Commanders' Rooting Guide for 2024 NFL Draft Implications of Week 18

Most fans of the Washington Commanders will have a closer watch on the 2024 NFL draft order than the scoreboard in their Week 18 matchup with the Dallas Cowboys.

While the Cowboys are aiming to lock up the NFC East and earn a home playoff game, the Commanders are simply looking to end their season. They go into the week as one of the three teams with a 4-12 record.

Right now, their strength of schedule is the weakest, which gives them the No. 2 pick.

For the Commanders to retain that pick over the weekend they obviously need to lose to the Cowboys, but it would help for a few other games to break their way.

Here's a look at three results that would help them secure that pick and have the opportunity to draft one of the top two quarterbacks in the draft.

Patriots over Jets

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Bill Belichick

This is the big one. The Patriots are easily the Commanders' biggest rival in the final week of the season. They have the same record, are likely in the market for a quarterback and are only losing the Strength of Schedule battle by the thinnest of margins.

According to Tankathon, the Commanders (.515) are just ahead of the Patriots (.518) in the tiebreaker. That could easily change with a few results on Sunday even if both teams lose.

The most simple solution is that the Patriots beat the Jets.

New England has had its struggles, but there's reason to believe the Patriots could come through for the Commanders' faithful. For one, it could be Bill Belichick's final game with New England. Speculation and rumors have been around for much of the season that the team will part ways with the coach that won them six Super Bowls.

If the relationship between Belichick and owner Robert Kraft has truly soured, it would be fitting for Belichick to go out with a win that messes up the Patriots chances of landing Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.

It also helps that they are matched up with the Jets. ESPN Analytics actually favors the Patriots and gives them a 54.2 percent chance to win the game.

The Jets were competitive at times this season, but they are now starting Trevor Siemian at quarterback and have lost seven of their last nine games.

A Patriots win with a Commanders loss virtually guarantees the second pick goes to Washington.

Cardinals over Seahawks

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Kyler Murray

This one is less about securing the No. 2 pick. The Cardinals and Commanders have the same 4-12 record, but there's a pretty good cushion in strength of schedule that Washington will win the tiebreaker.

However, a Cardinals win would still have an impact on Washington's second-rounder. Ties are broken in the first round by strength of schedule, but then the order is flipped in the second and subsequent rounds.

That means that a three-way tie between the Cardinals, Patriots and Commanders would have the Commanders selecting 36th in the second round instead of 34th.

That might not seem like a big deal, but the early second round is often a place where valuable trades can happen. With multiple rebuilding teams at the top of the round it could be the difference between the Commanders getting a nice trade package or the prospect they really want and missing out.

This is another result that is definitely within the realm of possibility. The Cardinals are coming off a 35-31 win over the Philadelphia Eagles, proving they aren't in tank mode.

The Cards are 3-4 since Kyler Murray returned to the lineup. They are probably a better team than their 4-12 record would indicate, giving them a realistic shot at upsetting the Seahawks.

Saints over Falcons

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Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara

If the Patriots don't beat the Jets, then there are going to be some games worth monitoring for the Commanders. The most important is the NFC South battle between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons.

That's because it can impact both team's strength of schedule. The Patriots played the Saints back in Week 5, losing 34-0. The Commanders played the Falcons back in Week 6, beating them 24-16.

A win for the Saints would improve the Patriots strength of schedule while bringing down the Commanders strength of schedule a notch. With both teams so close, every result counts.

Fortunately for Washington, the Saints have a lot of motivation for this one. They can win the division if they beat the Falcons and the Bucs lose to the Panthers. Alternatively, they can make the playoff field if they win and the Packers and Seahawks both lose this week.

Both paths are longshots but all it takes is some hope when it comes to Week 18. The Saints have won three of their last four games while the Falcons are 1-3 in that same stretch.

This is shaping up to be a positive for Washington.