2024 NBA Draft Prospects Failing to Impress Scouts
NBA evaluators entered the season with certain expectations based on high school scouting and signs in college foreshadowing improvement for 2023-24. But so far, a number of high-profile and projected breakout names have disappointed scouts.
There is still time for the following prospects to turn their seasons around and win back support. Dereck Lively II struggled early last season before making adjustments, regaining scouts' confidence, going in the lottery and instantly contributing as an NBA rookie.
But the pressure is starting to mount on these prospects, given their underwhelming starts and where the bar had been set.
It's not time to completely write these players off draft boards—they're just currently sliding down heading into conference play.
Izan Almansa
1 of 7
- School/Team: G League Ignite
- Position: PF
- Age: 18
- Size: 6'10", 230 lbs
After winning MVP of the U19 World Cup, Izan Almansa has finished with single-digit scoring numbers in 11 of 13 games for Ignite.
There were always questions about how his offensive game would translate to an NBA setting, given the lack of ball-handling and shooting skill for a forward who is also limited athletically. Optimism over his pro outlook has been fueled by a lot of instinct plays, good hands, short touch and hustle that work for play-finishing cuts, rolls and putbacks and miscellaneous paint buckets.
But he's struggled to get involved while being heavily reliant on being set up or in the right place at the right time. And there have been very limited signs of any translatable perimeter skill, despite the occasional flashes over the summer of shooting and face-up drives. He's made just two threes and 10-of-27 free-throw attempts so far while only showing ball-handling ability in the open floor.
Almansa has suffered from Ignite's questionable point guard play and passing from the rookies and veterans. But there is still a clear lack of excitement tied to the upside of a 6'10", 230-pound forward who doesn't create, shoot or change games defensively.
Age (18), tools and unteachable feel remain key selling points to Almansa—they just don't currently seem like enough to justify preseason expectations.
Justin Edwards
2 of 7
- School/Team: Kentucky
- Position: SF
- Age: 19, Freshman
- Size: 6'8", 203 lbs
Justin Edwards' efficiency (46.6 percent FG) hasn't masked weaknesses in his game that are making it difficult to justify preseason top-five projections.
Other than using his athleticism for play-finishing and defense, he hasn't sold scouts on any one skill.
Basic handles have limited him to straight-line drives and no self-creation. He's totaled 13 free throws and eight assists in nine games. And he's shooting 25.9 percent on 3.0 three-point attempts, unconvincing results for a player who's going to need shotmaking as a strength to score at the next level.
Edwards is relying almost exclusively on offensive rebounding and cutting for scoring, as he's struggled converting in spot-up situations (9-of-29) and transition (5-of-15), and he's been limited to just six ball-screen possessions, one post-up and none out of isolation.
His negative 0.2 box plus-minus ranks last among Kentucky rotation players.
The physical tools, quickness and leaping buy Edwards time, but the advanced stats say they haven't yielded a positive impact, he hasn't demonstrated one advanced skill, and he's a year older than most in his class.
Riley Kugel
3 of 7
- School/Team: Florida
- Position: SG
- Age: 19, Sophomore
- Size: 6'5", 207 lbs
Riley Kugel's late-season freshman breakout and sporadic scoring spurts are starting to look more like teases than real indicators.
The highlights of athletic plays and shotmaking can be persuasive, but the reality is that his particular style and lack of versatility aren't conducive to NBA supporting roles.
Among Florida's eight rotation players who've logged at least 100 minutes, Kugel's minus-0.5 box plus-minus ranks last, while starters Tyrese Samuel and Walter Clayton Jr. are both over 8.0.
Generating just 0.73 points per possession (23rd percentile) in the half court entering Thursday, Kugel has been erratic with his shot selection and shooting. And with playmaking numbers like 31 turnovers to 19 assists for a 6'5" 2-guard, he won't have much margin for error as a scorer.
Playing off the ball, he was 4-of-22 in spot-up situations entering Thursday, struggling with a catch-and-shoot game he'll need at the next level while also failing to convert on almost all of his drives.
As impressive as some of his flashes are, scouts aren't seeing a winning game or NBA fit.
Aday Mara
4 of 7
- School/Team: UCLA
- Position: C
- Age: 18, Freshman
- Size: 7'3", 240 lbs
The eye test on Aday Mara's movement and style hasn't been very persuasive early.
While scouts knew about his old-school game, he hasn't been dominant enough with it to make up for the lack of skills and defensive versatility the NBA currently values.
Mara has a negative-0.2 offensive box-plus minus, with 48.0 percent of his offense coming on post-ups (0.71 points per possession, 25th percentile).
Despite a giant 7'3" body, he's only drawn four fouls (8 total free-throw attempts) and grabbed 9.4 boards per 40 minutes. For mostly an interior player, Mara's reliance on finesse and a slow delivery have made it difficult to fall in love with his NBA outlook.
He's also missed 15 of 20 jump shots.
His shot-blocking rate has been strong, but the lack of foot speed remains a concern for defense. And passing flashes just aren't going to move the needle enough.
NBA teams won't reach up the board for a center who mostly plays back-to-the-basket, isn't very switchable around the perimeter and can only be used at one position. Looking ahead, it's difficult to picture an NBA coach playing this type of big in fourth quarters of tight games or playoff series.
Mark Mitchell
5 of 7
- School/Team: Duke
- Position: PF
- Age: 20, Sophomore
- Size: 6'9", 232 lbs
Despite an uneven freshman year, Mark Mitchell's physical tools and potential two-way versatility bought him time and kept NBA interest alive heading into this season. Showing sharper ball skills and shooting to pair with his 6'9", 232-pound frame, physical slashing and defense would have bumped him up boards.
But so far, he hasn't demonstrated any real progress for scouts to suddenly start thinking about him as a 2024 draft prospect.
Missing 16 of 17 threes has obviously been at the root of Mitchell's problems, particularly after scouts were hoping he'd improve on last year's 19 made threes through 35 games. On top of that, he's been disappointing from the free-throw line as well (69.6 percent).
Mitchell ultimately offers minimal creation/playmaking, and he isn't used much as a post player or roll man. The drives and cuts just won't be enough for him to hold any offensive value at the next level.
Tyrese Proctor
6 of 7
- School/Team: Duke
- Position: PG/SG
- Age: 19, Sophomore
- Size: 6'5", 197 lbs
Tyrese Proctor's mixed freshman year concluded on a high note that led to breakout sophomore projections after an offseason's worth of preparation. The early results haven't moved the needle much for scouts, however, even if he's shown some progress with his off-ball scoring efficiency.
He's struggled to make shots against Duke's credible opponents, combining to shoot 6-of-21 in losses to Arkansas and Arizona and 4-of-12 in a win over now unranked Michigan State.
He hasn't answered the big questions that lingered from last year. Can he put enough pressure on the rim to operate as a primary ball-handler? And is he the dangerous shooter that a guard would need to be to compensate for that limited burst off the dribble?
In eight games this season, he's recorded just six made field goals around the basket (half court), and he's at 32.4 percent on 4.3 three-point attempts per game, nearly identical numbers to last year.
Regardless of whether Proctor turns things around, he still possesses a mix of spot-up shooting (44.4 percent) and passing IQ (36 assists, eight turnovers) that's appealing for a connector role. But without the ability to consistently beat defenders, create without a screen or hit dribble jumpers, visions of a 6'5" lead guard are fading fast. And that's going to make him less attractive in the lottery range, where scouts were thinking he'd climb when he arrived at Duke for season No. 2.
He's now dealing with an injury that could cost him time and chances to build rhythm heading into conference play.
D.J. Wagner
7 of 7
- School/Team: Kentucky
- Position: PG/SG
- Age: 18, Freshman
- Size: 6'4", 192 lbs
Big games against Marshall and St. Joseph's haven't saved D.J. Wagner from underwhelming NBA scouts. They've cooled on his NBA outlook since preseason, as concerns have risen about his shooting and reliance on hard line drives for a score-first guard lacking vertical pop.
He picked a bad game to struggle mightily around the basket, when he shot 1-of-12 in a heavily scouted matchup against Kansas. While his ability to shake with quick-dribble moves and attack gaps creates rim pressure and opportunities, he has to work overly hard to finish without much explosion. And he's missed all eight of his runner/floater attempts.
With Wagner just 3-of-13 on dribble jumpers and an ugly 6-of-29 in spot-up situations, questions have emerged about his fit at the next level, specifically whether he'll be efficient enough as a high-usage on-ball weapon or if he's useful at all off the ball.
He hasn't been written off, however. There is still potential NBA value tied to his ball-handling and advantage creation from the point of attack. Wager seems to possess enough skill and professionalism to find a niche as a scoring combo. Scouts just aren't seeing a future, starting lead guard worth taking in the lottery, a range where his name was seemingly always presumed to land while it sat near the top of recruiting rankings.
A solid assist-to-turnover ratio so far hasn't made it easier for scouts to look past Wagner's shotmaking percentages and suspect physical tools and athletic ability.
Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports, Sports-Reference.com and accurate entering Friday's games unless otherwise noted.
