Full NBA Playoff Bracket Predictions 2 Months Into 2023-24 Season
The first two months of the NBA season have given us a big enough sample size to diagnose some teams as being playoff locks (hello, Boston Celtics) or lottery leaders (sorry, Detroit Pistons).
While there's still a fair amount of parity in the middle, we could already be getting a look at some early playoff matchups.
Based on current record, remaining strength of schedule (henceforth referred to as SOS) and other factors, here's a best guess at how a full 2024 NBA playoff bracket will look.
Note: Remaining strength of schedule rankings via Tankathon.com. All stats and record accurate as of Dec. 27.
East Quarterfinals: (4) Miami Heat vs. (5) New York Knicks
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Miami Heat
Current Record/Seed: 18-12, 5th in East
Remaining SOS Rank: 24th overall
In what would be a rematch of last year's Eastern Conference Semifinals, Miami and New York continue their muddled history of postseason meetings here.
Injuries have plagued both teams this season, although Tyler Herro has returned from an ankle injury and leads the Heat with 24.0 points per game. While Miami will likely continue sniffing around any and all potential star trades, this roster is rock-solid as is, especially with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo both playing at All-Star levels.
Rookie forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. (13.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.0 steals) has been a godsend for Miami, as has the rejuvenated play of Duncan Robinson (15.1 points on 44.9 percent shooting from three).
With the Orlando Magic's hot start beginning to cool, look for the Heat to rise to the No. 4 seed in the East.
New York Knicks
Current Record/Seed: 17-12, 6th in East
Remaining SOS Rank: 13th overall
Losing Mitchell Robinson for the season to ankle surgery hurts, although don't expect the Knicks to fall out of the playoffs in the East as long as Jalen Brunson is around.
This team still has a lot to sort out, from finding a replacement for Robinson to making a decision on Immanuel Quickley's future. Expecting a leap from RJ Barrett may be foolish five years into his career as well.
Still, with Brunson and Julius Randle, there's plenty of offensive firepower on this team. Josh Hart does whatever is needed, and Donte DiVincenzo (44.2 percent shooting from three) has been a nice pickup.
This roster is in desperate need of a trade, although we have enough belief in Brunson to project a No. 5 seed by the time the season ends.
East Quarterfinals: (3) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (6) Orlando Magic
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Philadelphia 76ers
Current Record/Seed: 20-9, 3rd in East
Remaining SOS Rank: 18th overall
While the 76ers may not catch the Boston Celtics or Milwaukee Bucks in the final standings, they won't finish too far behind them, either, as long as Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey are healthy.
These two have led the NBA's most successful lineup this season (minimum 200 possessions played), with the combination of Embiid, Maxey, Tobias Harris, De'Anthony Melton and Nicolas Batum possessing a net rating of plus-33.3 in 467 total possessions together.
This team now has some first-round picks to dangle as well around the trade deadline, potentially adding one more starter or key role player to help solidify its place in the standings.
Just like last season, the 76ers will finish a very respectable third in the East.
Orlando Magic
Current Record/Seed: 18-11, 4th in East
Remaining SOS Rank: 26th overall
Orlando is fourth in the East, has one of the easiest remaining schedules and possesses an elite defense, so why the demotion here?
The Magic are just 4-6 since beginning the season 14-5 and still can't shoot (33.9 percent from three, 27th overall). A minus-2.7 net rating over the last 10 games is a little concerning as well.
While we're not projecting Orlando to completely fall out of the playoffs, a slight slide down the standings seems inevitable. Finishing as the No. 6 seed in the East after coming in 13th last season should still be viewed as a success, even if Embiid and the Sixers make their postseason run a short one.
East Quarterfinals: (2) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (7) Cleveland Cavaliers
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Milwaukee Bucks
Current Record/Seed: 22-8, 2nd in East
Remaining SOS Rank: 5th overall
The Bucks are starting to mesh, which should terrify the rest of the NBA.
In shaking off a ho-hum 5-4 start to the season while getting Damian Lillard acclimated, Milwaukee has gone 17-4 overall since Nov. 13.
Giannis Antetokounmpo should probably be getting more MVP love (30.8 points, 11.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.2 blocks, 60.1 percent shooting overall), and Lillard is putting up his usual eye-popping numbers despite not shooting to his standards yet.
If the Bucks can add one more piece at the trade deadline and continue to improve defensively, they'll push the Boston Celtics for the No. 1 seed all the way into April.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Current Record/Seed: 17-13, 7th in East
Remaining SOS Rank: 27th overall
Cleveland should be thankful it possesses one of the easiest remaining schedules, as injuries to Evan Mobley and Darius Garland mean this core may not be back together until February.
Still, as long as Donovan Mitchell is around, this is a playoff team in the East.
The Cavs have a sneaky-deep roster that's even managed to go 5-3 this season in games Mitchell has missed due to injury, a sign that the roof isn't going to completely cave in as other stars remain sidelined.
Assuming this roster is back to full strength around the All-Star break, Cleveland will make it out of the play-in tournament and give the Bucks a real test in the first round.
East Quarterfinals: (1) Boston Celtics vs. (8) Indiana Pacers
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Boston Celtics
Current Record/Seed: 23-6, 1st in East
Remaining SOS Rank: 30th overall
The Celtics own the NBA's best record, possess a top-five offense and defense and have the easiest remaining schedule of any team.
There's simply no reason Boston won't finish as the No. 1 seed in the East, no matter how much the Bucks and 76ers may push them.
The entire starting five could make a case to be named All-Stars in the East, as this is the best version of Derrick White we've ever seen.
Boston is the NBA's best team right now, one packed with talent, experience and enough players hungry enough to win their first title.
Indiana Pacers
Current Record/Seed: 15-14, 8th in East
Remaining SOS Rank: 6th overall
The Pacers have gone just 3-6 since the In-Season Tournament championship and are 24th in net rating over this stretch (minus-5.6).
Considering Indiana has one of the NBA's hardest remaining schedules, why the belief that it can still make the playoffs?
For starters, the middle-to-end of the East is pretty rough. The Pacers would have to finish behind all three of the Chicago Bulls, Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors to fall out of the play-in tournament altogether, which would mean a total collapse on their part.
Assuming Indiana finished somewhere between the Nos. 7 and 10 seeds, we've seen what it can do in an actual tournament setup. The Pacers are still good enough to make it out of the play-in and into the East playoffs.
West Quarterfinals: (4) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (5) Sacramento Kings
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Los Angeles Clippers
Current Record/Seed: 18-12, 4th in West
Remaining SOS Rank: 16th overall
Give Russell Westbrook all the credit in the world for accepting a demotion following the James Harden trade. After a 3-7 start, Los Angeles is 15-5 with Westbrook as a sixth man.
This kind of pace is going to solidify the Clippers as a top-four team in the West, especially since Kawhi Leonard and Paul George (55 of a possible 60 games played) have been remarkably durable.
Harden is also playing some incredibly efficient basketball as of late, averaging 20.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, 8.9 assists, 1.6 steals and shooting 47.5 percent from three while turning the ball over just 2.6 times over his last 14 games.
With good health, the Clippers will get home-court advantage in the first round.
Sacramento Kings
Current Record/Seed: 17-12, 6th in West
Remaining SOS Rank: 17th overall
After finishing third in the West last season, the Kings will have to recapture some of their offensive magic to climb this high again.
Sacramento's scoring attack ranks just 12th now, not nearly good enough to carry a defense that's continued to struggle.
Keegan Murray has been much better as of late, putting up 20.8 points on 49.2 percent shooting from three over his last nine contests, including a 47-point explosion on Dec. 16.
If the Kings can acquire another star (or at least shore up a questionable bench), Sacramento should fall no further than fifth in a tough Western Conference.
West Quarterfinals: (3) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. (6) Dallas Mavericks
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Minnesota Timberwolves
Current Record/Seed: 22-7, 1st in West
Remaining SOS Rank: 28th overall
The Wolves are good this season, but it's probably too much to ask for Minnesota to actually hang on to the No. 1 seed in the West. Some recent slippage in play (22nd in offense, 8th in net rating over the last 10 games) suggests as much.
This being said, don't expect Minnesota to fall too far. This is a legitimately great defense with Rudy Gobert looking far more comfortable in Year 2 following his blockbuster trade. A fourth Defensive Player of the Year trophy is entirely possible.
Anthony Edwards vs. Luka Dončić is a dream first-round matchup, as both rank in the top eight in scoring average in NBA playoff history.
A No. 3 seed for Minnesota is ultimately a compliment to the teams above them more than a knock on the Wolves themselves.
Dallas Mavericks
Current Record/Seed: 18-12, 5th in West
Remaining SOS Rank: 9th overall
Dallas still being fifth overall in a loaded West while Kyrie Irving has missed nearly half the team's games is a remarkable feat. Credit Dončić, of course.
Still, we're skeptical of the new-look starting lineup Jason Kidd has promised, one that features Dante Exum, Derrick Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II alongside Dončić and Irving. While there's a lot of length and switchability, both rebounding and the overall muscle of the team is taking a hit here.
Unless the Mavs make a move, finishing around the No. 5 or No. 6 seed feels about right, especially with a tough remaining schedule. This roster is going to score a lot of points and give up a lot while being in real danger of getting bounced in the first round.
West Quarterfinals: (2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers
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Oklahoma City Thunder
Current Record/Seed: 19-9, 3rd in West
Remaining SOS Rank: 21st overall
OKC should actually be better than its record, as a net rating of plus-7.8 ranks third overall in the NBA this season.
The young Thunder should only be getting better as the year goes on and have more trade assets than anyone to try to improve. There's simply not enough minutes to go around for all of the young talent on this roster, meaning OKC could dangle players such as Ousmane Dieng, Aleksej Pokusevski and others in a trade for win-now help.
With a top-six ranking in both offense and defense, this is a team that's destined to go on a real winning streak sometime soon, ultimately moving it all the way up to No. 2 in the West.
Los Angeles Lakers
Current Record/Seed: 16-15, 9th in West
Remaining SOS Rank: 15th overall
The Lakers weren't built to be a regular-season team, and that's OK.
We saw what this group can do when it truly gives maximum effort, as L.A. became the first franchise to win an In-Season tournament championship. At its peak, the two-man combo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis is still among the very best in the NBA.
That being said, everything between now and April will be ugly. We've already seen D'Angelo Russell get moved to the bench, and Gabe Vincent is projected to miss the next six to eight weeks following knee surgery. History tells us that James and Davis will inevitably miss time as well.
Don't be surprised if the Lakers finish an even 41-41, make their way out of the play-in tournament and then win a playoff round or two. This is a postseason team, one that's going to have to start as a play-in team in the West, however.
West Quarterfinals: (1) Denver Nuggets vs. (8) New Orleans Pelicans
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Denver Nuggets
Current Record/Seed: 22-10, 2nd in West
Remaining SOS Rank: 22nd overall
This the best team in the West, even if Denver's overall record hasn't shown it thus far.
The Nuggets are still an elite team when their star tandem is healthy, as Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray have a net rating of plus-18.0 in 909 possessions together this season (99th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass). Denver is 13-2 with Murray in the lineup this year and just 8-5 when he misses due to injury.
Teams like the Timberwolves and Thunder will flirt with the No. 1 seed all the way until April, but Denver knows the importance of keeping home-court advantage throughout the playoffs and continues to be deadly at Ball Arena (12-2 this season).
Much like last year, the Nuggets will win the West.
New Orleans Pelicans
Current Record/Seed: 17-14, 7th in East
Remaining SOS Rank: 11th overall
While the play-in tournament in the East is rather depressing, the West version will be an absolute bloodbath of a battle between teams like the Pelicans, Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets.
Of these teams, the Pelicans stand out as one that possesses both win-now talent and the assets to improve at the trade deadline as needed.
This is also a team getting healthier, as Trey Murphy III is back in the lineup and Larry Nance Jr. is nearing his return from a rib injury as well.
If New Orleans can add one more guard to the rotation and continues to grow together, it will ultimately make it back to the Western Conference playoffs.
