UFC 296 Predictions: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Picks
The UFC is closing out 2023 with a bang.
This Saturday's UFC 296 card in Las Vegas marks the promotion's last of the year, and it's suitably stacked for the occasion.
The show will be headlined by a welterweight title fight, with champion Leon Edwards in his second title defense against trash-talking challenger Colby Covington.
There will also be a title up for grabs in the co-main event, with new flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja looking for his first title defense against proven finisher Brandon Royval.
The middle bout of the main card will see undefeated Kazakh welterweight Shavkat Rakhmonov look to take a final leap into title contention against two-time title challenger Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson, who is one of the best welterweights of this generation.
Before that, Paddy Pimblett will look for the biggest win of his career at the expense of fading legend Tony Ferguson, who is facing a record-tying seventh straight loss in the Octagon.
All in all, it's an excellent-looking card that could unfold in any number of ways.
Keep scrolling to see how the B/R combat sports squad sees it all shaking out in Sin City.
Editor's note: The Ian Machado Garry-Vicente Luque fight has been pulled from the main card.
Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington
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Tom Taylor: For a long time, it was clear that Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington were the two best welterweights on earth. Nobody could beat them, and during their two-fight rivalry, they pushed one another to the absolute brink.
I believe that era is over. Edwards sent Usman up to middleweight with two-straight losses, and while Covington somehow scored a title shot ahead of an amply more deserving contender in Belal Muhammad, I don't see it going well for him.
Edwards will be wise to the American's game and will stop enough takedowns to impose his strategy. A unanimous decision will await him after five rough rounds.
Prediction: Edwards by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Covington, to say the least, is an acquired taste.
He's a polarizing figure outside the cage and will likely be on the short end of fan sentiment against a charismatic and popular champion like Edwards.
But once inside, it could finally be his night.
As Tom mentioned, his pair of matches with Usman created one of the most compelling rivalries the promotion has ever produced. Edwards was subsequently a two-time winner against Usman, but the vibe here is that Covington's relentless pressure and seemingly bottomless gas tank will be the determining factor in Las Vegas.
Prediction: Covington by split decision
Haris Kruskic: I would like Colby Covington's chances a lot more if he wasn't coming back from a nearly two-year layoff and a legal battle with Jorge Masvidal. Leon Edwards proved he has the takedown defense to keep the fight standing against Kamaru Usman, and I don't think a returning Colby has the chops to win this stand-up battle.
Prediction: Edwards by unanimous decision
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval
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Tom Taylor: The UFC flyweight title has been passed around like a hot potato over the last few years, which makes it all the more amazing that Demetrious Johnson was able to defend it 11 consecutive times before setting off for ONE Championship.
I expect the title to continue being tossed around until another Johnson-esque fighter comes along. I don't think current champ Alexandre Pantoja is that guy, but I do expect him to hang onto the belt for a little longer. He's simply too well-rounded and too experienced to be outdone by someone like Brandon Royval who, while great at finding the finish, doesn't have as much experience in fights of this magnitude.
Pantoja survives a couple of early scares and takes control.
Prediction: Pantoja by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Agreed on all counts with the esteemed Mr. Taylor.
Pantoja is no "Mighty Mouse." He may not even be a Deiveson Figueiredo.
But he indeed ought to be too much for Royval, who's fallen short each time he's climbed to the highest level, including an initial encounter with the now-champion on a Fight Night show in 2021.
Prediction: Pantoja by submission, Rd. 3
Haris Kruskic: This is the most underrated fight on the whole card. No one's talking about it, but a title fight between two competitors with a lot to prove and no clear favorite can make for fireworks.
Brandon Royval's looked outstanding during his three-fight win streak. However, Pantoja may just be a level above him as shown by his submission win over Royval two years ago.
Prediction: Pantoja by submission, Rd. 3
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson
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Tom Taylor: Don't get me wrong: I think Shavkat Rakhmonov will beat Stephen Thompson and assert himself as a serious title threat this weekend. But I am shocked by the odds for this fight.
Rakhmonov is a -650 favorite, and Thompson is a +470 underdog. That is ridiculous. Thompson is a two-time former title challenger and, even in his early 40s, remains one of the best welterweights out there. He may lose this fight, but his takedown defense and world-class striking will make it competitive.
Rakhmonov by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: There are all kinds of reasons to pick Rakhmonov here.
He's younger and unbeaten, and he's surely confident given finishes in each of his 17 pro fights, including five in the UFC.
But my typical lean in these step-up fights is toward the more established commodity. That's Thompson. And despite his advanced age and less-pristine record, he still seems close enough to the top of his game to avoid being steamrolled.
Roll the dice. Take a flyer. Go for the upset.
Thompson by TKO, Rd. 3
Haris Kruskic: I'm expecting this to be a pretty dominant showing for Shavkat Rakhmonov. That's not a slight against Wonderboy, but rather a testament to how good 'Nomad' is.
We've seen a few matchups in recent years between aging contenders with name value and the fastest-rising fighters in a division. That's intentional on the UFC's part. It rarely ends well for the former and gives the company a new name to throw in the title picture. This shouldn't be any different.
Shavkat Rakhmonov by unanimous decision
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Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett
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Tom Taylor: A lot of people were upset when this matchup was announced, but if Tony Ferguson is going to stick around to risk a seventh-straight loss, Paddy Pimblett is the kind of opponent he should be fighting.
While Pimblett is one of the most popular fighters in the UFC, it's pretty evident at this point that he's a fringe contender at best. He should have lost his last fight to Jared Gordon. His other UFC wins came against low-level opposition, and he was nearly knocked out in one of those fights.
Even a shop-worn version of Ferguson should be able to catch him with something. Let's not forget that he hurt both Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler before he lost to them.
Call it an elbow and follow-up punches, and a bad night for "The Baddy."
Prediction: Ferguson by TKO, Rd. 2
Lyle Fitzsimmons: OK, here's where Tom and I disagree. Bigly.
Pimblett may or may not climb to a title level on his fighting merit. But I had him winning the fight with Gordon, and it seems to me that Ferguson is no better than a familiar facsimile of the dynamic fighter who strung together 12 straight wins from 2013-2019.
He's lost six straight since and has been finished four straight times. So, regardless of where Pimblett's career arc might ultimately take him, the Englishman is the better man now.
Prediction: Pimblett by unanimous decision
Haris Kruskic: Is this the first time in UFC history that someone on a six-fight win streak faces someone on a six-fight losing streak? Unreal booking.
I'm picking Paddy Pimblett for similar reasons I picked Rakhmonov. UFC loves squeezing as much juice out of a veteran fighter with name value as they can, regardless of what their recent record looks like. This performance should only put more eyes on Pimblett.
Prediction: Pimblett by TKO, Rd. 2
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