Ranking Fringe NFL Playoff Teams We Most Want to See Clinch a Berth in Week 18
The final weekend of the 2023 NFL regular season is loaded with drama and playoff stakes.
Within the AFC, five organizations—the Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars and Pittsburgh Steelers—are vying for three spots.
One of Houston, Indy or Jacksonville will be the AFC South champion, and the other two will be contending with Buffalo and Pittsburgh for one of two remaining wild-card berths.
Meanwhile, the NFC has six candidates for two spots.
One of the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints or Tampa Bay Buccaneers will take the NFC South. Additionally, both New Orleans and Tampa are in the running for the final wild-card bid alongside the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks.
The reality is, from an entertainment lens, several of those postseason hopefuls likely would not be interesting to watch in the playoffs.
The following order is subjective—blame me, nobody else—and factors in a team's quarterback situation, injuries, season performance, potential storylines and overall upside.
NFC Nos. 6-4. Minnesota, Atlanta and New Orleans
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6. Minnesota Vikings
Since the disappointing Achilles injury to quarterback Kirk Cousins, they've cycled from Jaren Hall to Joshua Dobbs to Nick Mullens, back to Hall and now back to Mullens for the regular-season finale against Detroit. The offense isn't exactly built for a postseason run.
Minnesota is a long shot to make the playoffs, needing a win plus losses from Green Bay and Seattle and a loss from either New Orleans or Tampa Bay in Week 18.
5. Atlanta Falcons
The QB situation isn't much better in Atlanta, which recently benched Desmond Ridder in favor of Taylor Heinicke. Seven NFL teams hold a 5-11 record or worse; Atlanta has lost to four members—the Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Washington Commanders and New York Giants—of that league-worst group. No, thank you.
But, hey, the Falcons can steal the NFC South with a victory at New Orleans and a Tampa loss to Carolina on Sunday.
4. New Orleans Saints
On the bright side, the Saints have played reasonably well on defense lately. The unit limited the Panthers and Giants to six points apiece and—after yielding 30 to the Los Angeles Rams on short rest—capitalized on four takeaways in a clutch 23-13 road victory at Tampa.
The offense is uninspiring, but at least Derek Carr doesn't turn the ball over often. To make the postseason, New Orleans must beat Atlanta. After that, either a Tampa Bay loss or a pair of setbacks for Green Bay and Seattle would send the Saints to the playoffs as the NFC South champion or a wild-card team, respectively.
AFC Nos. 5-4: Pittsburgh and Indianapolis
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5. Pittsburgh Steelers
What a strange situation. Mason Rudolph has truly elevated the offense lately, yet Kenny Pickett is still likely Pittsburgh's long-term QB1 (maybe?). Rudolph will start on Saturday against the Lamar Jackson-less rival Baltimore Ravens despite Pickett being cleared to play.
The forward-looking issue is that the Steelers can only finish as the AFC's No. 7 seed. It's hard to imagine a fickle Pittsburgh offense taking down both the AFC East winner and top-seeded Baltimore in the playoffs.
4. Indianapolis Colts
Speaking of inconsistent teams, Indianapolis has a negative point differential. The offense is 10th in scoring, and the defense is 27th. You just never quite know which version of the Colts will show up!
In the postseason, that trend is not a favorable one. With a victory over Houston in the finale, however, Indianapolis would put it to the test. The only question would be whether that's at home as the AFC South champion (if Jacksonville loses this weekend) or as a wild-card team.
NFC No. 3: Seattle Seahawks
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For the second straight year, Seattle is sliding the wrong direction late in the regular season. Last year, the Seahawks eked into the playoffs anyway. They might not be as lucky in 2023.
Seattle's only scenario, short of two involving ties, includes a win at Arizona and Green Bay loss in Week 18.
At the very least, though, the Seahawks can compete in the postseason. They toppled the Detroit Lions (37-31) and stuck with the Dallas Cowboys (41-35) in road games and edged the Philadelphia Eagles (20-17) at home. One of those franchises would be Seattle's first opponent.
Geno Smith and the offense are prone to quiet performances, and the defense is liable to give up 30-some points. No objective person is expecting a shocking run if the Seahawks make it.
Still, the roster and coaching—even while not elite—is good enough to make Seattle a competent playoff team.
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AFC No. 3: Jacksonville Jaguars
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The asterisk here is Jacksonville loses its appeal if quarterback Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) isn't available or is considerably limited.
But the peak version of the roster is intriguing.
Sure, we've hardly seen the Jaguars at their best lately. The team dropped four straight games following an 8-3 start and what seemed like an easy AFC South title. Last weekend, the Lawrence-less squad salvaged an otherwise-winless month with a 26-0 shutout of NFL-worst Carolina.
Top receiver Christian Kirk (core muscle) played a single snap in December, though. If he and Lawrence are ready for the postseason, the Jags would be significantly more threatening.
Jacksonville can clinch the AFC South with a win over the Tennessee Titans. Should the Jags lose, they'd be a wild-card team if Pittsburgh and the Denver Broncos lose and the Colts and Texans do not tie.
NFC No. 2: Green Bay Packers
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Not a great season for Green Bay. Might be in the playoffs anyway.
Ah, yes, ever-spoiled Packers fans—namely, one side of my family and also my wife's family—could see a pretty frustrating Green Bay squad manage to slide into a wild-card spot. (I'm not bitter. Please don't put in the newspaper that I got bitter.)
In seriousness, this is an exasperating team to watch. Green Bay lost to then-hapless Las Vegas Raiders and Denver teams in October, defeated the Lions and Kansas City Chiefs around Thanksgiving and dropped head-shaking games to the Giants and Bucs in December.
Nevertheless, all that stands between the Packers and the postseason is a win against the rival Chicago Bears.
That's a key word, by the way: Rival. Green Bay's current most likely opponents in the Wild Card Round are either the Cowboys or Lions. I'm in for a tradition-rich matchup.
Also, it'd be useful experience for quarterback Jordan Love. Leading the Pack to the playoffs in his first season as Aaron Rodgers' replacement would be a nice accomplishment.
AFC No. 2: Houston Texans
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C.J. Stroud, meanwhile, is the rookie quarterback with the best chance to make the playoffs.
Houston holds a win-and-in scenario at Indianapolis but would jump from a wild-card position to being the AFC South champion if Jacksonville loses to Tennessee.
Only 10 rookies in NFL history have ever won a postseason game. That potential for Stroud, along with the team's ascent under first-year coach DeMeco Ryans, is what makes the Texans so appealing.
In fairness, Houston is a low-upside team. The worst moments this squad has had—both on offense and defense—are certainly reflective of a roster in its initial stage of an exciting rebuild.
Stroud's opportunity to join a limited postseason club is too enticing to ignore, though.
NFC No. 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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The first clinching opportunity in the Baker Mayfield Redemption Story didn't go well. He tossed two interceptions in a Week 17 loss to New Orleans when the Bucs could've sealed the NFC South crown.
He's set for a favorable second chance, though.
Tampa Bay travels to Carolina, which is 2-14 and officially the NFL's worst team in 2023. Win there, and the Buccaneers secure a third straight division title and fourth consecutive playoff bid.
After opening the season with a 6.5-win total on DraftKings, the 8-8 Bucs have surpassed their modest expectations. Only the Los Angeles Rams (also 6.5, now 9-7) have done so at a higher rate in the NFC. Mayfield's second-half surge is the main reason for it.
Throw in a defense ceding the ninth-fewest points per game, and Tampa Bay would be a pleasant storyline in the postseason.
AFC No. 1: Buffalo Bills
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Among the 11 postseason hopefuls on this list, it's hardly a conversation about the roster with the most upside.
Put simply, Buffalo opened the 2023 campaign as a perceived Super Bowl threat. Though the connection between Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs has seemingly disappeared in the last two months, the Bills hold top-six rankings in both points scored and allowed per game.
The other element is that the previous 10 teams can finish no higher than the No. 4 seed in their respective conference.
As for Buffalo, its peak is much higher. If the Bills defeat the Miami Dolphins in Week 18, Buffalo will snatch the AFC East title and ascend to No. 2 in the AFC. Home games do not guarantee wins, but the Bills are 4-1 in their stadium during the last three postseasons.
With a loss, Buffalo needs either the Steelers or Jaguars to lose (or Colts and Texans to tie). Even as a sixth- or seventh-seeded wild-card entrant, though, the Bills are a very unfriendly matchup.
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