NFL 2023 MVP Odds: Tips on the Favorites and Best Values for Week 16
While the 2023 NFL MVP race is still far from decided, we saw a couple of shifts in Week 15.
Notably, we saw Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott struggle once again on the road. Against the Buffalo Bills, he went 21-of-34 for only 134 yards and an interception in a 31-10 loss.
Prescott, who was the top MVP favorite entering Week 15, has now fallen behind Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson.
Prescott will, however, have a chance to put himself back into the mix over the next couple of weeks. Dallas visits the Miami Dolphins this weekend and hosts the Detroit Lions in Week 17.
Will Prescott rebound against Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins? Will Purdy or Jackson solidify their case in a head-to-head matchup? Let's take a look at the updated MVP picture and some betting tips for Week 16.
Find the latest NFL MVP odds at DraftKings.
NFL MVP Favorites Entering Week 16
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Brock Purdy -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Lamar Jackson +450 (bet $100 to win $450)
Dak Prescott +700
Christian McCaffrey +1000
Josh Allen +1200
Jalen Hurts +2000
Tyreek Hill +2500
Patrick Mahomes +2500
MVP Could Be Decided in Week 16
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Now that Purdy's odds have shifted to -200, it's impossible to get a good value with the San Francisco 49ers quarterback. There's also no guarantee that Purdy will win the award, as Monday night's game with the Baltimore Ravens will determine a ton.
Jackson has a legitimate chance to step in and steal the lead this week. All he needs to do is go into San Francisco, have another strong outing, and beat the 49ers. That will be easier in theory than in practice, but we've seen plenty of Monday-night upsets this season.
Fair or not, the argument still exists that Purdy is simply a game manager who takes advantage of true playmakers like Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. Jackson, on the other hand, is the most pivotal piece of the Ravens offense.
Baltimore is in position to secure the AFC's No. 1 seed. After struggling without Jackson in each of the past two seasons, it's easy to make a case that no one is more valuable to his team than the Louisville product.
The winner of the Week 16 finale has a great chance to enter Week 17 as the front-runner.
However, if both quarterbacks struggle in a sloppy defensive game, Prescott could be right back in the mix. He'll have to have a tremendous game and prove that Dallas can beat a playoff-caliber team on the road.
Given the strong supporting cast that Prescott enjoys, that's far from an impossibility.
If you believe in any of the top three favorites, now is the time to make a final wager. Whoever becomes the favorite with two weeks to go is unlikely to provide anything close to wagering value.
Tyreek Hill's Case Takes a Hit
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For most of the season, we've suggested taking a flier on Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill. He's always been likely to steal a few votes from Tagovailoa, and he was on pace to set a new single-season record for receiving yards.
Breaking Calvin Johnson's record of 1,964 yards might be enough to give Hill the nod, should any of the top QBs falter.
However, Hill's MVP bid took a hit when he missed Miami's game against the New York Jets with an ankle injury. He'll now have to average 141 receiving yards over his final three games to surpass Johnson's record, and that won't be easy.
The Dolphins finish the season against the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills. And while Hill is likely to face Dallas this week, according to Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio, there's no guarantee he will
Hill still represents a strong value at +2500, but his chances of stealing the MVP away from a quarterback are now longer—especially with Purdy and Jackson continuing to play at a high level.
This Could Be the Last Chance to Find Value with McCaffrey
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McCaffrey is the other non-quarterback with a realistic chance of winning the MVP this season. The 49ers running back leads the league in rushing yards (1,292), scrimmage yards (1,801) and offensive touchdowns (20).
If Purdy falters down the stretch and/or McCaffrey continues to have massive games while routing teams like Baltimore and the Los Angeles Rams, we could see our first skill player win the MVP since Adrian Peterson in 2012.
It's worth noting that McCaffrey has the endorsement of his quarterback.
"I think Christian should be MVP," Purdy said, per ESPN's Nick Wagoner. "I really do believe that. He does everything for us ... and so in my eyes that's an MVP."
McCaffrey is still a bit of a bargain at +1000, but that could change over the weekend. If, for example, Purdy struggles in a victory over the Ravens, while McCaffrey has a game like he did in Week 15, McCaffrey's odds will shorten significantly.
That's not an impossibility either. While the Ravens rank first in net passing yards per attempt allowed, they rank just 21st in yards per carry allowed.
Last week, McCaffrey logged five receptions, 187 scrimmage yards and three total touchdowns. A performance like that against Baltimore would further highlight just how valuable the 27-year-old has been.
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