Stefon Diggs and Players Who Will Make or Break NFL Teams' Potential Super Bowl Run
If the Buffalo Bills are to win the Super Bowl, they'll need Stefon Diggs to play a lot better than he is right now.
Head coach Sean McDermott recently said as much as the Bills prepare to clinch a playoff spot in their Week 18 matchup against the Miami Dolphins.
"He's a big factor for us," he told reporters. "We're going to need him down the stretch here."
The Bills are the perfect example of a Super Bowl contender that has some things to figure out quickly. Josh Allen's play has been up-and-down this season, and the team has spent some weeks looking like it won't even make the playoffs while looking like a potential champion at other times.
Diggs has been emblematic of that erratic play. He started the season strong, but his production has taken a nosedive over the back half of the season. From Weeks 10-17, he's averaged just 4.3 catches per game with 37.4 yards.
The receiver is just one of several players who are going to have to elevate their game if their team is going to realize its Super Bowl dreams.
Here's a look at a few more from around the field of contenders.
Baltimore Ravens CB Ronald Darby
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If there's one thing that could derail the Baltimore Ravens' quest to win the AFC, it's the health of their secondary.
The cornerback and safety rooms look like a triage unit right now. The damage has been particularly difficult to overcome at cornerback. Marlon Humphrey, Arthur Maulet, Brandon Stephens and Daryl Worley are all on the injury report this week.
Fortunately, the Ravens have already clinched the No. 1 seed so they have the next two weeks to get healthy.
Even so, the one player who has managed to remain healthy throughout the season has been Ronald Darby. The veteran corner has been an underrated signee for the Ravens this year. Unlike most of the players on this list, he's played well throughout the campaign.
The 30-year-old is credited with only allowing 19 receptions on 43 targets this season, giving up just 172 yards and one touchdown for a passer rating of 63.3. With Stephens and Humphrey both dealing with injuries, there's a good chance he is going to be called upon to start at some point in the postseason.
Darby's ability to jump into the lineup and still give the Ravens a cover corner who can hold his own against the talented receivers Baltimore will face in the playoffs.
Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs
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We've already touched on Diggs' struggles over the second half of the season. Part of the diminished production has come because of his play, but some of it is also because he's seen a diminished role.
Since the bye week in Week 13, the three-time Pro Bowler has seen a major reduction in his snaps. Early in the season, he was playing at least 85 percent of the snaps with a few exceptions. Since the break, he hasn't broken 80 percent and only saw 46 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 15.
Gabe Davis has played more in every game, and Khalil Shakir has seen more action in three out of the four.
Besides that, McDermott had an eyebrow-raising comment on Diggs' reduced number of targets in that time:
"The ball finds the open players," he said. "So Stef continues to work. He's going to be fine, but we have things we need to work on overall as a team, and that's one of them because you can't let your No. 1 receiver go like he has, and in particular the last few games. We've got, obviously, some work to do."
Regardless, the Maryland product will need to get things going in the right direction to maximize the Bills' potential. In 2022, he was 23rd in the league in target separation at 2.04 yards and 11th in juke rate among all receivers. This season, he's still 10th in juke rate, but he's 46th in separation at just 1.63.
Diggs has to recapture his route-running prowess if the Bills' passing attack is going to be playoff-ready.
Cleveland Browns OT Geron Christian and OT James Hudson III
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We are going with two players here because they will be equally important to the Cleveland Browns' chances.
The Browns are among the most unlikely Super Bowl contenders with a legitimate shot at getting to the big game.
Teams that lose their starting quarterback, star running back, both starting tackles and start four quarterbacks in a season aren't supposed to even make the postseason.
Yet, here are the Browns with the fifth seed all sewn up in the AFC.
They have found an answer for nearly every major injury this season. Joe Flacco has turned back the clock at 38 years old. Jerome Ford has proved to be a capable featured back, and the defensive depth has helped the unit weather some more minor injuries.
The tackles are a concern, though. Not only did the Browns lose Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin for the season, but Dawand Jones is also out. The rookie was doing a great job of taking over at right tackle, but now they are left with Geron Christian on the left and James Hudson III on the right.
They rank 81st and 80th among the 84 qualifying tackles PFF has graded this season. They have obviously done enough for the Browns to continue winning, but they've had some ugly moments.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Hudson had seven blown blocks in pass protection in Week 16 against the Houston Texans, while Christian had six total in the same game.
They can't have that kind of day against the best teams in the AFC.
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Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard
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Anyone who drafted Tony Pollard in fantasy football can attest that he's fallen short of expectations. For years, we've seen him look like a feature back while sharing responsibilities with Ezekiel Elliott.
Now that Elliott is gone, the 26-year-old hasn't looked capable of carrying that load.
Last year, Pollard was one of the most explosive backs in the league. He averaged 5.9 yards per touch, was eighth in the league in yards created per touch and did it behind an offensive line that gave him the 22nd-best run block rating, per Player Profiler.
The run blocking has slipped a bit in 2023. His run block rating is 37th in the league.
However, Pollard's independent stats are still concerning. He's 30th in yards created per touch and 47th in juke rate, meaning he's just not making defenders miss the same way he did last season.
The difference is that the Cowboys don't have another back like Elliott to pick up the slack. Rico Dowdle has been fine, but he's averaging just 3.9 yards per carry.
Dallas' lack of a running game could be what ultimately ends its playoff run. It's dropped two out of its last three games and was a two-point conversion away from losing to the Lions.
In those three games, Pollard has four catches for 10 yards and 38 rushes for 139 yards.
There's going to be a lot of talk about Dak Prescott and the defense in the coming weeks. However, Pollard getting some of his juice back and becoming a factor in the offense is going to determine how far the Cowboys go.
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce
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The Kansas City Chiefs are going into the playoffs with a problem they haven't really had in the Patrick Mahomes era: The offense has been inconsistent all season.
It's been well-documented all year that the Chiefs' wide receivers have struggled. Rashee Rice has come on over the second half of the season to become the team's No. 1 receiver, but they are still leading the league in drops (40) and have the NFL's lowest yards before catch average.
There are a number of receivers who need to step up their game. Kadarius Toney shows flashes of being a game-changer, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has too many drops for a veteran, and Skyy Moore has not lived up to his billing as a former second-round pick.
However, Travis Kelce is really the leader of the pass-catchers, and he's seen a steady decline in production toward the end of the season.
In Games 1-8 this season, the 34-year-old had 54 receptions for 583 yards and four touchdowns. Over the last eight games, he has hauled in 39 passes, 401 yards and just one touchdown.
Kelce has made his own contributions to the Chiefs' drop problem recently. He has three in his last three games and hasn't topped 44 yards receiving in any of those contests.
Perhaps the Chiefs are simply working on getting others involved in the offense, but it's costing them. He only had five catches for 44 yards with two drops in a loss to the Raiders.
If Kansas City is going to take advantage of the best defense it's had in the Mahomes era, then Kelce has to get back to being a dominant tight end.
Miami Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle
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Several injury situations will have an impact on the playoffs, but Jaylen Waddle's status could be the thing that determines whether the Miami Dolphins will be a factor or not.
If you need an example of how great the 2021 first-rounder's influence can be for the Dolphins offense, look no further than recent games against the Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens.
The 22-20 win over the Cowboys was, arguably, the Dolphins' best game of the season. While Waddle was ultimately injured in the game, he made a big impact. He only had one reception for 50 yards, but his presence does more than the box score indicates. He has the second-highest route win rate in the league, per Player Profiler.
Tyreek Hill had a much better stat line in that game, catching nine of his 14 targets for 99 yards. Waddle's 4.37 speed means that the Dolphins can put two receivers with blazing speed on the field at the same time, which is a headache for secondaries to account for.
The Alabama product left that game with a high ankle sprain, which sidelined him against the Baltimore Ravens. His absence was felt.
Hill was limited to six catches for 76 yards on 12 targets, and the Dolphins had just 237 yards of passing. The Ravens won 56-19 and Miami lost any chance at the No. 1 seed.
Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reported that Waddle will be ready for the playoffs, but his status for a pivotal Week 18 matchup against the Bills is still up in the air.
Philadelphia Eagles DT Jalen Carter
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The defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles are in trouble.
They blew a pretty straightforward path to the NFC East title when they lost a 35-31 shootout to former defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. The offense has its fair share of problems, but the defense certainly carries a piece of the blame.
They've tried to address coaching issues. Sean Desai was reportedly relieved of defensive play-calling duties in favor of Matt Patricia.
Perhaps more than the coaching, they've missed the interior pass rush of Javon Hargrave. The Eagles' pass rush was historic last season with 70 sacks, and Hargrave was a key element. He posted 11 sacks and forced teams to double him, giving one-on-one situations to Josh Sweat, Haason Reddick and other edge-defenders.
The Eagles drafted Jalen Carter with the ninth overall pick after Hargrave left for the San Francisco 49ers last offseason. In the early part of the season, the rookie was a worthy replacement.
Carter posted at least one pressure in seven of his first nine games. He had four sacks with 19 combined tackles. In the last six games, he's only posted two pressures. Granted, both of them were sacks, but it's clear that he's not impacting the game as he was early on.
Patricia has acknowledged that some rookies struggle to adapt to the longer NFL season. As the season has worn on, Carter has seen a notable downturn in snap counts.
He needs to get back on the field and impacting games if the Eagles defense is going to hold up in the postseason.
San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy
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The quarterback can obviously make or break anyone's Super Bowl chances, but that's especially true in Brock Purdy's case.
The 24-year-old seems to be the only thing that can stop the Niners this season. The split stats between the wins and losses tell the story.
In the Niners' 12 wins this season, Purdy has looked like a legitimate MVP candidate. He has completed 72.5 percent of his passes, averaged 10.1 yards per attempt and thrown 28 touchdowns to two interceptions.
In five losses, though, he has looked completely overwhelmed. He has completed just 60.8 percent of his passes with three touchdowns to nine interceptions and just 8.5 yards per attempt.
The offense has the weapons to survive if any of them are having an off game. Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle can pick up the slack for one another or lift the offense if Christian McCaffrey is not at his best.
The defense has difference-makers at each level who are well-adapted to shut down the different offenses they will see.
But if Purdy has a game like he did in a Christmas loss to the Baltimore Ravens in which he threw four interceptions while completing just 18 of his 32 attempts, the Niners are going to be in trouble.
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