NFL Week 18 Survivor Pool Tips: Best Picks and Strategies to Stay Alive
We've officially reached the final week of the 2023-24 NFL season. Survivor pool participants who are still alive probably don't have a lot of company.
Participants who haven't won their league by now are facing a very difficult week. The league's top teams are likely off the table by now, and some of them aren't even guaranteed to play their starters in Week 18 anyway.
The Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs are all locked into playoff slots and have no reason to risk key injuries in their season finales.
Yet, the survivor march goes on, and below, you'll find some updated advice for Week 18, using the latest odds as a guideline.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
General Survivor Tips for Week 18
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The biggest piece of advice we can offer in Week 18 is to avoid those teams that have nothing to play for.
The 49ers, for example, have already announced that running back Christian McCaffrey will sit out the week with a calf injury. San Francisco is still a three-point favorite over the Los Angeles Rams, but other starters could also sit.
The Ravens and Browns are 3.5- and six-point underdogs, respectively, while the Chiefs are three-point underdogs against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Picking the opposition to these playoff-locked teams is also risky. All Week 18 games are divisional contests, and teams like San Francisco and Baltimore could be more than happy to impact the playoff standing of a rival.
We'd also recommend avoiding the two prime-time contests of Week 18. The visiting Houston Texans are only 1.5-point favorites against the Indianapolis Colts, and it's going to be a hotly-contested game. The winner will be in the postseason, and this is one that could truly go either way.
The same can be said for Sunday night's matchup between the Buffalo Bills (-3) and Miami Dolphins. The winner will claim the AFC East, while a Bills loss could potentially leave Buffalo out of the postseason entirely.
Miami will be at home, but it is dealing with enough key injuries to rightfully make Buffalo the favorite. Neither team can be truly trusted to get the win.
Trust the Cowboys Against the Commanders
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If they're still available, the Dallas Cowboys are the safest survivor pick of Week 18. Dallas is a 13-point favorite over the Washington Commanders, and that line might be too generous.
The Cowboys have an explosive aerial attack helmed by Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, Washington, meanwhile, has one of the least reliable pass defenses in the entire NFL. The Commanders rank 31st in net yards per pass attempt allowed, 31st in passing yards allowed, 32nd in passing touchdowns allowed and 32nd in points allowed.
While the Cowboys have been much better in Arlington than on the road, they should have little trouble racking up points against Washington. This isn't a potential trap game for Dallas either.
If the Cowboys win, they'll also win the NFC East and the conference's No. 2 seed. Given the importance of playing at home, Dallas needs to ensure they claim both. The Cowboys aren't going to play with one eye on the postseason, as tempting as that might be.
The Cowboys can be trusted this week, while their division rivals, the Philadelphia Eagles, cannot.
The Eagles are 5.5-point favorites against the New York Giants and can still win the division with a Dallas loss. However, Philly's defense has appeared broken over the last month, and the Eagles are no locks to beat anyone right now.
Consider Buccaneers, Lions for Plan B
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The Detroit Lions are only three-point favorites at home against the Minnesota Vikings. However, Detroit should be the top option for survivor participants without Dallas at their disposal.
The Lions still have a slim chance of securing the No. 2 seed, and they plan to play their starters against the Vikings.
"Yeah, that's the plan right now, is play our guys," head coach Dan Campbell said, per Kyle Meinke of MLive.
The line might indicate that oddsmakers don't quite trust Campbell's reported plan, but it's hard to imagine Detroit simply backing into the postseason. Detroit should outlast a Vikings team with serious quarterback issues.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are another serviceable play in Week 18, as they face the offensively-challenged Carolina Panthers. Carolina has struggled to put a functional offense around rookie quarterback Bryce Young all year, and the Panthers are five-point underdogs at home this week.
Tampa is no lock to win, though. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs can clinch the NFC South with a win, but they faced the same proposition in Week 17 and fell flat. Carolina also has a sound pass defense that could present problems for Mayfield and Co.
However, Carolina has struggled so consistently in 2023 that picking against the Panthers one last time feels appropriate.
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