NFL Picks Week 18: Best Favorites to Bet Before Odds Change
Week 18 is set to kick off on Saturday with a pair of games that carry playoff implications. The Pittsburgh Steelers will visit the Baltimore Ravens in the early game, while the Houston Texans will visit the Indianapolis Colts in the second.
Pittsburgh needs a win (and help) to reach the postseason, while the winner of the Texans-Colt tilt will punch a ticket to the playoffs. If the Jacksonville Jaguars go on to lose on Sunday, the winner of Colts-Texans will also win the AFC South.
With several teams, including Baltimore, likely to rest starters in the final week, predicting winners might be difficult. However, we'll dive into the matchups and the latest buzz to identify three favorites we like entering the weekend.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Steelers -3.5 at Ravens
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The Steelers have played much better football over the last couple of weeks, with the change to quarterback Mason Rudolph playing a major role. Rudolph has helped unlock the downfield passing game, which has, in turn, raised the potency of Pittsburgh's offense overall.
Back-to-back wins over the Cincinnati Bengals and Seattle Seahawks have the Steelers in the playoff conversation again. Pittsburgh still needs a loss from either the Buffalo Bills or Jaguars—a Texans-Colts tie would also do it—but everything starts with a win in this one.
The Ravens have already announced that they'll rest quarterback Lamar Jackson and other starters.
"ust all things considered, it seemed to be the right thing to do," head coach John Harbaugh said, per Mark Viviano of CBS News Baltimore.
While quarterback Tyler Huntley and other Ravens backups may keep things interesting, Pittsburgh's starters should get the job done. The Steelers won the first meeting with the Ravens, and they're arguably a more complete team now.
This isn't a large line, considering one team isn't particularly interested in winning. The Steelers are, and they should cover.
Patriots -2.5 Versus Jets
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We still don't know what the future holds for New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick. However, there's a very real chance that Sunday's game will be his last with New England. It would certainly feel appropriate to see Belichick go out by tormenting the New York Jets one final time.
The Patriots haven't lost to the Jets since 2015.
New England has also gotten an offensive spark from quarterback Bailey Zappe, and its defense has really solidified down the stretch. The Patriots have won two of their last four and played very respectably in losses to the Bills and Kansas City Chiefs over the last month.
New York is again set to start Trevor Siemian at quarterback, and we can likely expect the Jets' offensive struggles to continue.
While the Jets defense is solid, New England's is playing at a higher level right now. The Patriots have home-field advantage and the coaching advantage. After winning by five points in the first meeting of 2023, New England is poised to provide a similar result in the rematch.
Cowboys -13 at Commanders
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This is a huge line for a divisional game, but it might not be large enough. The Dallas Cowboys can win the NFC's No. 2 seed and a division title by beating the Washington Commanders, and Dallas is equipped to win big.
Quarterback Dak Prescott is playing at a near-MVP level this season, and the Cowboys are loaded with pass-catching playmakers like CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup and Jake Ferguson.
The Commanders, meanwhile, have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. While Dallas has played much better at home this season, it has a very real chance to top 40 points—something the team did in the first meeting with Washington.
With Sam Howell getting the start for Washington, the Commanders will have a hard time keeping pace. Howell can push the ball down the field, but he's also been mistake-prone this season (21 turnovers).
Expect the Cowboys to end their regular season on a high note, by beating the Commanders on the road by at least a couple of touchdowns.
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