Breaking Down the 9 True Super Bowl LVIII Contenders on the Brink of the NFL Playoffs
We still have one week of regular-season games to go. Those games will have a sizable impact on which 14 teams make the playoffs and where they will slot in the postseason tournament.
However, before we even start the playoffs, there's something we know—while all 14 teams in the playoffs have a chance to make it to Las Vegas and Super Bowl LVIII, not every team really has a chance.
The champions of the AFC South and NFC South? They aren't winning three straight against quality opponents. The Los Angeles Rams have exceeded expectations this year, but they aren't going to exceed them all the way to Sin City.
No, there are five AFC teams and four NFC teams that have a realistic chance of making a deep postseason run that culminates in a trip to Allegiant Stadium. Each has strengths that could propel them all the way to a championship. Each also has weaknesses that could cut their postseason short.
Here's what they are.
Baltimore Ravens (13-3)
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After blowing out the Miami Dolphins in Week 17, the Baltimore Ravens will head into the postseason as the favorites to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVIII. Simply put, there just isn't much this team doesn't do well, and its last loss came all the way back in Week 10.
Why they'll win it all: The Ravens are both loaded and rolling. The team is fourth in total offense, first in rushing, second in scoring offense, fourth in total defense and first in scoring defense. There isn't anything the Ravens don't do at a high level—the offense has the best passing-game weapons of Lamar Jackson's career, and the defense is physical and stifling. Oh, and Jackson will all but certainly be named the NFL's Most Valuable Player at the NFL Honors in February.
Why they'll fall short: For all he's accomplished in his NFL career to date, Jackson hasn't had much success in the postseason—he's won just one playoff game in four tries, throwing more interceptions than touchdown passes with a passer rating less than 70. The last time the Ravens were the No. 1 seed and Jackson won MVP (2019), Baltimore was bounced in the Divisional Round.
San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
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The 49ers are the NFC West champions and the No. 1 seed in that conference. With a talent-laden offense and a stacked defense, San Francisco is one of the most balanced teams in the league.
Why they'll win it all: The 49ers have the NFL's leading rusher in Christian McCaffrey. An excellent trio of pass-catchers in wideouts Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle. One of the league's better offensive lines. And a defense anchored by edge-rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner that ranks seventh in total defense, third against the run and second in points per game allowed.
Why they'll fall short: For much of the 2023 season, quarterback Brock Purdy was an MVP candidate. But in the team's biggest test of the season, the Niners were blasted at home by the Baltimore Ravens in a game in which Purdy threw four interceptions. McCaffrey also heads into the postseason with a calf injury—if that lingers, San Francisco could have problems.
Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
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The Kansas Chiefs are a postseason staple. The team has won the last eight AFC West titles, hosted the last five AFC Championship Games and played in three of the of the past four Super Bowls. Oh, and they are the defending champions of the NFL.
Why they'll win it all: Um, because they're the Kansas City Chiefs. There isn't a more battle-tested team in the postseason tournament than the Chiefs. There isn't a better quarterback in the postseason tournament than Patrick Mahomes. And this is arguably the best defense Kansas City has had during the Mahomes era—the Chiefs are second in total defense and third in scoring defense.
Why they'll fall short: This year's iteration of the Chiefs isn't as dominant or potent offensively as in years past—Kansas City's six losses this season are the team's most since before Mahomes got to town, and the Chiefs are just a so-so (by their standards) ninth in total offense and 12th in scoring offense. This year the Chiefs will likely do something they never have under Mahomes (assuming they win in the Wild Card Round)—hit the road the following week.
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Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
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The Dallas Cowboys enter every season with Super Bowl aspirations. This year, with an undefeated record at home and a chance at securing the NFC's No. 2 seed with a win in Week 18, Dallas might just realize those aspirations.
Why they'll win it all: Like with most of the teams in this piece, the Dak Prescott-led offense in Dallas can rack up yards and points—the team ranks sixth in the former and third in the latter. The Cowboys also possess the NFL's eighth-ranked defense, with edge-rusher Micah Parsons becoming the second player in NFL history to begin his career with three 12-sack seasons and cornerback DaRon Bland setting a new NFL record for pick-sixes in a season with five.
Why they'll fall short: Dallas hasn't had much success in the postseason in the Prescott era—he's 2-4 in the playoffs, and Dallas hasn't advanced past the Divisional Round since 1995. The Cowboys are also a much different team away from AT&T Stadium—Dallas is just 3-5 on the road this year, including blowout losses to the Buffalo Bills and the San Francisco 49ers.
Buffalo Bills (10-6)
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It has been an up-and-down season for the Buffalo Bills. Not that long ago, it appeared the Bills might not make the postseason at all. But after winning four straight, the Bills can capture the AFC East and the AFC's No. 2 seed with a win over the Dolphins in Miami Sunday night.
Why they'll win it all: If the Bills do win Sunday, it will mark their third straight AFC East title, so Buffalo has postseason experience. The Bills also have one of the league's most dangerous signal-callers in Josh Allen. They are fifth in total offense, sixth in scoring offense, 10th in total defense and sixth in scoring defense. The Bills are a talented, balanced team capable of beating any squad in the league on any given Sunday—without Al Pacino.
Why they'll fall short: As was already mentioned, it's been an up-and-down year in Western New York. The Bills lost three of four before their bye week, and the team has been beaten by the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots and New York Jets this year. Also, while Allen has posted good stats in his eight career playoff games, he's won just four of them.
There's also a possibility the Bills won't make the playoffs at all—if the Bills lose at Miami and Pittsburgh beats Baltimore, Buffalo is out of luck and will watch the postseason on TV.
Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
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For a good chunk of the 2023 season, the Philadelphia Eagles looked like arguably the best team in the NFL. But Philly is backing into the postseason, losers of four of five heading into the regular season finale. Still, if the Eagles beat the New York Giants Sunday and Dallas loses in Washington, Philly wins the NFC East and the NFC's No. 2 seed.
Why they'll win it all: When they are at their best, the Eagles are capable of not only beating anyone but blowing them out. Philadelphia's offense is loaded, from quarterback Jalen Hurts to running back D'Andre Swift, wideouts A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, tight end Dallas Goedert and a stout offensive line. This is a team that can light up the scoreboard.
Why they'll fall short: After ranking second in the league last year in defense and piling up a jaw-dropping 70 sacks, the Philadelphia defense has regressed in 2023. The pass rush has been good, but not great. The pass defense has just been bad, allowing the fifth-most yards per game through the air. The offense has become inconsistent during the team's recent skid. And when last we saw the Eagles, they were being stunned at home by a 12-loss Arizona Cardinals team.
Cleveland Browns (11-5)
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There isn't a more improbable Super Bowl contender this season than the Cleveland Browns. Despite being ravaged by injuries, including the loss of quarterback Deshaun Watson and running back Nick Chubb, the Browns have posted 11 wins this season—tied for the team's most since Cleveland rejoined the NFL in 1999.
Why they'll win it all: Defense, defense, defense. The Browns lead the league in yards allowed per game and passing yards per game, rank 11th in scoring defense, have logged the third-most takeaways in the league and have a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in edge-rusher Myles Garrett. The offense isn't great, but veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has been a revelation for the Browns since joining the team midseason. Cleveland will enter the playoffs hot (7-2 over its last nine games), and the Browns have already notched wins over both San Francisco and Baltimore—the latter on the road.
Why they'll fall short: Although the Browns have averaged just under 120 yards per game on the ground, the run game has been inconsistent since Chubb went down. Flacco is racking up passing yards, but he's also piling up interceptions—no team in the league has more giveaways than Cleveland's 35. Postseason success has been rare in Cleveland, too—the last time the Browns made it past the Divisional Round was 1989.
Detroit Lions (11-5)
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You read that right—the Detroit Lions are Super Bowl contenders. For the first time since 2014, the Lions have won 11 games. For the first time ever, the Lions are champions of the NFC North—the last time Detroit won the division (1993) was so long ago it was still called the NFC Central.
Why they'll win it all: The Lions are tomato cans no more. The team has a quarterback in Jared Goff who has played in a Super Bowl. The Lions run game keyed by David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs ranks fourth in the league in rushing yards. The Detroit offensive line ranks among the top five in the NFL. Amon-Ra St. Brown is as good a wide receiver as there is in the league. And rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has been outstanding in 2023.
Why they'll fall short: You'll notice that the Lions defense hasn't been mentioned. Detroit's defense isn't without talent (Aidan Hutchinson is blossoming into an excellent edge-rusher), but the Lions are just 15th in the league in total defense and 23rd in scoring defense. The pass defense has been especially problematic—25th in the league in yards per game allowed through the air.
Miami Dolphins (11-5)
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You wouldn't know it from last week's pasting at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens, but it's been a successful season in Miami—with a win Sunday against the rival Bills, the Dolphins will win the AFC East, capture the AFC's No. 2 seed and post their first 12-win season since 1990.
Why they'll win it all: When the Dolphins are firing on all cylinders offensively, they are nearly unstoppable. Tua Tagovailoa leads the league with 4,451 passing yards. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill leads the NFL with 1,717 receiving yards. Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane spearhead the league's fifth-best ground game. No team in the NFL has amassed more yards and points per game in 2023 than the Dolphins.
Why they'll fall short: The Dolphins haven't won a postseason game since 2000, and there's been little to indicate that will change this season. Miami has built its record beating up on bad teams. The Dolphins have played five teams with winning records in 2023. Their only victory was a two-point win over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16. Two of the losses were by at least 28 points—including a 48-20 loss to the Buffalo team Miami faces in Week 18.
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