NFL 2023 MVP Odds: Tips on the Favorites and Best Values for Week 13
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts remains the favorite to be named this year's Most Valuable Player. Following an epic finish against the Buffalo Bills in Week 12, it's hard to argue against keeping him atop the list for a second straight week.
While Hurts didn't have a flawless game against Buffalo, he closed it with two fourth-quarter touchdown passes and a walk-off touchdown run in overtime.
it certainly helps that Hurts' Eagles have the league's best record at 10-1, and the MVP appears to be his award to lose. However, it's still a tight race, and plenty could happen over the final six weeks of the season.
Let's take a look at the MVP picture and some wagering advice entering Week 13.
Find the latest NFL MVP odds at DraftKings.
NFL MVP Favorites Entering Week 13
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Jalen Hurts +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
Patrick Mahomes +350
Lamar Jackson +400
Dak Prescott +750
Tua Tagovailoa +900
Brock Purdy +1500
Christian McCaffrey +1600
C.J. Stroud +1800
Trevor Lawrence +3000
Josh Allen +4500
Don't Discount Patrick Mahomes Among Favorites
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Last Monday, Hurts and the Eagles bested Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in Kansas City. That won't be lost on MVP voters, and it's part of the reason why Hurts is such an overwhelming favorite.
However, with Hurts' odds now close to even, fans can get a little more value by targeting Mahomes—and despite Kansas City's up and down offense, he shouldn't be discounted.
Mahomes is still on pace for 4,508 passing yards and 32 touchdown passes. Given the Chiefs' lack of reliable receiving weapons not named Travis Kelce—we've all seen the drops—that's impressive. Kansas City is still in the hunt for the AFC's No. 1 seed, and if they get it, Mahomes will be given most of the credit.
We're not saying this to take away from what Hurts has accomplished, and while he threw his 11th interception of the season in Week 12, he played a spectacular game. From a value standpoint, though, there's a lot to like about Mahomes.
We could see a significant shift after Week 13, where Hurts will face the surging San Francisco 49ers and Mahomes will battle the inconsistent Green Bay Packers.
If Hurts has a mistake-filled game in a loss to San Francisco and Mahomes' budding connection with Rahsee Rice continues to grow this week, it wouldn't be a shock to see Mahomes back on top of the favorites list.
Beware of Dak Prescott at Current Odds
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Dak Prescott's odds have jumped from +1500 to +750 over the past week following his latest four-touchdown outing. He's now had three of them in 2023, and he has the Dallas Cowboys rolling at home.
Statistically, Prescott is producing MVP-caliber numbers—he's thrown for 2,935 yards with 23 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. The problem is that he's largely feasted on lesser teams, a fact that won't be lost on voters.
Dallas has played exactly two teams that are over .500, and they've lost to both of them. The Cowboys have also been far less potent on the road, where they hold a 3-3 record.
For Prescott to fully enter the MVP conversation, he'll have to start beating playoff-caliber teams and performing well outside of Arlington. He'll have opportunities to do that, as three of Dallas' final six games are on the road and five of them are currently sitting above .500.
If Prescott continues to produce gaudy numbers and beats the Seattle Seahawks, Eagles, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions down the stretch, he could sneak in and win the MVP.
However, taking a flier on Prescott was a lot more enticing a week ago than it is right now.
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Take a Flier on Brock Purdy for Value Now
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49ers quarterback Brock Purdy continues to be a bit of an MVP sleeper, and San Francisco's elite skill group is a big reason why. The argument against Purdy is that he's simply taking advantage of playmakers like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk.
It's not an unfair argument, and it's why McCaffrey is worth a flier at +1600—if any of the top QBs slip up, McCaffrey could sneak in. However, Purdy still represents a tremendous value at +1400.
Last week, we highlighted Purdy's value at +1500, suggesting that it might be the last chance to really target him as a sleeper. With a matchup against Hurts and the Eagles looming, it's now really last call.
If the 49ers prevail and Purdy plays well, his odds will jump. He still leads the league in completion percentage (70.2), yards per attempt (9.4), passer rating (112.3) and QBR (75.6). he's already beaten Prescott head-to-head, and if he wins against Hurts, it'll be huge.
Purdy will also get a chance to face Lamar Jackson in Week 16, so there's a very real chance that he finishes the season as the league's highest-rated passer and with wins over three of the other top favorites.
If you believe in Purdy and the 49ers, buy in now.
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