2024 NFL Draft: CFP Prospects Trending Up or Down After College Football Semifinals
Sports are defined by the special moments they create. When extraordinary individuals are placed in high-profile situations that could easily overwhelm, they rise to the occasion to be remembered forever.
Performances when facing the best possible competition with the most on the line serve as watershed moments, particularly during the NFL draft evaluation process.
Scouts and front office personnel want to see best-on-best in the biggest games. These contests are often weighted heavily as part of the overall evaluation.
For example, the biggest knock on former Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud throughout the 2023 evaluation process stemmed from a supposed inability to create outside of structure. He silenced all of his critics with a sterling performance during a one-point loss to the eventual national champions, the Georgia Bulldogs, in the Peach Bowl.
The semifinals of this year's College Football Playoff were once again littered with future NFL talent. A handful of recognizable names either rose to the occasion or fell flat.
Who experienced their one shining moment or a game to forget?
Trending Up: QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington
1 of 6
Washington's Michael Penix Jr.'s draft status has been skyrocketing. Granted, he's been a Heisman Trophy-worthy performer throughout two seasons with the Huskies program. He didn't win the awards, but his production has been outstanding, and he's shown the skill set to make any throw.
But natural barriers stood in the way regarding his draft evaluation. A significant injury history, including a pair of ACL tears, and the fact he turns 24 before his first NFL training camp temper expectations.
"With Penix, to be fair, a lot of it has to do with the injury history," Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson said. "I've had a couple of guys tell me like, 'He won't even be on our board. That medical is going to be so bad that we're going to sub-board him and the only way we touch him is when there's no risk.'"
Furthermore, some questions about Penix's overall skill set arose when watching the quarterback closely.
"Penix's lack of touch, shaky pocket management and minimal ability to create plays will limit his ceiling in the pros," B/R scout Derrik Klassen wrote in the quarterback's initial scouting report.
However, evaluations remain ongoing, and Penix is coming off arguably the best performance of his career, with 430 passing yards against the Texas Longhorns in the Sugar Bowl. His touch on deep passes bordered on uncanny by completing six of eight passes for 238 yards and two touchdowns when targeting receivers 20 or more yards downfield, per Pro Football Focus.
Each of those initial concerns dissipated thanks to the performance.
Penix played behind the nation's best offensive line. He handled pressure well overall, yet his effectiveness previously waned in a muddied pocket. The subtle movement skills showed against Texas are exactly what he needs to properly navigate NFL pockets. Furthermore, Penix's overall mobility really came to light with three carries for 31 yards. He can extend plays, work outside of structure and create.
Granted, the medical evals still linger. Teams may overlook those depending on whether Penix stacks back-to-back elite performances during the College Football Playoff. A similar outing against a tougher Michigan defense could place the All-American in the first-round mix and possibly even the top-10 range, according to B/R's Jordan Schultz.
Trending Down: QB Quinn Ewers, Texas
2 of 6
Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers may have already been on the fence regarding a return for another collegiate season prior to the Sugar Bowl. It should be a relatively easy decision now.
On paper, Ewers' performance against the Huskies wasn't terrible. After all, he threw for 318 yards and had his team in a position to win all the way up to the game's final play. He completed 50 percent of his passes in the first half before finally getting on a roll in the fourth quarter.
However, the 20-year-old's decision-making with the game on the line left a lot to be desired. Ironically, his head coach previously stated that's where Ewers shines the most.
"The bigger the moment, the more calm and cool the guy is," Texas' Steve Sarkisian told reporters prior to the college football semifinal. "He plays at a really high level when his best is needed and that's a sign of a really good quarterback."
On first down while trailing by six with 15 seconds left, Ewers immediately checked the ball down for a loss of a yard while eating up five seconds of the clock. Two plays later, the quarterback gave his wide receiver no chance of making a play on the ball in the back of the end zone. On the final play, Ewers didn't make the correct coverage read and threw a lob to Adonai Mitchell that allowed the defender to make of play instead of tossing an easy stop-route or back-shoulder throw that probably would have been a game-winning score.
It's how you leave 'em, folks. Ewers didn't play at his best when it was needed. The opposite happened. He'll learn from those moments, but he'll be better served doing so another year in Austin rather than facing NFL defenses.
Trending Up: Edge Bralen Trice, Washington
3 of 6
If not for teammate Michael Penix Jr.'s ascension into the national spotlight, Bralen Trice would have garnered far more attention coming out of the Sugar Bowl after a dominant performance.
The defensive end was all over the field creating impact plays. From a straight stats perspective, Trice finished with a pair of sacks, eight quarterback pressures, four defensive stops and a forced fumble, according to Pro Football Focus.
While those numbers are impressive unto themselves, it is how Trice wins that makes his potential so exciting.
Going into the semifinal, Trice already posted back-to-back seasons with the nation's most quarterback pressures, per PFF. He's not necessarily a traditional edge prospect, though.
Top-end pass-rushers are expected to be Gumby-like in how they bend and corner around offensive tackles. At 6'4" and 274 pounds, Trice has a similar frame to that of Myles Garrett, although the latter can do things athletically that others his size simply can't, hence why he went No. 1 overall in the 2017 draft class.
Trice's pass-rush plan is predicated on a quick first step coupled with a strong inside move and relentless aggression. Those features were readily apparent against Texas. He has the strength to set the edge and catch blockers with a power move. He attacks with a plan as well. But his constant motor allows him to consistently chase down plays, even when he's not directly involved.
In the third quarter of Monday's contest, Texas allowed Trice to come unabated off the edge because the Longhorns called a simple inside zone. From five yards deep in the backfield, Trice retraced, ran down the ball-carrier and created a turnover with a tackle and strip.
Pure effort should never be overlooked when it comes to defensive linemen, especially one as talented as Trice.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Trending Down: Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama
4 of 6
Alabama's Dallas Turner made his future intentions known when he immediately declared for the 2024 NFL draft directly after the Crimson Tide's Rose Bowl loss to the Michigan Wolverines. He didn't provide his best outing prior to doing so after turning it on throughout the regular season.
Turner had something to prove this season. He had played in the shadow of Will Anderson Jr. and didn't previously produce at a high level. But his natural athleticism and tools portended an elite edge prospect.
The underclassman came on strong with career highs of 15.5 tackles for loss, 11 sacks and two forced fumbles on his way to claiming this season's SEC Defensive Player of the Year honors.
"Dallas has always been a good player for us," head coach Nick Saban told reporters in October. "He's always a hard worker, really conscientious guy, has sort of a high standard for how he wants to play and do things. This year I think he's trying to take on a little bit more of a leadership role in terms of how he can impact and affect other people on the team, which I think he's done a good job of, and he's played really well for us."
A favorable matchup awaited in Pasadena since the Wolverines offensive line isn't known for its ability to set and pass block. Turner made a couple plays but, generally, didn't create a significant impact.
During Blake Corum's game-winning touchdown scamper in overtime, the Wolverines ran right at Turner and they blocked him one-on-one with a tight end. The defender didn't disengage, the running back bounced the ball outside and scooted 17 yards for the score.
Clearly, Turner's gifts will place him squarely in the first-round conversation. He still has some work to do to become a week-by-week dominant force.
Trending Up: RB Blake Corum, Michigan
5 of 6
Michigan's Blake Corum really doesn't get the respect he deserve as a player or prospect.
The running back position has become so devalued that a great collegiate runner isn't often viewed as a premium talent. In Corum's case, his short stature makes things even more difficult.
Anytime he's on the field, his value is readily apparent.
Over the last two seasons, the two-time Big Ten Running Back of the Year has accumulated 2,574 rushing yards. During Monday's contest, Jim Harbaugh's staff put the ball in his hands to win the game. Corum responded.
In 21 touches, he had 118 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. His 43 rushing touchdowns are 12 more than any other player over the last two seasons, per Pro Football Focus. His 56 career rushing touchdowns are the most by any player in Michigan's vaunted history.
Meanwhile, he dealt with a knee injury that prematurely ended his 2022 Heisman Trophy hopes.
What makes Corum so special is his low center of gravity, patience and powerful lower body.
The running back is listed at 5'8" and 213 pounds, but he sports impressively strong thighs. As a result of his build, he's difficult to tackle. He rips through arm tackles and drives through defenders, which is why he's so effective at or near the goal line.
When those traits are coupled with outstanding foot quickness and agility in tight spaces, Corum is a nightmare for defenders to bring down.
Again, he'll be knocked throughout the draft process because of his build and positional value. But very few players around the country have been anywhere near as good as Corum since the '22 season began. The back showed it again during the Rose Bowl, with the possibility of starring in the national title game.
Trending Down: OT JC Latham, Alabama
6 of 6
There were points during Alabama's performance against the Michigan Wolverines where right tackle JC Latham looked downright dominant.
His combination of size and brute strength make him overwhelming at the point of attack. Once the 6'6", 360-pounder latches onto a defender, the rep is over, and it was in many cases against the Wolverines.
Two aspects of Monday's performance left question marks, though they could both prove to be minor.
The final play of overtime proved to be disastrous in multiple ways, including the result: Jalen Milroe came up woefully short on a 4th-and-3 draw play.
Latham's legs got rolled up during the play, but that became overlooked as the Wolverines rushed the field. The offensive tackle needed help getting off the field. According to Al.com's Michael Casagrande, Latham said he injured his ankle. Casagrande noted that the offensive tackle wasn't limping in the locker room.
Still, it's something to watch throughout the evaluation process.
The second point can be construed as nitpicky in an excellent game that went down to the wire. Latham took at inside set on on one pass play because of a stunt. He then struggled to get back outside to handle a late blitz that created pressure.
Typically, the first-team All-SEC performer moves well for an individual of his size. In this case, he was late and couldn't recover. His recognition and overall lateral movement will be tested against diverse NFL defensive schemes.
Despite these slight concerns, Latham remains a top-15 overall prospect, with tremendous upside to become a long-term starter at right tackle. His collegiate career just didn't end quite the way he probably hoped.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
