Early Solutions for Justin Fields, 2024 NFL Offseason's Biggest Questions
I know, we're not quite there yet. But for 18 of the NFL's 32 teams, the 2024 offseason will hit abruptly on Monday. Soon after, they'll fall like dominos and just like that we'll be staring down the barrel of free agency.
Some key offseason questions will linger like a bad decision related to Aaron Rodgers, while others will be settled swiftly by teams and/or players.
Regardless, here are eight scenarios and the early solutions that could very well be on the table.
On the Bears, Justin Fields and the No. 1 Overall Pick
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One way or another, this is likely to dominate the early-offseason (if not the entire offseason) NFL news cycle. That's because the Chicago Bears once again hold the No. 1 pick in the draft, once again have to make a decision related to young up-and-down quarterback Justin Fields, and once again have to decide whether to keep player and/or pick.
My suggestion? Trade down again, surround Fields with even more ammo, and pray.
We all know that even the top of the first round is a crapshoot, but we've also seen teams, time and again, mortgaging everything to move up for a quarterback with whom they've fallen in love. The Carolina Panthers were last year's victim, and Chicago benefited. This year, somebody will likely do the same thing for Caleb Williams (who very well could become a star but is hardly more guaranteed of that than Fields), and the Bears should take full advantage.
Hold onto your still-cheap 24-year-old quarterback, regardless of whether you exercise his fifth-year option for 2025 (if you feel incentivization could help). Then trade down, collect some picks and load up for a year or two of football YOLO with one of the most exciting and uniquely talented players in the sport.
If it doesn't work? Back to the drawing board but with plenty of talent elsewhere and the bank ain't broken. Plus, there's a chance Williams (or whoever goes off the board in the top spot) doesn't pan out either, and in that case the team with him is much worse off.
I get that Fields hasn't made the kind of passing progress many had hoped for in his third season, but his turnover rate as dropped over the course of the year and he's shown some more signs of progress overall during a five-game stretch in which the Bears have gone 4-1. He's earned a shot, especially because we damn well know the grass might not be greener on the other side of this debate.
The Quarterback Grass Isn't Likely Greener in Denver Either
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Most signs point to the Russell Wilson era ending in Denver after just two seasons, which likely means this saga drags on as far into the offseason as June (the Broncos have significant financial incentive to make him a post-June 1 cut).
But while benching Wilson for the final two weeks of the regular season presented Denver with an easier path to the post-Wilson era, that doesn't mean the team has made up its mind. And even if it has, it oughta reconsider.
Because they've still managed to win eight games, the Broncos are not going to have a primo draft pick. And because Wilson will still cost the team at least $35.4 million in 2024, there really isn't that much of a financial reason to part ways.
Wilson hasn't been himself the last couple of years, but with two different head coaches and offensive systems. He's incredibly accomplished and still extremely talented, and at the age of 35 it's still very easy to envision him experiencing significant success elsewhere—if not right where he is.
I'm still taking him any day over Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins or Kyler Murray, all of whom might become available soon but would also be relatively expensive via trade or the open market.
Denver should iron things out with Wilson and see how things play out for both him and Sean Payton with a full year under their shared belt.
Barring a Coup of a Deal, Arizona Must Stick with Kyler, Target Marvin Harrison Jr.
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Picking up on a trend here? It also would be incredibly financially punitive for the Arizona Cardinals to move on from Kyler Murray, who is set to carry a dead-cap charge of $81.5 million into 2024, according to Spotrac.
Yeah yeah yeah sunk costs blah blah blah. People have to again remember that alternatives also cost money, and/or come with risk. And the Cardinals are now out of contention for the top pick and unlikely to land the No. 2 pick, so they could find themselves needing to surrender even more capital in order to be positioned to draft Williams or even North Carolina's Drake Maye.
The solution? Unless somebody is willing to inherit the lion's share of Murray's contract, give the neo-talented 26-year-old another shot after he played relatively well despite coming off a major knee injury this past season. Then, do everything you can to support him by landing potential generational talent Marvin Harrison Jr. near the top of the draft.
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The Vikes Oughta Give One More Year to Kirk Cousins, If That's Something He'd Go For
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The trend continues!
This is somewhat of a 180-degree turn for yours truly, who has rarely supported the Minnesota Vikings' continued, um, support of veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. In past offseasons it has simply felt as though we'd seen Cousins at his peak, and that he just didn't have the talent or consistency to take Minnesota on a deep playoff run.
But here we are again. The Vikings are unlikely to hold a top-10 draft pick, there aren't a lot of enticing alternatives out there, and before a torn Achilles ended his season prematurely in October, he was playing some of the best football of his 12-year NFL career.
The 35-year-old won't likely come at too steep a price considering his age and health situation, and/or at the very least, he won't require a long-term commitment. If he does because somebody else will give that to him, so be it. Move on and make it a rebuild year as you load up around Justin Jefferson and a solid offensive core for 2025.
But considering the potential proliferation of quarterbacks set to join the 2024 carousel, the Vikings might be able to give Cousins one more crack at it without crippling themselves financially. If so, they should.
The Jaguars Should Give Trevor Lawrence an Ultimatum
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After Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow landed historically massive new contracts last offseason, speculation turned to which young quarterbacks would become gazillionaires next.
Trevor Lawrence has naturally been a central figure in that speculation, as the Jacksonville Jaguars' 2021 No. 1 overall pick has elite tools and has shown glimpses of potential greatness.
But Lawrence hasn't gotten it done. He's only just turned 24 and injuries have been a factor this season, but even when healthy the former Clemson star hasn't done enough to ensure he won't become another high-first-round bust.
Considering that he actually took a step backward on paper in a critical third season, the Jaguars should apply major pressure and take a bit of a risk by declining Lawrence's fifth-year option for 2025.
Calm down, peeps. That doesn't mean the team is at significant risk of losing Lawrence if he does put it all together in '24. It just means they could have to start utilizing the franchise tag one year earlier than they might have with that option exercised. Not ideal, but one could argue that committing approximately $30 million to him for 2025 right now is much riskier than cutting off his rookie contract at the end of 2024.
It's time for Jacksonville to push Lawrence to either become what he has the potential to be, or get set to move on.
The Dolphins Need to Pay Tua Now
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On the other end of the spectrum, the other top-10 quarterback belonging to a 2020 draft class that saw Burrow and Herbert go off the board in the top six has earned Burrow/Herbert money.
Even if the Miami Dolphins can't yet make a run in the AFC, there's enough evidence now that Tua Tagovailoa is the real deal.
One year after emerging as an MVP candidate in a spectacular yet injury-marred 2022 campaign, the 25-year-old remained healthy while putting up equally fantastic numbers for a Super Bowl-contending Miami team in 2023.
On a whole, the performance has served as proof that 2022 wasn't a fluke while putting at least most health-related concerns to bed for now.
Per Spotrac, Tagovailoa is scheduled to count $23.2 million against Miami's cap in his 2024 option year. The reality is, with a lucrative long-term deal, the Dolphins could actually bring that '24 hit down and create flexibility. And if Tua continues to rise, that contract will likely be seen as a discount about as quickly as long-term deals belonging to Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Dak Prescott have accomplished that feat for their respective teams.
Get it done, Miami, and then focus on putting the cherry on top for a Super Bowl run in 2024.
The Chargers Need to Make a Harbaugh-sized Splash
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Meanwhile, in his first season since signing his historic five-year, $262.5 million contract with the Los Angeles Chargers, Herbert saw his numbers stagnate for a Bolts team that went just 5-8 in his 13 starts and has moved on from head coach Brandon Staley.
It's time for the Chargers to get serious about taking Herbert from good to great, because they're now tied for him for many years to come and nobody wants to become a perennial quasi-contender with wasted quarterback talent.
Enter Jim Harbaugh.
The Michigan head coach, who famously brought Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith to levels they'd never hit before while coaching the San Francisco 49ers, has reportedly hired an agent with deep NFL ties. And the Chargers' vacancy makes a lot of sense:
- 25-year-old quarterback with the ability to dominate
- Team with the talent to compete soon if not now
- Franchise located in California
It's time for the Chargers to go big or go home. Make Harbaugh an offer he can't refuse.
Bill Belichick Should Say Goodbye
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If indeed his New England Patriots tenure comes to an end in the coming days or weeks, Bill Belichick will likely attract interest from teams like the Chargers, Carolina Panthers, and possibly others like the Las Vegas Raiders or Washington Commanders.
That might be tempting, but Belichick has clearly lost a step and would be better off preserving his reputation and walking away now.
Don Shula spent 26 years in Miami and rode into the sunset. George Halas did the same after 40 years in Chicago. Those are the only two coaches with more career wins than Belichick. And of course, the legendary Tom Landry spent his entire 29-year coaching career in Dallas.
Belichick had success elsewhere, but the script wouldn't seem right with a closing setting outside of New England. The best often know when to quit, and Belichick is there. He might even regret sticking around this long considering the current state of the Pats, but he'd be the first to admit that doesn't justify digging a deeper hole.
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