NFL Playoff Picture 2023-24: AFC, NFC Clinching and Elimination Scenarios for Week 16

Even with just three weeks left in the regular season, the 2023 NFL playoff race remains wide open.

In the AFC, only one game divides the sixth-place Cincinnati Bengals from the Denver Broncos in 11th. The margins are equally small in the NFC, where the Minnesota Vikings in sixth and the Green Bay Packers in 11th are separated by the same margin.

Heading into Week 16, the Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia are the only teams that have clinched a playoff berth.

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AFC Playoff Picture

Postseason Standings

1. Baltimore Ravens (11-3) 
2. Miami Dolphins (10-4) 
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5) 
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6) 
5. Cleveland Browns (9-5) 
6. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) 
7. Indianapolis Colts (8-6) 
8. Houston Texans (8-6) 
9. Buffalo Bills (8-6) 
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) 
11. Denver Broncos (7-7) 
12. Las Vegas Raiders (6-8) 
13. Los Angeles Chargers (5-9)

Eliminated Teams

• New England Patriots 
• New York Jets 
• Tennessee Titans

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NFC Playoff Picture

Postseason Standings

1. San Francisco 49ers (11-3) 
2. Dallas Cowboys (10-4) 
3. Detroit Lions (10-4) 
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) 
5. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) 
6. Minnesota Vikings (7-7) 
7. Los Angeles Rams (7-7) 
8. Seattle Seahawks (7-7) 
9. New Orleans Saints (7-7) 
10. Atlanta Falcons (6-8) 
11. Green Bay Packers (6-8) 
12. New York Giants (5-9) 
13. Chicago Bears (5-9)

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Eliminated Teams

• Washington Commanders 
• Arizona Cardinals 
• Carolina Panthers

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The Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins and Cleveland Browns could all punch their playoff tickets with the right sequence of results:

In addition to guaranteeing a top-seven finish, the Dolphins would be doing the Philadelphia Eagles a big favor if they take down the Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles would head into their Christmas Day clash against the New York Giants knowing they can claim sole possession of first place in the NFC East.

When it comes to sorting out the playoff picture, few games could be more consequential than Cincinnati's matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Bengals have managed to keep their heads above water despite Joe Burrow's season-ending wrist injury. They've won three of their four games with Jake Browning as their starter, most recently overcoming a 17-3 halftime deficit to beat the Minnesota Vikings in overtime.

The Steelers, meanwhile, have had less luck since their starter, Kenny Pickett, went down. They're on a three-game losing streak, with Mason Rudolph taking over for Mitchell Trubisky this week.

Pittsburgh won't be mathematically eliminated from the playoff equation with a loss, but it could be a near-fatal blow.

In the NFC, Thursday's tilt between the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints could reshape the wild-card battle.

The Saints would fall a full game behind for the last spot, while the Rams will open up some breathing room with a win and a loss for the Seattle Seahawks. New Orleans could turn the tables on Los Angeles if it leaves SoFi Stadium with a victory.

Considering the Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Jacksonville Jaguars) and Atlanta Falcons (Indianapolis Colts) all have tricky games ahead, don't expect the three-team battle in the NFC South to look much different come Monday.

The same goes for the AFC South, where almost any combination of outcomes is plausible in Week 16. None of the Jaguars, Colts or Houston Texans has what you'd consider a gimme, but none of the three is a massive underdog on paper, either.