Biggest Question Mark for Every NFL Team That Has Already Clinched a Playoff Berth
The NFL playoff race will carry over into Week 18, but things got a little bit clearer over the weekend.
It started when the Cleveland Browns secured a playoff spot on Thursday night with a win over the New York Jets. On Sunday, the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers clinched the No. 1 seeds in the AFC and NFC, respectively. The Kansas City Chiefs clinched the AFC West, while the Los Angeles Rams notched a wild-card berth.
The Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles came into Week 17 with their playoff spots in hand.
While several teams will have to wait a week to get into the dance, a late invitation doesn't mean they won't have chances to go deep. There isn't a truly flawless team in the 2023-24 playoff field, even if some records might suggest otherwise.
With this in mind, let's examine the biggest question surrounding every NFL team that has already clinched.
Playoff Picture
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NFC
Division Leaders
San Francisco 49ers 12-4*
Dallas Cowboys 11-5*
Detroit Lions 11-5*
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-8
Wild Card
Philadelphia Eagles 11-5*
Los Angeles Rams 9-7*
Green Bay Packers 8-8
In the Hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-8), New Orleans Saints (8-8), Minnesota Vikings (7-9), Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
AFC
Division Leaders
Baltimore Ravens 13-3*
Miami Dolphins 11-5*
Kansas City Chiefs 10-6*
Jacksonville Jaguars 9-7
Wild Card
Cleveland Browns 11-5*
Buffalo Bills 10-6
Indianapolis Colts 9-7
In the Hunt: Houston Texans (9-7), Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
Baltimore Ravens: Run Defense
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The Ravens are the closest thing we have to a flaw-free team this season. Baltimore came into Week 17 ranked fifth in total defense, fifth in total offense, first in scoring defense and fourth in scoring. Lamar Jackson has probably locked up his second MVP, and after blowout wins over the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins, the Ravens feel like they have no weaknesses.
The one question to direct toward Baltimore is this: Can the Ravens defense stop the run when/if it absolutely has to?
The Ravens came into Week 17 ranked 22nd in yards per carry allowed (4.4). That hasn't often been an issue because of Baltimore's tendency to get out in front early. Teams have found running room against the Ravens often—the Dolphins ran for 154 on Sunday—but they've rarely had a chance to stick with a run-heavy approach.
That will only happen if a defense does enough to slow Jackson, Zay Flowers, Gus Edwards and the Baltimore offense, but it isn't impossible to fathom. In the Ravens' last loss, a 33-31 thriller against Cleveland, the Browns forced two turnovers and ran for 178 yards.
At this point, forcing turnovers and controlling the game on the ground feels like a team's only hope of knocking Baltimore out of the postseason.
Cleveland Browns: Ball Security
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With starters like Nick Chubb, Deshaun Watson, Jack Conklin, Jedrick Wills and Grant Delpit on injured reserve, one might believe that injuries are Cleveland's biggest question mark. At this point, however, injuries almost feel like a non-factor for the Browns.
Head coach Kevin Stefanski just keeps finding ways to put together wins. Having the league's top-ranked defense (in yardage) has certainly helped, but winning with Joe Flacco, the team's fourth starter of the season, is still incredibly impressive.
While Flacco has added a much-needed downfield element to Cleveland's passing attack, he's also thrown eight interceptions in five starts. Giving the ball away has been a seasonlong trend for the Browns.
Cleveland has a league-high 35 giveaways this season, and it's played just one contest without a turnover.
There are several reasons to believe Cleveland can be a legitimate threat. Its offense is now explosive, and its defense can smother opposing quarterbacks—though it's been far better at home. The Browns have also notched marquee wins over teams like the Ravens and 49ers.
However, turnovers can doom the best of teams, and to this point, the Browns haven't learned how to avoid them.
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Dallas Cowboys: Questionable Coaching
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The Cowboys can claim the NFC East in Week 18 by beating the Washington Commanders. That would make Dallas a tough out, because the Cowboys have been a juggernaut when playing in Arlington.
The Cowboys haven't been perfect, though, even at home. They narrowly escaped the Lions on Saturday, thanks to a controversial finish and despite Mike McCarthy's poor late-game clock management.
McCarthy called a passing play late in the fourth quarter from the Lions' 33-yard line. It fell incomplete, the Cowboys went on to kick a field goal, and Detroit got the ball back with 1:41 left to play. The Lions went on to score a touchdown, though their potential go-ahead two-point try was nullified when Taylor Decker was deemed ineligible.
His clock management has been scrutinized dating back to McCarthy's days with the Packers, and it's not the only reason to wonder if he can steer Dallas through a deep playoff run.
McCarthy has struggled to prepare his squad for road games this season (3-5) and against quality opponents—Dallas has a 3-4 record against teams currently over .500. Mistakes have also been a problem for Dallas, which came into Sunday ranked second in the NFL with 113 penalties.
To win a Super Bowl, the Cowboys will likely need to play clean football in tight games against great teams, and they're only guaranteed a home playoff game if they clinch the division in Week 18.
Detroit Lions: Pass Defense
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The Lions have enough offensive talent to match points with almost any opponent. Between Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery and Josh Reynolds, Detroit can find a mistmatch on almost any play.
The problem is that when quarterback Jared Goff isn't playing mistake-free football, Detroit needs its defense to help get the ball back. As was the case last year, that has too often been a challenge.
Specifically, the Lions have struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks. Against Dallas, for example, Goff threw two interceptions, while Dak Prescott threw for 345 yards with two touchdowns and only one pick.
Detroit came into Sunday ranked 27th in net yards per pass attempt allowed, 25th in passing yards allowed and 23rd in points allowed.
The Lions have done a tremendous job of building up their front seven, but their secondary remains a liability that could cost them in the postseason. Perhaps things will be different if prized free-agent addition C.J. Gardner-Johnson is able to return from his torn pectoral injury for the postseason.
"He's close," head coach Dan Campbell told 97.1 The Ticket last week (h/t Jeff Risdon of Lions Wire).
If Detroit's secondary doesn't improve in a hurry, teams like the Cowboys, Rams or Eagles could easily send them home early.
Kansas City Chiefs: Offensive Miscues
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Kansas City has managed to stay afloat thanks to a terrific defense and some occasional hero ball from quarterback Patrick Mahomes. However, the defending Super Bowl champions don't feel like a true threat to the NFL's upper echelon this season.
A lack of receiver depth has caused an offensive slide in Kansas City this season. Mahomes is still great, and head coach Andy Reid hasn't forgotten how to dial up game plans. With no truly reliable target after Travis Kelce, however, drops, miscommunications and turnovers have plagued the Chiefs.
Coming into Week 17, Chiefs receivers had combined for an alarming 39 dropped passes—already five more than they had in all of 2022. Kansas City has now turned it over 26 times, three more times than in all of last season.
Kansas City can still be dangerous because of its defense, which entered Sunday ranked second in points and yards allowed, and because of Mahomes. The question is whether, in a close game, the Chiefs can mount a critical drive.
In recent losses to the Green Bay Packers, Buffalo Bills and Eagles, the Chiefs could not. It will shock exactly no one if a dropped pass, tipped pick or untimely penalty costs Kansas City in the playoffs.
Los Angeles Rams: The Tendency to Let Teams Hang Around
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In the NFC, the Rams are probably the one wild-card team that no one wants to face. Matthew Stafford is playing near an MVP level, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are a nearly indefensible receiver tandem, and Kyren Williams has emerged as a top-tier running back.
Head coach Sean McVay, meanwhile, can scheme up successful offensive plays with the best of them.
Los Angeles has gone 6-1 since its bye, with the only loss being in overtime in Baltimore. While it's hard to argue with those results, L.A. has recently experienced a trend of allowing teams to hang in games and even to surge in the fourth quarter.
In their past four games, the Rams have allowed their opponents to outscore them 48-26 in the fourth quarter. Those games resulted in an overtime loss to Baltimore, an eight-point win over the Commanders, an eight-point win over the New Orleans Saints and a one-point win over the New York Giants.
Part of this issue is rooted in defense, where L.A. ranked 22nd in passing yards allowed entering Sunday. However, L.A.'s offense has also seemed to stall late in games.
McVay and the Rams have to learn to put good teams away if they hope to make a return trip to the Super Bowl this winter.
Miami Dolphins: Injuries
8 of 10
The Dolphins got routed by the Ravens in a 56-19 contest on Sunday. However, defense, in and of itself, isn't Miami's biggest question mark right now.
No, the Dolphins defense didn't look good against Baltimore, but plenty of defenses haven't this season. The unit was actually playing extremely well before that, particularly after cornerback Jalen Ramsey (knee) was activated from injured reserve. In the six games prior to Sunday, Miami's defense surrendered an average of just 14.8 points per game.
The health of Miami's roster is a much bigger question mark right now. The Dolphins faced Baltimore without running back Raheem Moster (knee/ankle) or wideout Jaylen Waddle (ankle), and their offense doesn't operate as smoothly without those two.
During the Ravens game, cornerback Xavien Howard exited with a foot injury, while pass-rusher Bradley Chubb exited with what appears to be a season-ending knee injury. Pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips (torn Achilles) was already out for the year, while injuries have caused constant shuffling along the offensive line.
The Dolphins' win over Dallas remains their only victory over a team that currently has a winning record. The unfortunate reality is that Miami may not have enough healthy difference-makers to record another one.
Philadelphia Eagles: The Wrong Kind of Momentum
9 of 10
Just over a month ago, the Eagles had a league-best 10-1 record and appeared destined for a repeat trip to the big game. Numerous issues have cropped up since then, though. Philly has lost four of five and is now staring down a wild-card spot.
"We have to get things fixed," head coach Nick Sirianni said, per ESPN's Tim McManus, "and we have to get them fixed fast."
That's an understatement.
The problem is that the Eagles' issues may not be correctable. No one is stepping in to save a putrid pass defense that ranked 27th in yards allowed before giving up 323 yards and three touchdowns to Kyler Murray on Sunday. In an NFC field loaded with potent passers, that's the first and biggest issue.
Early in the season, though, the Eagles were able to overcome their poor defense. Jalen Hurts was making enough splash plays to carry the offense, and the defense was doing enough up front to force timely mistakes.
That hasn't been the case recently, though. Opposing quarterbacks have become quick to recognize holes in the secondary, and Hurts is making too many mistakes while trying to press—he now has 19 turnovers after only eight in 2022.
And Hurts has had to press often because the Eagles have struggled to field a traditional running attack with D'Andre Swift and their backfield down the stretch.
The Eagles' only win since the start of December was a narrow one against the Giants that Philly easily could have blown. The Eagles are backing their way into the postseason, and if their confidence isn't rattled right now, it should be.
San Francisco 49ers: Run Defense
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Like the Ravens, the 49ers have struggled to contain the run at times this season. Also like the Ravens, the 49ers haven't always been concerned about that because of their ability to put points on the board.
The loss to Baltimore, however, showed just how things can snowball for the 49ers defense when it's playing from behind. Quarterback Brock Purdy threw four interceptions in the game, Baltimore got a big lead and went on to rush for 102 yards and 3.9 yards per carry—even though the 49ers knew the run was coming.
This came a week after the Cardinals ripped the 49ers for 234 yards on the ground. Back in October, the Browns and Cincinnati Bengals gashed San Francisco for 160 and 134 yards, respectively in wins over the 49ers.
Coming into Week 17, San Francisco ranked just 19th in yards per carry allowed (4.2) but fourth in rushing yards allowed because, well, teams were often quick to abandon the run. The Commanders did exactly that on Sunday, despite averaging 4.4 yards per carry.
Entering the playoffs, teams should know that they can attack San Francisco on the ground. Whether a team can do enough to contain Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Co. to stick with the run for four full quarters is another story, but it's happened before, and it could happen to San Francisco again.
*Advanced statistics from Pro Football Reference
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