NFL 2023 MVP Odds: Tips on the Favorites and Best Values for Week 17
We may have finally found clarity in the race for the 2023 NFL MVP in Week 16. That it took this long for a clear front-runner to emerge is surprising, almost as surprising as the Baltimore Ravens' domination of the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night.
Baltimore rolled to a 33-19 victory in Santa Clara, while quarterback Lamar Jackson (252 yards, 2 TDs, 45 rushing yards) had another strong performance. He was clearly the best offensive player on the field on Monday, and 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy—who entered Week 16 as the MVP favorite—flopped hard.
Unsurprisingly, Jackson has taken over as the favorite, and he could potentially run away with the award over the final two weeks. However, the race isn't over just yet. Below, you'll find a look at the updated MVP picture and some wagering tips for Week 17.
Find the latest NFL MVP odds at DraftKings.
NFL MVP Favorites Entering Week 17
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Lamar Jackson -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
Christian McCaffrey +400 (bet $100 to win $400)
Tua Tagovailoa +1000
Brock Purdy +1200
Josh Allen +1400
Dak Prescott +2000
Tyreek Hill +2200
Jalen Hurts +2500
It's Too Late to Buy into Jackson
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We noted last week that the MVP race could be decided in Week 16, and there's a very good chance that it was. Jackson was phenomenal once again, and he did it on a massive stage, which will certainly carry weight among MVP voters.
The issue for bettors is that Jackson no longer represents value. At -160 odds, there isn't a ton to gain by picking Jackson to win, and there's still a fair amount of risk.
While Jackson appears to be the obvious choice right now, the Ravens still have two tough games to navigate. They have to beat the Miami Dolphins at home this week to secure the AFC's No. 1 seed, and if they fail to do that, Jackson will have to fend off a scrappy Pittsburgh Steelers team in the season finale.
Miami finally proved that it can beat a playoff-caliber opponent when it outlasted the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. The Dolphins defense has surged down the stretch, and if Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert, Tua Tagovailoa and the offense can get hot, Miami could pull off the upset this week.
Miami is also still in the hunt for the AFC's No. 1 seed, so it will treat Week 17 as a playoff game.
Pittsburgh isn't in the same tier as Baltimore and Miami, but it has traditionally played tough against Baltimore. The Steelers actually won the first meeting between the two, and it would surprise absolutely no one if—with a playoff berth potentially on the line—they do it again in Week 18.
Though unlikely, it's not impossible that Baltimore drops its final two. If that happens, voters could sour on Jackson's candidacy.
Purdy's MVP Campaign Is Officially Over
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One bad game won't define Purdy's career. He's still a terrific young quarterback, and he can still be San Francisco's signal-caller of the future. However, Purdy's MVP campaign pretty much ended on Monday night.
After spending most of the season as one of the league's most prolific and efficient quarterbacks, Purdy melted down against an aggressive Ravens defense. He completed just 56.3 percent of his passes, tossed four interceptions, posted a dismal 42.6 passer rating and was eventually pulled for Sam Darnold.
It happened on a national stage, and it happened at home, and that's going to leave a lasting impression on MVP voters. Questions already existed about Purdy's legitimacy because of San Francisco's stellar supporting cast, and Purdy doubters can now point to Monday's performance as a source of validation.
If there's a 49er who can overcome Monday's performance and still win the MVP, it's running back Christian McCaffrey. He played well and still leads the league in touches, rushing yards, scrimmage yards and is tied with Mostert with a league-high 21 touchdowns.
If Jackson stumbles this week, McCaffrey could sneak in and steal the award.
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Don't Discount Tyreek Hill Just Yet
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Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill remains a long shot at +2200, but bettors seeking a home-run swing can still consider him a viable option entering Week 17.
Hill's case took a major hit when he missed Week 15 and the Dolphins won in blowout fashion anyway. He returned this past week, though, and had another strong outing (99 yards on nine receptions).
Though it'll be tough, Hill can still reach his preseason goal of 2,000 receiving yards. However, he'll have to average 179.5 receiving yards over the final two weeks to do it. That's not wholly unrealistic for Hill, who has already topped 180 yards twice this season.
There are two big obstacles in Hill's way, though. The first is the Ravens' vaunted pass defense, which has allowed few receivers to run free in 2023. The second is the fact that if the Dolphins win this week and the Buffalo Bills lose, Miami may be content to rest starters in Week 18—having locked up the AFC East.
If Jackson struggles this week and Hill goes off, there's still a chance for the talented receiver to come out on top. Is it likely? No. If, however, you're looking for a dark horse to back in Week 17, Hill is your best bet.
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