NFL 2023 MVP Odds: Tips on the Favorites and Best Values for Week 12
The 2023 NFL MVP race saw both interesting and unfortunate developments in Week 11. Lamar Jackson had another strong performance, Jalen Hurts outlasted Patrick Mahomes in a head-to-head matchup, and one potential MVP candidate exited the race early.
The Cincinnati Bengals announced last Friday that Joe Burrow will miss the remainder of the season with a wrist injury.
Hurts remains the top favorite for the second consecutive week, and given the Philadelphia Eagles' league-best 9-1 record, that's not surprising.
Is Hurts poised to run away with the NFL's top individual award? Where can fans find value among the favorites? Let's dive into the MVP picture entering Week 12.
Find the latest NFL MVP odds at DraftKings.
NFL MVP Favorites Entering Week 12
1 of 4
Jalen Hurts +250 (bet $100 to win $250)
Lamar Jackson +350
Patrick Mahomes +400
Tua Tagovailoa +500
Brock Purdy +1500
Dak Prescott +1500
C.J. Stroud +1800
Christian McCaffrey +2200
Josh Allen +3500
Jared Goff +3500
Favor Lamar Jackson over Jalen Hurts
2 of 4
Among the top favorites, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson provides a little more value than Hurts.
On an individual level, Hurts hasn't been as efficient as he was in 2022. Yes, he just beat Mahomes, but he threw another interception on Monday night and had another fumble, though this one wasn't lost.
Hurts has now thrown nine interceptions, fumbled five times and committed 12 turnovers. He had just six interceptions and eight turnovers all of last season. His passer rating is down from 101.5 to 94.8, and he's averaging more than a yard less per rush.
Jackson has thrown 12 touchdowns with five interceptions, holds a 100.1 passer rating and has run for 535 yards and five touchdowns.
The biggest advantage that Hurts has right now is the league's best record. However, the Kansas City Chiefs' loss on Monday handed Baltimore the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and if the Ravens finish with the conference's best record, it will thrust Jackson further into the spotlight.
Working against Jackson is the ankle injury suffered by star tight end Mark Andrews—an injury that will likely keep him out the rest of the season.
However, Baltimore finally has a quality collection of wide receivers to go with a solid backup tight end in Isaiah Likely and an improved passing game under coordinator Todd Monken. Baltimore can endure, and if Jackson delivers the AFC's top seed without Andrews, it'll be another positive mark on his MVP resume.
Don't Overvalue Josh Allen's Bounce-Back Performance
3 of 4
Last week, we suggested avoiding Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen from here on out. We're sticking with that suggestion, even though Allen had a bounce-back game against the New York Jets.
Playing for interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady, Allen finished 20-of-32 for 275 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. He also scrambled for 15 yards.
While Brady may be able to get Allen back on the right track, the damage has been done. Allen might lead the NFL with 22 touchdown passes, but he also leads the league with 12 interceptions—he's actually tied with Sam Howell. He tossed another interception against the Jets, and it's hard to call a player with 15 turnovers in 10 games "most valuable."
Also, Allen has a daunting schedule upcoming. Beating an imploding Jets team at home isn't the same thing as beating the Eagles or the Chiefs—Buffalo's next two opponents—on the road.
Allen's MVP odds are the same as they were a week ago, and there's a reason for that. A win over New York shouldn't and doesn't move the needle.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
It May Be Last Call for Purdy, Stroud as Value Plays
4 of 4
Fans looking to back MVP long shots have two prime options to consider in Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud.
Stroud, the Houston Texans rookie star, had a three-interception game in Week 11 but won and saw his odds shift from +2500 to +1800. It's clear that as long as Stroud keeps playing well and picking up wins, he's going to trend closer to the top of the favorites list.
Purdy's odds went from +2000 to +1500 following the San Francisco 49ers' win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 23-year-old was nearly flawless in that game, finishing with a perfect 158.3 passer rating.
Through 11 weeks, Purdy ranks first in passer rating (115.1), completion percentage (70.2), touchdown percentage (6.5), yards per attempt (9.5), air yards per attempt (10.2), yards per completion (13.8) and QBR (77.0).
While Purdy might not rip off highlight-reel runs like Jackson or Hurts, he's the league's most efficient passer right now. The argument against Purdy is that he's a product of Kyle Shanahan's offense and San Francisco's elite supporting cast.
"There's a lot of weapons there. He's going to take it to the right place," general manager John Lynch told KNBR's Murph and Mac (h/t David Bonilla of 49ers Webzone).
However, faulting a quarterback for taking advantage of a great situation is silly. As is the case with Stroud, Purdy's odds will only shorten if the wins keep coming.
If you believe in the rookie phenom or the second-year star, now's the time to buy in.
Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
