been a home run in most parks without a Green Monster.
That was no surprise from a phenom who mashed 31 home runs in 117 minor-league games in 2023. (That's a 162-game pace of 43 homers.) He's going to be a very fun rookie to watch.
Texas Rangers: OF Wyatt Langford
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Age: 22
2023 Stats: .235/.278/.353, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 0.0 bWAR
Evan Carter's breakout already happened. He posted a 1.058 OPS over his 23 games played in the regular season before racking up a .917 OPS while starting every game of Texas' run to a World Series title.
But are we even sure Carter is the best AL Rookie of the Year candidate in the Rangers organization?
Texas took Wyatt Langford No. 4 overall in last June's draft, and he merely hit .360/.480/.677 with 10 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 44 games while soaring right through the farm system to Triple-A Round Rock.
Texas' outfield spots seem to be pretty set in Carter, Leody Taveras and Adolis García, but the DH spot is open. And are we sure they wouldn't move Carter to center and Taveras to the bench (or trade block) to make room for Langford if they feel he's ready?
Let's just say I'm already planning on stashing Langford with my final-round fantasy pick in a couple of months.
Toronto Blue Jays: LHP Ricky Tiedemann
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Age: 21
2023 Stats (minors): 44.0 IP, 3.68 ERA, 1.223 WHIP, 16.8 K/9
In an ideal world where Alek Manoah bounces back from a horrific 2023 campaign and resecures a spot in the starting rotation, Toronto won't need Ricky Tiedemann in the big leagues in 2024.
Keeping the 21-year-old in Buffalo and getting him stretched out down there until Yusei Kikuchi hits free agency next winter would be swell.
But given the sheer volume of strikeouts that their top prospect has stacked up over the past two years, maybe the Blue Jays won't be so patient.
In addition to all of the whiffs, Tiedemann has done a remarkable job of keeping the ball in the yard, allowing just five home runs in 140.2 innings of work across all levels since Toronto took him in the third round of the 2021 draft.
That's an HR/9 rate of 0.32, which is Mariano Rivera-like.
Washington Nationals: One of the Two Highly Touted Outfield Prospects
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James Wood (21)
2023 Stats (minors): .262/.353/.520, 26 HR, 91 RBI, 18 SB
Dylan Crews (21)
2023 Stats (minors): .292/.377/.467, 5 HR, 29 RBI, 4 SB
Two of the top prospects in all of baseball finished this past season in the outfield for the Double-A Harrisburg Senators.
One is James Wood, who went from San Diego to Washington in the first Juan Soto blockbuster trade. The other is Dylan Crews, who was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 draft after hitting .380/.498/.689 in his three years at LSU.
Both will be names to monitor in spring training as candidates to crack the Opening Day roster.
Stone Garrett and Lane Thomas did have breakout years for the Nationals in 2023, but there is definitely room on the roster for both Wood and Crews if Washington thinks they're ready.
They brought back Victor Robles for another year, but with a .225 batting average over the past four years, he isn't going to stand in the way of a potential many-time All-Star getting a starting job. And with Dom Smith getting non-tendered, Joey Meneses figures to become the full-time first baseman, leaving a vacancy at DH.
Forced to pick one breakout candidate before spring training, though, let's go with Wood, who was way more potent with Harrisburg last season than Crews was.
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