Last-Minute NFL Coaching Carousel Predictions Ahead of Black Monday
Eighteen teams' seasons will end Sunday, and soon after that some coaching tenures will also die.
Happens every year, often on what we in NFL circles call Black Monday.
There are already three head coaching vacancies, but let's speculate on who might join Josh McDaniels, Brandon Staley and Frank Reich in the Fired Coaches Club, as well as who will land where for the 2024 season.
The Chargers Are Well-Positioned to Make a Splash with Jim Harbaugh
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Jim Harbaugh makes so much sense for a Los Angeles Chargers team that needs to get it right in replacing Staley.
They're paying 25-year-old quarterback Justin Herbert a heck of a lot of money ($218.7 million guaranteed) and not getting close to enough return on investment. The team went 5-8 in games started by Herbert this season, and it's no secret that Harbaugh is somewhat of a quarterback whisperer. Just as he worked magic with Alex Smith, Andrew Luck and Colin Kaepernick, Harbaugh can bring Herbert to that next level.
Will Harbaugh make the move? It sure seems like it. The former San Francisco 49ers head coach has reportedly hired an agent with deep NFL ties, and a California-based team with an ace quarterback and enough talent to contend seems quite appropriate.
Antonio Pierce Has Earned the Raiders Job
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Interim head coach Antonio Pierce hasn't totally turned the Las Vegas Raiders around, but the vibe surrounding the team has taken a sharp and promising turn during his time as McDaniels' replacement.
Under Pierce, the Raiders have put up a respectable 4-4 record despite having rookie fourth-round pick Aidan O'Connell at quarterback. And that stretch includes back-to-back signature performances: a jaw-dropping 63-21 victory over the Chargers in Week 15 and a mega-upset of the juggernaut Kansas City Chiefs in a prime-time road game.
Harbaugh should definitely be a consideration for the Raiders, too, but I'm not sure he'd be as tempted by that job and there is plenty of reason to be encouraged by what Pierce has brought to the table.
Ben Johnson Makes a Lot of Sense in Carolina
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It might not be as sexy, but the Carolina Panthers need to bring in somebody who can grow with 2023 No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young, who has underperformed as a rookie.
The highly touted 37-year-old Ben Johnson offers that, as well as a great resume featuring his work taking Jared Goff to the next level with the Detroit Lions.
According to Pro Football Network's Adam Caplan, Johnson's name will "top" Carolina's list. And assuming Johnson is good working under fiery Panthers owner David Tepper, the fit and timing seem right.
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Regarding the Rest of the NFC South...
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This might be it for Arthur Smith in Atlanta
"Might" isn't much of a prediction, right? But the hedge is only because the Atlanta Falcons might still make the playoffs. That's unlikely, though, and I don't think Falcons owner Arthur Blank will let Smith get away with a third consecutive double-digit-loss season.
If the Falcons lose Sunday, or even if they win but miss the playoffs anyway, look for Blank to either can both Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot, or have Fontenot replace Smith.
As for Smith's replacement? I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the well-deserving Eric Bieniemy land this job if he doesn't replace Ron Rivera in Washington.
Dennis Allen should be safe in New Orleans
Even if the New Orleans Saints miss the playoffs, this was Year 2 for Allen running a team that has bled talent in recent years and has not been able to gain stability at quarterback.
Look for 2024 to be do-or-die for both Allen and Derek Carr in New Orleans.
Expect 2024 to be a prove-it season for Todd Bowles in Tampa
Same deal here even if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers miss out. Bowles has only had two years on the job with a roster that isn't close to as talented as it used to be. He also runs a top-10 scoring defense, so it's not time to panic yet if you're GM Jason Licht.
In New England (and in the NFL?), the Bill Belichick Era Is About to Conclude
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Even before NBC Sports Boston's Tom E. Curran reported last month that Bill Belichick would not be brought back for the New England Patriots' 2024 season, that development felt like a fait accompli.
My money's on the two parties "mutually parting ways" in the coming weeks, with Belichick riding off into the sunset because he's likely realized he can't come close to the highs that dominated his long tenure in New England.
I really don't think they can go the Josh McDaniels route, considering his lack of success elsewhere. Instead, reports that current defensive coordinator Jerod Mayo is the guy make sense. He's on the rise at age 37, and New England's defense actually ranks sixth in the NFL.
Watch for the Commanders to Clean House
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Ron Rivera's firing is quite widely expected, and it's hard to fault new ownership for desiring a change after a fourth consecutive losing season for Rivera in D.C. The more interesting situation might involve Eric Bieniemy, who also hasn't gotten stellar results in his first year as offensive coordinator there.
It would be a little odd for owner Josh Harris to move on from both Rivera and general manager Martin Mayhew (whose results have obviously matched Rivera's since he was hired in 2021) while keeping Bieniemy. Still, it's a possibility considering the 54-year-old coordinator's track record from Kansas City.
I'd love to see Brian Flores get another head coaching gig in this league, especially if that shot were to come from a rogue new owner. I'll make that prediction not only because it makes sense, but because I'm rooting for the storyline.
As for the Bottom Half of the NFC North...
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Matt Eberflus deserves another year in Chicago
This is simple. The Chicago Bears improved significantly in Eberflus' second season, at least in terms of wins and defensive rankings (he comes from a defensive background). What more can you ask for? This was never going to be an overnight rebuild.
Ditto for Kevin O'Connell in Minnesota
Dude won 13 games in his maiden season and then lost his starting quarterback for much of his sophomore campaign with the Minnesota Vikings. Luck was on his side in 2022 and then the opposite happened in 2023. Let's see how things play out in 2024.
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