2024 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68
With just 75 days remaining until Selection Sunday for the 2024 men's college basketball NCAA tournament, our projected No. 1 seeds are Purdue, Houston, Kansas and Connecticut.
And now that we're finally into the new year, it's time to start including much more resume data in our bracketology discussion.
You'll see a lot of NET, RES and QUAL in the forthcoming analysis. NET is the NCAA Evaluation Tool, the backbone of the Quads data and the primary sorting metric the selection committee uses to select and seed the field. RES is the average ranking of the two resume metrics (KPI and SOR) and is more or less a measure of who you beat, regardless of scoring margin. QUAL is the average ranking of the two predictive metrics (BPI and KenPom) and is rooted in scoring margin and adjusted efficiencies. All three play a key role in determining the projected field.
Also of note, all projected automatic bids are based on predictive metrics. Most bracketologists use conference records to make those selections, but especially at this point in the year when no team has played more than two league games, it doesn't make much sense to use that data point when we have several better ones.
With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from two weeks ago.
The Projected Bracket
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EAST REGION (Boston)
Brooklyn, NY
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 Iona
No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 Ohio State
Pittsburgh, PA
No. 4 Kentucky vs. No. 13 Fort Wayne
No. 5 Duke vs. No. 12 TCU/Florida
Salt Lake City, UT
No. 3 BYU vs. No. 14 Weber State
No. 6 San Diego State vs. No. 11 Nebraska
Charlotte, NC
No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 15 Morehead State
No. 7 Auburn vs. No. 10 Utah State
MIDWEST REGION (Detroit)
Indianapolis, IN
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Southern/Merrimack
No. 8 Colorado vs. No. 9 Virginia
Spokane, WA
No. 4 Oklahoma vs. No. 13 UC Irvine
No. 5 Utah vs. No. 12 Northwestern
Pittsburgh, PA
No. 3 Memphis vs. No. 14 Akron
No. 6 Villanova vs. No. 11 South Carolina
Charlotte, NC
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 High Point
No. 7 James Madison vs. No. 10 Providence
SOUTH REGION (Dallas)
Memphis, TN
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Colgate
No. 8 New Mexico vs. No. 9 Princeton
Brooklyn, NY
No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 13 Liberty
No. 5 Baylor vs. No. 12 Texas/Syracuse
Omaha, NE
No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 14 Samford
No. 6 Dayton vs. No. 11 Miami
Indianapolis, IN
No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 15 Vermont
No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Iowa State
WEST REGION (Los Angeles)
Omaha, NE
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Denver/Norfolk State
No. 8 Grand Canyon vs. No. 9 Nevada
Spokane, WA
No. 4 Colorado State vs. No. 13 McNeese State
No. 5 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 12 Indiana State
Memphis, TN
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Hofstra
No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 11 Alabama
Salt Lake City, UT
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Lipscomb
No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Gonzaga
10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest Teams'
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Fifth-to-Last In: Northwestern Wildcats (10-2, NET: 72, RES: 42.0, QUAL: 54.5)—Big opportunity Tuesday at Illinois to cement spot in field.
Fourth-to-Last In: TCU Horned Frogs (11-2, NET: 45, RES: 63.5, QUAL: 32.5)—Nevada loss in D.H.C. leaves TCU devoid of quality win.
Third-to-Last In: Texas Longhorns (11-2, NET: 48, RES: 56.0, QUAL: 28.0)—Remove the 10 Q4 games and Texas is 1-2 overall.
Second-to-Last In: Syracuse Orange (9-3, NET: 78, RES: 28.5, QUAL: 90.0)—Tuesday night at Duke looms large for a solid early resume.
Last Team In: Florida Gators (10-3, NET: 47, RES: 47.5, QUAL: 30.5)—Classic bubble resume with no great wins or terrible losses.
****Cut Line****
First Team Out: Cincinnati Bearcats (11-2, NET: 37, RES: 48.5, QUAL: 32.5)—Solid metrics, but 0-2 vs. Q1/Q2 is hard to overlook.
Second Team Out: Michigan State Spartans (8-5, NET: 29, RES: 63.5, QUAL: 21.5)—Four consecutive wins by 10-plus have MSU in the mix.
Third Team Out: Drake Bulldogs (10-2, NET: 73, RES: 53.5, QUAL: 76.5)—Ending nonconference play with loss at UAB knocked Drake out.
Fourth Team Out: Kansas State Wildcats (9-3, NET: 88, RES: 45.0, QUAL: 61.5)—The overtime victories over Providence and Villanova keep looking better.
Fifth Team Out: St. John's Red Storm (9-4, NET: 50, RES: 61.0, QUAL: 43.5)—Came up short at UConn, but Johnnies could go dancing.
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
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1. Purdue Boilermakers (12-1 NET: 3, RES: 1.5, QUAL: 2.0)
2. Houston Cougars (13-0 NET: 1, RES: 3.0, QUAL: 1.0)
3. Kansas Jayhawks (12-1, NET: 11, RES: 4.5, QUAL: 14.5)
4. Connecticut Huskies (11-2, NET: 9, RES: 11.5, QUAL: 7.5)
5. Marquette Golden Eagles (11-3, NET: 10, RES: 7.0, QUAL: 12.0)
6. Arizona Wildcats (10-3, NET: 4, RES: 11.5, QUAL: 3.5)
7. Tennessee Volunteers (9-3, NET: 6, RES: 13.5, QUAL: 9.0)
8. Clemson Tigers (11-1, NET: 8, RES: 2.0, QUAL: 19.5)
Losing to Purdue on Dec. 16 dropped Arizona from the No. 1 overall seed. Losing in overtime to Florida Atlantic the following weekend caused the Wildcats to slip behind Houston to No. 3 overall. But getting blown out Sunday at Stanford was a major misstep and a temporary final straw in their No. 1 seed conversation.
The Wildcats still have a very strong resume featuring wins over Duke, Wisconsin, Alabama and Michigan State. But the three losses leave them nowhere close to the upper echelon of Purdue, Houston and Kansas and instead leaves them jostling with Marquette and Tennessee on the list of teams with great metrics and a 4-3 record against the top two Quads.
Following Marquette's come-from-behind victory over Creighton on Saturday, we're giving the edge to the Golden Eagles, who have yet to suffer anything close to a bad loss. But if the Wildcats can sweep games against Colorado and Utah this week, that would probably nudge them back ahead of Marquette.
Beyond the "where to slot Arizona?" debate, though, it's a relatively clear-cut hierarchy up top at this point.
You could certainly make the case for Clemson as the No. 4 overall seed from a Quads and metrics perspective, but the Tigers do not yet have a win over a team currently projected for better than a No. 10 seed. Beat Miami and North Carolina this week, however, and it's a much different story. Clemson would be no worse than No. 4 overall in our next projection if it wins both of those games.
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ACC Summary
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6 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 8. Clemson, 15. North Carolina, 18. Duke, 36. Virginia, 44. Miami, 49. Syracuse
Also Considered: Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State
Biggest Change: Virginia plummets to the bubble
Between its snail-like tempo and simply being a contender in most seasons, Virginia had not been blown out often over the past decade-plus. In fact, from 2012-13 through 2022-23 (11 years), the Cavaliers had suffered a combined total of five losses by 22 or more points.
But all three of their losses this season have been by at least that large of a margin, including two such setbacks in the past two weeks to Memphis and Notre Dame.
Getting routed at Memphis was certainly concerning, but not the end of the world. The Tigers are quite good (presently projected for a No. 3 seed) and forced a ton of turnovers in putting together an incredible 18-2 run midway through the second half to blow the game wide open.
Getting blown out at Notre Dame, though?
Yikes.
While Virginia was getting smoked by Memphis on Dec. 19, the Fighting Irish were busy losing by 20 at home to The Citadel. They entered that disaster having just lost a home game to Georgetown in a showdown between two of the worst major conference teams.
Yet, out of nowhere, what had been an atrocious offense for most of the season put up 1.19 points per possession in the process of making mincemeat of the Cavaliers.
In the span of two hours on Saturday afternoon, Virginia (10-3, NET: 54, RES: 42.5, QUAL: 46.0) went from one of the top contenders to win the ACC to a team flirting with the bubble.
A loss to either Louisville or NC State in the next seven days would likely knock them out of the projected field.
Big 12 Summary
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8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Houston, 3. Kansas, 9. BYU, 16. Oklahoma, 19. Baylor, 37. Iowa State, 47. TCU, 48. Texas
Also Considered: Cincinnati, Kansas State, Texas Tech
Biggest Change: BYU climbs into the top 10
Oklahoma and Baylor both dropped a couple of seed lines following their Dec. 20 losses to North Carolina and Duke, respectively, but BYU (12-1, NET: 2, RES: 21.5, QUAL: 5.5) ascending to a single-digit number on the overall seed list feels like the biggest change worth discussing.
For what it's worth, I'm still not a believer in the Cougars as a title contender.
They seem to just be exploiting a system deeply rooted in scoring margin, winning their 10 games against the bottom two Quads (three vs. Q3; seven vs. Q4) by a combined margin of 361 points. Against actual competition, BYU lost by four at Utah, won a home game against San Diego State by nine and beat NC State on a neutral court by nine—and trailed with less than 10 minutes remaining in each of those victories.
Are they Top 25 good? Absolutely. But Top 10 feels like a stretch, even though that's where we're at from a seeding perspective right now.
Vegas isn't exactly a believer in the Cougars, either, as BYU's national championship odds are still at +4500 on DraftKings—tied with Arkansas and Texas A&M for 18th-best.
But, hey, credit where it's due. NET, BPI and KenPom all reward you for thrashing weak competition, and it's not like we won't get ample opportunity to figure out just how good BYU is in the gauntlet known as Big 12 conference play. The Cougars only have one game each against Houston (home) and Kansas (road), but double dips with Baylor and Iowa State will certainly put them to the test.
Big East Summary
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5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. Connecticut, 5. Marquette, 22. Villanova, 24. Creighton, 41. Providence
Also Considered: St. John's, Butler
Biggest Change: Creighton slides to a No. 6 seed
Heading into the season, it was a dead heat between Marquette, Connecticut and Creighton for projected Big East supremacy. In the preseason AP poll, they were No. 5, No. 6 and No. 8, respectively.
And while the Golden Eagles and Huskies have held serve, the Bluejays (9-4, NET: 14, RES: 43.0, QUAL: 11.5) have really stumbled through the first two months, including getting out to an 0-2 start in league play.
Granted, we're talking about an overtime loss to Villanova and a close road loss to Marquette for that 0-2 start. It could be a whole lot worse.
However, those come after a nonconference slate in which Creighton got smoked by both Colorado State and UNLV and did not win a game against a team currently projected for a single-digit seed.
If the Bluejays hadn't started the season ranked in the Top 10, they probably wouldn't be getting any votes for the AP Top 25 today, as evidenced by their average RES ranking of 43.0, which is typically a bubble-worthy data point.
Creighton really should turn a corner over the course of the next month, though. Aside from the road game against Connecticut on Jan. 17, the Bluejays ought to win each of their next nine games. And if they happen to beat the Huskies in Storrs, that could bring them all the way back to where they opened the season, looking like a No. 2 or No. 3 seed.
But for now, we're still waiting on Creighton to even prove it deserves a single-digit seed in the dance.
Big Ten Summary
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6 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Purdue, 10. Wisconsin, 12. Illinois, 34. Ohio State, 43. Nebraska, 45. Northwestern
Also Considered: Michigan State, Indiana
Biggest Change: Illinois surges, but for how long?
Since Michigan State's brutal start to the year, we've been on a constant hunt to identify the top challenger to Purdue in the Big Ten. (Though, with the way the Spartans have played over the past three weeks, it might still be them.)
Illinois (10-2, NET: 12, RES: 25.5, QUAL: 11.0) was making perhaps the best case as a squad that could make a run at the Boilermakers. The Illini beat Florida Atlantic in Madison Square Garden, blew out Rutgers in Piscataway, annihilated Missouri in St. Louis and put up great fights in the losses to Marquette and Tennessee.
With Terrence Shannon Jr. leading the way, anything felt possible for a team that climbs to a No. 3 seed in our new projected field.
But with Shannon suspended indefinitely on Dec. 28 after being charged with rape, that seed could change in a hurry.
Illinois opens 2024 with three straight against Northwestern, Purdue and Michigan State, all of which may well be losses if Shannon doesn't play.
For now, though, that does remain an "if." But we're sort of left to assume at this point that he won't be back on the court any time soon, and that this projected No. 3 seed could turn into a spot much closer to the bubble in the span of two weeks.
After all, the Illini only have one win over a team currently in the KenPom top 90, and even that victory over FAU is a bit devalued by the Owls now having two horrendous losses to Bryant and Florida Gulf Coast.
If they lose their next three games, there won't be much meat on this resume.
Pac-12 Summary
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3 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 6. Arizona, 17. Utah, 31. Colorado
Also Considered: Washington, Washington State, Oregon
Biggest Change: Utah and Colorado start league play strong
As a whole, things are not going well for the Pac-12.
The fourth-highest-rated team in the league is either Washington at No. 47 on KenPom or Washington State at No. 55 in the NET. Neither of those teams is all that close to the field, though, each have RES ranks outside the top 70. And though we've got Oregon listed as a team under consideration, the Ducks aren't exactly a strong candidate at 0-2 against Quads 1 and 2. They simply get a nod for ranking top 75 in each of the five metrics on the team sheets.
But at least Utah (11-2, NET: 16, RES: 8.5, QUAL: 29.5) and Colorado (11-2, NET: 30, RES: 35.0, QUAL: 36.0) are doing their best to make sure this doesn't crater into a one-bid league.
The Utes and Buffaloes were already the second-best and third-best teams in the league, and they created more separation from the pack with home sweeps of the Washington schools this past weekend.
Colorado impressively did so without both freshman phenom Cody Williams (wrist) and veteran leader Tristan Da Silva (ankle). KJ Simpson led the way with a combined 55 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists while TCU transfer Eddie Lampkin Jr. continued to assert himself down low, averaging 13.3 points and 9.3 rebounds over his last four games. Watch out for this team if it can get to full strength for the dance.
Utah trailed by as many as 15 points in the first half Sunday night against Washington, but seemingly could not miss from the field while riding a 60-point second half to a come-from-behind victory. Branden Carlson scored 27 of his career-high 34 points after the intermission, pushing Utah's winning streak to eight games.
Up next for both teams? Road games against the Arizona schools.
A win over the Wildcats would be massive, but avoiding what would be a not-good loss to the Sun Devils is the real key for both squads.
SEC Summary
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9 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 7. Tennessee, 13. Kentucky, 25. Auburn, 26. Texas A&M, 28. Ole Miss, 32. Mississippi State, 39. Alabama, 40. South Carolina, 50. Florida
Also Considered: Georgia
Biggest Change: Florida joins the projected field
To be sure, Florida (10-3, NET: 47, RES: 47.5, QUAL: 30.5) didn't vault into the tournament picture because of anything impressive that it accomplished in the past two weeks. The Gators needed two overtimes to outlast what is now a sub-.500 Michigan team and otherwise won Quad 4 home games against Grambling State and Quinnipiac.
Florida currently does not have a win against a projected tournament team, though it did come close in neutral-site games against both Baylor and Virginia.
But with our previous last two teams in the field (Drake and Saint Joseph's) each getting bounced by disappointing losses, Florida sneaks in to make the SEC a projected nine-bid league.
Now, do we actually expect the SEC to send nine teams to the dance?
Not really.
There are only two SEC teams in the top six projected seed lines, which tells the tale of a league loaded with bubbles ripe for popping.
Ole Miss is one of the three remaining undefeated teams in the country, but is merely No. 59 in NET and barely top 80 in the QUAL metrics. One-loss South Carolina is in a similar boat. Mississippi State has more Quad 4 losses (one) than games played against Quad 1 (zero). Alabama has blown all five of its Quad 1 opportunities.
Just a whole lot of 'meh' beyond Tennessee and Kentucky.
That should make for a captivating regular season, though, with SEC bubble drama just about guaranteed on every Saturday, starting with Mississippi State at South Carolina and Florida hosting Kentucky this coming weekend.
Frequent Multi-Bid Mid-Majors Summary
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10 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 11. Memphis, 14. Colorado State, 20. Florida Atlantic, 21. San Diego State, 23. Dayton, 30. New Mexico, 33. Nevada, 38. Gonzaga, 42. Utah State, 46. Indiana State
Also Considered: Drake, Saint Joseph's, San Francisco, Saint Mary's, Boise State
Biggest Change: WCC very likely to be a one-bid league
After losing at home to San Diego State last Friday, Gonzaga is 0-4 against the KenPom top 60. Saint Mary's recently suffered its worst loss of the season, dropping to 8-6 after a home loss to Missouri State. And though San Francisco has 11 wins, it has yet to defeat anything close to an at-large candidate.
It would be outrageously premature to say there's no chance the West Coast Conference produces an at-large bid. Things certainly haven't gone according to plan for the league, but Gonzaga (9-4, NET: 56, RES: 70.5, QUAL: 26.5), Saint Mary's (9-6, NET: 52, RES: 87.0, QUAL: 44.0) and San Francisco (11-4, NET: 39, RES: 77.5, QUAL: 45.5) all have bubble-worthy resumes right now.
However, they have gone a combined 1-9 against Quad 1 (Saint Mary's at Colorado State the lone Q1 win for the entire conference) and the next two months will be mostly landmines for all three teams.
As things stand with the NET rankings, they'll each get two Quad 1 opportunities on the road, two Quad 2 games at home, one borderline Q2/Q3 game at Santa Clara and a lot of Q3/Q4 fluff against which they'll pretty much need to go undefeated to maintain a bubble pulse.
There is also still one colossal opportunity for the WCC when Gonzaga plays at Kentucky on Feb. 10. A win at Rupp Arena would keep the Zags very much in the mix for an at-large bid, provided they don't suffer a bad loss between now and then.
If Gonzaga fails to knock off Kentucky, though, and we don't end up with a scenario in which one of the three goes undefeated in league play before faltering in the WCC championship, making the case for two WCC teams making the dance will be next to impossible.
One-Bid Leagues Summary
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21 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 27. James Madison, 29. Grand Canyon, 35. Princeton, 51. McNeese State, 52. Liberty, 53. UC Irvine, 54. Fort Wayne, 55. Samford, 56. Weber State, 57. Hofstra, 58. Akron, 59. Vermont, 60. Morehead State, 61. High Point, 62. Lipscomb, 63. Colgate, 64. Iona, 65. Norfolk State, 66. Southern, 67. Denver, 68. Merrimack
Biggest Change: McNeese State stuns Michigan
McNeese State's 87-76 win at Michigan this past Friday was a testament to the current miserable state of the Wolverines. They made just nine two-point buckets and gave the game away with a negative-11 turnover margin.
But it was also quite the statement for McNeese State (11-2, NET: 43, RES: 49.5, QUAL: 69.0) as a possible at-large candidate.
We previously discussed the Cowboys in this space, noting their season-opening road win over VCU and 21-point thrashing of UAB. Adding a road win over the Wolverines to that mix was no small feat.
Excluding the four non-D1 games which don't factor into the resume data in any way, they've only played one game against a team outside the NET top 215, blowing out Southern Miss in that one.
They really should run the table against what is otherwise a terrible Southland Conference, where Nicholls State (NET No. 218) is the only team rated in the top 260.
If they do win out, maybe McNeese State—which was a No. 14 and No. 16 seed in its only two previous trips to the NCAA tournament—could get a No. 9 or No. 10 seed. Or if the Cowboys win their next 18 games prior to slipping up in the Southland tournament, it's going to make for a very interesting in-or-out debate.
Not for nothing, Shahada Wells is now averaging 19.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.7 steals per game and is No. 10 in the KenPom Player of the Year standings.
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