9 Biggest Fantasy Football Regrets from 2023 NFL Season
The 2023 fantasy football regular season has come to an end in most leagues, making this an ideal time to look back at the campaign and highlight some of the biggest regrets, missteps and mistakes managers made during it.
Just about every fantasy manager—even those who go on to win their league's championship—can benefit from a potentially painful glance in the rear-view, as these disappointments can be turned into lessons for the 2024 season and beyond.
With that in mind, here are nine of the biggest fantasy football regrets from the 2023 NFL season.
Fantasy points, rankings and ADP information are based on FantasyPros.com PPR data.
Putting Too Much Stock Into Late-Season Surges
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There were a handful of players who entered 2023 on the heels of some sizzling showings near the end of the previous campaign. This led to a plenty of preseason buzz and inflated ADPs, but nearly all of them have failed to build on those explosive performances and immediately regressed.
Cam Akers is the perfect example of why fantasy managers should take a late-season surge with a grain of salt. Akers went on an absolute tear over the final three games of the 2022 campaign—345 yards and three touchdowns on 63 totes while playing out the string during a lost Los Angeles Rams season—but he had only 29 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries in the season-opener before falling out of favor and getting traded. He went on to muster just 138 yards and a score across 38 carries for the Minnesota Vikings prior to suffering a season-ending Achilles rupture in early November.
Jerry Jeudy also fits the bill here. The Denver Broncos wideout had three top-15 finishes (including a No. 2 and No. 3 showing) over the final five weeks of what was an abysmal 2022 season for his club. Jeudy has since cracked the top 30 at his position just once, and that was a mere No. 29 finish in Week 5.
Managers should have learned this painful lesson from Rashaad Penny last year. The then-Seattle Seahawks running back went off to close out the 2021 season, amassing four top-10 finishes over the final five games. In 2022, Penny had just one finish inside the top-36 before getting shut down for the year with a broken fibula after five games.
Underrating Brock Purdy
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Brock Purdy has made a career out of proving doubters wrong. It's going quite well for the San Francisco 49ers quarterback too, given he's shaken off a Mr. Irrelevant designation as the final pick in the 2022 draft to become a legitimate MVP candidate in 2023. It's rather surprising that Purdy was so underestimated by managers going into the season, especially after such an impressive end to his rookie year.
Purdy never finished outside the top 18 once he became San Francisco's full-time starter in Week 14 last season. He had a pair of top-10 finishes in the final two games, including a then career-best No. 5 placement in the finale, while overseeing an offense that ranked No. 5 in yardage and No. 6 in scoring.
Even after Trey Lance was traded and the way became completely clear for him to become the unquestioned No. 1 QB in the Bay Area, Purdy was still just the No. 19 QB taken during drafts and No. 155 overall in terms of ADP this year. He's greatly outperformed his draft slot in both fantasy and real life, with Purdy now boasting the second-best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook to earn the league's MVP award while ranking No. 5 among QBs and No. 6 overall in fantasy points produced.
With Purdy posting just one finish outside the top six since San Francisco's Week 9 bye, it's clear he's one of the league's top signal-callers and should finally begin getting selected at a commensurate spot during 2024 fantasy drafts.
Believing in Atlanta's Skill-Position Talent
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For the third time in as many seasons, the Atlanta Falcons used a top-10 draft pick on a skill-position player. Despite the heavy investment in No. 8 overall pick Bijan Robinson (as well as 2022 No. 8 selection Drake London and 2021 No. 4 pick Kyle Pitts), the squad has been a massive disappointment for fantasy purposes.
Robinson was considered by many to be the best prospect at his position since Saquon Barkley, but unlike the New York Giants star's impressive debut, he's off to rather middling start to his NFL career. He's averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game, a mark that ranks No. 14 among running backs. While his overall production of 189 points puts him up to No. 7 at the position and No. 41 overall, he's not living up to his billing as the No. 4 RB off the board and No. 8 overall player.
London, the first WR taken in a deep 2022 class, hasn't been living up to his potential either. While there was some hope he would turn things around based on his No. 66 ADP, he's posted a lowly 145.4 points this year, ranking just No. 33 among WRs and No. 90 overall. Pitts is faring even worse, as he was the No. 6 TE taken and had an ADP of No. 59 overall but ranks a mere No. 14 at the position and No. 142 overall.
Until Atlanta finds a competent franchise quarterback to lead this offense, the Falcons' trio of first-round talents should be avoided at what have been consistently overvalued ADPs.
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Trusting Jonathan Taylor
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Jonathan Taylor had myriad warning signs surrounding him this offseason, but fantasy managers still believed the Indianapolis Colts running back would make a tangible impact in 2023. He was the No. 18 running back off the board and No. 47 overall player drafted, but he hasn't come close to living up to that billing.
Taylor began 2023 both injured and embroiled in a contract dispute. His placement on the PUP list meant he would miss at least four games, and his holdout lasted until he signed a three-year, $42 million extension in early October. When he finally did return to the field in Week 5, Taylor struggled to match the production that temporary starter Zack Moss was providing Indianapolis.
It wasn't until Week 7 that Taylor would notch a top-20 finish, and while he had a No. 7 and a No. 9 finish during a five-game stretch between Weeks 7 and 12, he's once again on the shelf with an injury. Taylor has now missed 12 games since being crowned the league's rushing champion in 2021.
Considering Taylor is just the No. 35 scorer at his position (well behind Moss, who was the No. 67 RB in drafts but is currently No. 20 in points scored) with a fairly bleak outlook for the fantasy playoffs, taking the Colts star with a relatively early pick was a poor decision.
Avoiding Alvin Kamara
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Alvin Kamara's turbulent 2023 offseason had a real impact on his fantasy draft status. It was clear that the New Orleans Saints running back would be handed down some sort of punishment for his role in a 2022 altercation at a Las Vegas night club, but it wasn't until early August that the league doled out a three-game suspension. With the Saints also drafting Kendre Miller and signing reigning rushing touchdown leader Jamaal Williams, it seemed possible that the offense could begin to phase out the dynamic playmaker during his absence.
This uncertainty surrounding Kamara led to him clocking a meager ADP of No. 58 overall and becoming just the No. 22 running back off the board. These fears were unfounded, however, as Kamara has re-established himself as one of fantasy's most productive players. He's been averaging 20.2 points per game since his Week 4 return, a mark that ranks in the top 10 overall and trails just Christian McCaffrey for the most at the RB spot.
Kamara is the No. 5 RB overall right now and should climb further over the final weeks of the season. He's had a double-digit point total and hasn't finished outside the top 20 in any game he's been active for yet. It's clear the Saints aren't looking elsewhere for backfield production, especially with Miller (RB No. 75) and Williams (RB No. 70) both disappointing.
Failing to Predict Keenan Allen's Bounce-Back Year
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Keenan Allen entered 2023 on the heels of one of his worst NFL seasons. The Los Angeles Chargers star wideout declined during his age-30 campaign, playing in just 10 games and securing just 66 receptions for 752 yards and four touchdowns while missing the Pro Bowl for the first time in a half-decade.
Fantasy managers took note of this regression and largely avoided Allen early in their drafts, as he was the No. 19 receiver off the board on average. That wound up being a costly mistake as Allen has turned back the clock and is having a resurgent campaign.
Through the first 14 weeks of the season, Allen has put up a whopping 278.9 fantasy points. That ranks him No. 6 overall in points scored, with only Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb putting up more points at the receiver spot. While the Bolts are languishing through a tough campaign, Allen has shown he still has plenty left in the tank and is clearly the preferred target for quarterback Justin Herbert.
If Allen can stay healthy and continue producing at a high level over the final few weeks of the season, he'll once again be one of the first receivers off the board during 2024 drafts.
Passing on Dolphins RBs
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The Miami Dolphins had plenty of hype going into 2023 as an offensive team on the rise thanks to their many weapons out wide, but managers largely stayed away from the squad's running back corps during the early rounds of their drafts. This was clearly a mistake, as both De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert have gone on to become two of fantasy's most defining players this season.
Mostert rates among the most consistent talents at the RB position. He's averaging 17.9 points per game heading into Week 14 and trails only Christian McCaffrey for most overall points by a RB. He's posted a double-digit fantasy output in all but two games this season and has four top-eight finishes under his belt, including a No. 1 overall showing in Week 6.
It's been quite a rise for a player who was the 41st RB drafted on average. If it wasn't for the ascent of Achane (the preseason No. 40 RB), Mostert would likely be contesting McCaffrey for the top slot at the position. Regardless, the veteran is still shining despite having one of the most dynamic young prospects in the league pushing him for touches.
The only thing that has been able to slow Achane this year is injuries. The back finally started logging significant touches in Week 3 and went on a tear during a historic three-game stretch that saw him log a trio of top-five finishes and put up a whopping 99.8 fantasy points before landing on the IR with a knee issue. The first-year sensation seems to finally be healthy again and ready to finish strong after posting another top-three finish in Week 13.
While the Dolphins' passing game is also firing on all cylinders with Tyreek Hill (fantasy's No. 1 WR and No. 2 overall point-producer) leading the way, the team's running backs have been a true surprise this year and would go much, much higher in a re-do of the 2023 draft.
Targeting the Wrong Texans
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The Houston Texans weren't expected to be much of a factor in fantasy football this year. The team was coming off an abysmal three-year stretch and set to start an unproven rookie in C.J. Stroud under center. The receiving corps was filled with inconsistent and unproven talent, and only running back Dameon Pierce—one of the few bright spots for the 2022 Texans—was generating any hype. That quickly changed when Stroud proved to be a pro-ready prospect who immediately transformed this organization's fortunes while crafting Houston's aerial attack into one of the league's best almost instantaneously.
Stroud was the No. 24 quarterback in terms of ADP, but the sensational rookie is currently No. 8 in points scored at the position, narrowly trailing an established superstar in Patrick Mahomes (QB ADP 1) and slightly ahead of another in Justin Herbert (QB ADP 6).
Nico Collins had been a fantasy sleeper in previous seasons, but was only the No. 58 receiver off the board during drafts. He's now the No. 12 scoring WR, ranking slightly ahead of even more unheralded Texans teammate in Tank Dell, who had an ADP of just No. 232 overall but ranks No. 23 at the receiver position despite not playing the last two games due to a season-ending injury.
Houston has even produced a consistent tight end in Dalton Schultz. While he started slow, he went on to have six finishes inside the top eight during a seven-game run between Weeks 4 and 11. Schultz has fallen off again while dealing with injury, but he still rates as the No. 13 TE this season, ranking him above a player drafted 57 spots ahead in Kyle Pitts.
Despite the buzz, Pierce has been one of the few disappointing Texans this season. He's failed to live up to his No. 17 RB ADP billing, ranking a meager No. 50 at the position and getting outperformed by backup Devin Singletary, who was the 48th back off the board on average but is currently No. 33 in points scored among RBs.
Expect Stroud and the Houston receiving corps to be far more coveted in 2024 than they were going into this season, while Pierce will drop following his disappointing sophomore campaign.
Drafting Justin Jefferson No. 1 Overall
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One of the biggest debates during the offseason was whether Christian McCaffrey or Justin Jefferson should be the first overall pick. These two superstars were 1A and 1B on most big boards and ultimately had an ADP of 1.5, but those who elected to go with the Minnesota Vikings wideout at the top of the draft were burned badly.
Jefferson managed to participate in just four full games before going down for an extended stretch with a hamstring injury in Week 5. While he was faring decently well before the ailment—notching four consecutive top-10 finishes—he wasn't exactly putting up No. 1 overall numbers and failed to finish better than No. 5 at his position in any of those four weeks.
Managers who still managed to stay afloat despite losing their lineup's centerpiece were hoping to get a boost from Jefferson's return in the fantasy season finale. His Week 14 comeback was short lived, however, as he caught just two of three passes thrown his way before exiting in the second quarter with a chest injury. It remains to be seen how much, if any, time Jefferson will miss with this latest issue, but regardless there aren't enough minutes left for him to live up to his initial billing as a game-changing fantasy piece for 2023.
Given McCaffrey has been the No. 1 RB and No. 3 overall point-producer in fantasy this season (Jefferson ranks No. 46 among WRs and No. 134 overall), it's been clear that the San Francisco 49ers star was the right call for managers at No. 1.
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