Top 50 NBA Player Rankings: Only 1 Star Better Than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
For a while now, the NBA has churned out a relatively stagnant group of players competing for the illustrious title of league MVP.
Nikola Jokić and Joel Embiid are going to engage in a ferocious head-to-head competition as the league's premier centers. LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Luka Dončić, Giannis Antetokounmpo, James Harden, Jayson Tatum and the rest of the traditional big names will inevitably factor into the conversation.
This season, however, some new names are set to enter the fray.
Anthony Edwards is ascending to a new level of stardom in a follow-up to his postseason excellence. De'Aaron Fox is trying to lead the Sacramento Kings into contention. Tyrese Haliburton is orchestrating a historic offense for the Indiana Pacers. Tyrese Maxey is joining Embiid in the celestial realm for the Philadelphia 76ers.
Most significantly, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is leaving little doubt he's that dude for the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the numbers bear out his surge toward true greatness.
It's those numbers that will serve as the judge and jury here in this first edition of the top 50 player rankings based on RPR MVP score (more on that below). Reputation is irrelevant, and heroics in previous seasons could not matter less. Only impact in 2023-24 comes into play.
Methodology
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As explained in full on Sports Math Network, which also shows how successful the metric has been in predicting the MVP race over the last decade, RPR MVP looks at a player's individual impact and boils it down to a single number.
Everything hinges on Rolling Player Rating (RPR), which shows how a player has fared over his previous 10 games by using a schedule-adjusted version of the game score metric to provide a reasonable snapshot of on-court contributions.
From there, five components are calculated:
- True peak (a player's highest RPR score of the season)
- 10-game peak (the average of a player's 10 highest RPR scores)
- Sum (the sum of a player's RPR scores)
- Average (the average of a player's scores)
- Team success (the relevant team's SRS, or simple rating system, mark for the season, which is calculated via weighted average if a player has contributed to multiple teams)
A player's RPR MVP score is calculated by summing the Z-scores in each of the five categories, thus accounting for position relative to the pack in each component.
Players aren't eligible until they've hit the 10-game threshold (sorry, Jamal Murray) and can lose ground for a variety of reasons, from not having consistent top-end performances to playing on lackluster teams to not having the requisite volume to challenge other standouts.
It is worth noting that defense is a bit undervalued by this metric, which both hurts the Association's Defensive Player of the Year favorites and aids some of the league's leading traffic cones.
It's also difficult to account for plays that don't lead to box-score contributions, and some players benefit from meaningless stats accrued in garbage-time situations, though the latter tends to be less relevant as the sample size grows.
In other words, RPR MVP isn't perfect. No all-in-one metric ever will be. But based on its historical accuracy in predicting the MVP race, it provides a great player-ranking baseline.
50. DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls: 7.611 RPR MVP Score
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 42
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 39
The man seemingly tasked with keeping the mid-range game alive in today's NBA is doing more of the same in 2023-24—just with a bit less volume as he settles for deeper jumpers and attacks the basket less frequently.
DeMar DeRozan is still taking 21.4 percent of his shots from between 10 and 16 feet, as well as 28.9 percent of his shots from even deeper two-point territory, and he's connecting on those shots at 39.7 and 37.0 percent clips, respectively.
If those numbers normalize to his career averages (44.7 and 40.2), he'll push closer to matching last year's 24.5 points per game while getting the Chicago Bulls off the schneid.
Honorable Mentions: Desmond Bane, Spencer Dinwiddie, Aaron Gordon, Zach LaVine, Brook Lopez, De'Anthony Melton, Austin Reaves, Myles Turner, Derrick White, Jalen Williams
49. Jrue Holiday, Boston Celtics: 7.665
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 37
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 42
Jrue Holiday has taken more of a tertiary role than the one he filled with the Milwaukee Bucks over the last three seasons, but the new Boston Celtics point guard has still played high-quality basketball for the ever-dangerous C's.
Though he likely won't get much All-Star discussion while averaging 12.2 points, 7.2 rebounds and 5.1 assists, he's excelled within his role by avoiding turnovers, setting up his talented teammates with aplomb and, as usual, dedicating himself to the defensive end of the floor.
Since Boston has the NBA's No. 1 SRS with room to spare, Holiday gets a lot of credit in these rankings for operating in such a capacity on, arguably, the league's best team.
48. Lauri Markkanen, Utah Jazz: 7.803
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 32
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 34
Were it not for a hamstring injury that has limited him to 15 appearances in his second season with the Utah Jazz, Lauri Markkanen would be pushing toward a top-20 placement.
The 26-year-old has continued to thrive as an all-around scoring weapon who can take advantage of most every matchup.
His defensive ability, or lack thereof, leaves plenty to be desired, but his silky jumper, scoring instincts and controlled aggression on the offensive end are already helping confirm that his 2022-23 All-Star selection was a harbinger of more success.
47. Fred VanVleet, Houston Rockets: 8.049
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 59
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 57
Transitioning from the Toronto Raptors to the Houston Rockets hasn't been an issue for Fred VanVleet.
Though he doesn't operate with as much of a green light, he's counterbalanced the scoring dip by thriving as a pass-first point guard averaging a stellar 9.1 assists and 1.6 turnovers.
VanVleet's veteran presence has also helped propel the Rockets up the Western Conference standings as he's created easy looks for his younger teammates and served as a strong point-of-attack defender who eases the responsibilities of his colleagues, allowing them to preserve even more energy for the more glamorous end.
46. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves: 8.098
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 62
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 79
Rudy Gobert may be less involved on offense than he has been since his first three NBA seasons, but he doesn't need to put up big scoring figures to be effective alongside Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and the rest of a high-powered Minnesota Timberwolves offense.
Instead, the three-time Defensive Player of the Year has reminded the world of his incredible point-preventing prowess, emerging as an early favorite to claim the prestigious award for a fourth time.
Gobert has done his best Vitruvian Man impression in the early stages of his second year with the Wolves, flashing his long arms so effectively that he appears to have at least a couple of extra limbs helping him swat 2.4 shots per game and deter plenty more looks.
From a pure value perspective, he deserves better than the No. 46 placement. Unfortunately for him, the formula can't quite grasp the true extent of his defensive excellence.
45. Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic: 8.223
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 40
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 35
Reigning Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero has taken significant strides during his follow-up campaign, upping his efficiency levels rather significantly by improving from a 42.7/29.8/73.8 slash line to 48.1/44.3/66.9.
In addition to playing more disciplined defense, he has been increasingly judicious in calling his own number and more involved than ever as a primary distributor. That combination is working wonders for an Orlando Magic squad that surged up the Eastern Conference standings with nine straight wins before dropping a Dec. 2 road game to the Brooklyn Nets.
44. LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets: 8.235
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 48
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 38
Were it not for a sprain in his right ankle that has kept him out of the lineup since logging 15 minutes against the Orlando Magic on Nov. 26, LaMelo Ball would rank significantly higher.
The dynamic guard is averaging a stellar 24.7 points, 5.5 rebounds and 8.2 assists while shooting 44.3 percent from the field and 38.8 percent from beyond the arc.
Only 16 players have peaked higher during the 2023-24 season, per RPR MVP, and Ball is also within the top 20 in the other non-volume-dependent components.
Playing in just 15 games for a 6-12 Charlotte Hornets outfit is all that's dragging him down out of All-Star territory.
43. Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic: 8.314
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 52
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 65
Franz Wagner has left little doubt that his sophomore breakout wasn't the least bit fluky.
Even without his three-point stroke reaching prior levels, the forward's combination of smoothness and explosion has allowed him to create easy looks within a more well-rounded Orlando Magic offense—an offense so egalitarian that it's prevented the two leading figures from having the requisite touches to rise even higher in these rankings.
During Orlando's nine-game winning streak, Wagner averaged an impressive 22.9 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.4 assists while shooting 53.1 percent from the field. If he can improve upon his 32.7 percent three-point clip, he won't be done rising well above the preseason expectations.
42. D'Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers: 8.385
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: Unranked
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: Unranked
Who saw this coming?
D'Angelo Russell's raw numbers don't look too improved from the ones he posted last year while splitting time between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Lakers, but he's played ridiculously efficient basketball while maintaining a similar level of involvement.
Not only has he nearly maintained a true shooting percentage in the 60s, but he's also improved his assist and turnover percentages from 27.4 and 15.1 to 32.8 and 11.2, respectively.
Even if he's still a relative non-factor on defense, Russell has been such a dynamic threat alongside Anthony Davis and LeBron James that he's looked the part of a perfectly tuned third fiddle on a team capable of making a deep postseason run.
41. Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets: 8.539
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 71
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 58
This is the Michael Porter Jr. the Denver Nuggets have been waiting to see.
Though his three-point percentage has dipped into the high 30s, he's been a fearless sniper who can capably imitate Kevin Durant on a number of offensive possessions.
He's also been more aggressive attacking the basket, he's finally asserting himself as a force on the glass, and he's been more engaged on defense while spending more time guarding opposing 4s—a far more natural fit for his skill set.
Porter is clearly capable of doing more, but he's already leaving little doubt that he's rising up the Association's individual hierarchy during his age-25 season.
40. Jonas Valančiūnas, New Orleans Pelicans: 8.734
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: Unranked
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: Unranked
Jonas Valančiūnas won't blow anyone away with a single-game effort. He's averaged only 14.2 points, 9.1 rebounds and 2.3 assists for the New Orleans Pelicans.
However, he never coughs up the ball, only takes the right shots, thrives within the flow of the offense, plays great defense (arguably better than ever before) and never misses time.
The big man has been a mainstay in the NOLA rotation, and his consistency has helped the Western Conference playoff threat improve by 6.1 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor.
The lion's share of that growth comes on the scoring side, where his hard screens, offensive rebounding, physicality around the basket and ability to stretch out a defense pan out nicely alongside the many Bayou-based scoring threats.
39. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers: 8.778
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 41
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 46
The third-season breakout is happening before our very eyes.
Rather than expanding his shooting range beyond the arc, Evan Mobley has instead taken far more of his shots from around the basket and cut back on the inaccurate jumpers. That's allowed him to score more efficiently than ever and help move the ball intelligently for a talented Cleveland Cavaliers offense, all without expending too much of the energy he needs to fill myriad defensive roles.
Aside from the lack of theatrics and histrionics, it's not hard to see more Draymond Green than ever in Mobley's expanding-by-constricting game.
38. Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors: 8.82
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 24
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 32
Pascal Siakam may currently make more headlines for his omnipresence in trade rumors than for his play between the lines. But make no mistake: The Toronto Raptors forward is playing excellent basketball amid the many potential off-court distractions that link him to any number of opposing squads on a seemingly daily basis.
Siakam's three-point stroke has all but disappeared (19.8 percent on 4.1 attempts per game), and he's ceded more touches to Scottie Barnes than in previous seasons.
However, his spin moves and ball-handling ability as a 6'8" power forward still translate into 20.0 points, 7.2 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game.
37. Julius Randle, New York Knicks: 8.958
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 55
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 45
Julius Randle can be a frustrating watch.
He's clearly an impressive offensive talent for the New York Knicks who can bull his way through the defense without breaking a sweat. He's a gifted passer, especially for a physical big man with a 6'8", 250-pound frame. He can knock down plenty of difficult jumpers, including his patented lefty leaners as he falls away toward the baseline after gaining the tiniest smidge of separation.
However, he also posts the occasional stinker, largely due to his proclivity to settle for and force deep jumpers he has no business taking, especially during a season in which he's connected at a 27.9 percent clip from outside the arc.
And when those add up...well, you saw what happened in last year's playoffs.
36. Mikal Bridges, Brooklyn Nets: 9.339
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 25
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 26
With Cam Thomas, Cameron Johnson, Lonnie Walker IV, Spencer Dinwiddie, Nic Claxton and Dorian Finney-Smith joining Mikal Bridges in double figures, the Brooklyn Nets' scoring philosophy has been impressively egalitarian in the early stages of the season.
But that doesn't mean Bridges hasn't thrived as a do-everything force who can put up big point totals (see: two games with at least 40 points), pepper in spot-up jumpers, serve as a secondary distributor and play relatively mistake-free basketball on a nightly basis.
He has posted his worst three-point percentage (35.7) since his rookie season with the Phoenix Suns back in 2018-19 (33.5).
If he can get going from beyond the rainbow, he'll have a good chance to average a career-best points-per-game tally and possibly build on his current mark of 22.8 points per contest.
35. Dejounte Murray, Atlanta Hawks: 9.409
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 47
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 44
Everything is clicking on offense for Dejounte Murray, allowing him to settle in as a capable second star alongside Trae Young for the surprisingly competitive Atlanta Hawks.
The perimeter jumper? That's falling at a career-best 39.3 percent rate as Murray takes a career-high 5.9 deep attempts per game.
The takeover scoring ability? He is averaging 20.4 points, pushing him over the 20-points-per-game threshold for the third straight season, and he's also put up 41-, 32- and 30-point outings when the Hawks have needed him to contribute more as a scorer.
The defense? That's where Murray could get back to his previous levels, especially because Atlanta needs him to serve as a capable stopper against bigger guards and ball-handling wings.
34. Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat: 9.466
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 12
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 13
"We stand right where we don't want to be, which is very mediocre," Jimmy Butler told reporters after a defeat at the hands of the Tyrese Haliburton-less Indiana Pacers. "Not good, not bad, just mediocre."
The Miami Heat have clearly underwhelmed following last year's five-game loss in the NBA Finals, which isn't helping Butler's case during an early stretch in which he's missed four of his team's first 20 contests.
He hasn't put up his traditional numbers, either. He's less accurate from two-point territory (largely because he's settling for more mid-range jumpers), not quite as involved as a passer and struggling to impose his will on the defensive end.
Butler is also so damn good at the whole basketball thing that he's still pushing toward a top-30 spot in spite of all the factors working against him.
33. Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers: 9.468
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 13
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 19
Kawhi Leonard just hasn't seemed quite like the peak version of Kawhi Leonard thus far.
He's had to work harder for his looks. He's generated less separation off the bounce. The strength inherent in his game has felt more laborious.
But is this a sign that the 32-year-old with a lengthy injury history is firmly past his prime? Or is it the byproduct of him not receiving as many maintenance days and preserving himself a bit more on the court alongside Paul George and James Harden?
We'll find out as the season progresses, and the Los Angeles Clippers are certainly hoping it's the latter.
32. Kyrie Irving, Dallas Mavericks: 9.483
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 25
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 22
Kyrie Irving struggled in the true lead role against the Memphis Grizzlies on Dec. 1, shooting just 3-of-15 from the field and missing all five of his three-point tries during a brutal loss to the Western Conference bottom-feeders with Luka Dončić out of action.
Considering that was only his 15th game of the year, it didn't do wonders for his ability to stick in the top 25 of these rankings.
Prior to that putrid shooting display, which was (at least partially) due to a previously unknown foot injury, Irving had been averaging 24.6 points on a 46.9/39.0/90.7 slash line and thriving as the second star benefitting from Dončić's heliocentricity.
Chances are good that Irving will only ascend higher as the season progresses and those negative-outlier performances comprise a smaller part of his résumé.
31. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics: 9.513
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 19
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 17
Jaylen Brown has had outings that justify the preseason rankings and leave little doubt he was worth the $304 million contract extension he signed to remain with the Boston Celtics.
But he's also had a few disastrous performances, and his importance to the Beantown residents and inability to dial things back has sometimes dragged the team down. In November, for example, he submitted 5-of-16, 5-of-17 and 6-of-22 shooting lines within a four-game stretch. Those resulted in losses to the Charlotte Hornets and Orlando Magic, as well as a narrow victory over the floundering Memphis Grizzlies.
The good has more than outweighed the bad, but more consistency is paramount if Brown is to move back into the top 20 of the rankings.
30. Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors: 9.61
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 53
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 59
One of the NBA's most underrated players, Scottie Barnes is doing everything in his power to leave little doubt that he's closer to the All-Star conversation than not, even if he began the year outside the top 50 in both sets of B/R's preseason rankings.
Averaging 19.6 points, 9.1 rebounds and 5.5 assists is impressive enough, but even more so when he's drilled 38.2 percent of his 5.1 three-point tries per game and taken on such an expanded offensive role while still keeping his turnovers in check.
Oh, and Barnes has been one of the best defensive presences in the entire league. According to Dunks & Three's defensive EPM, only Jalen Suggs, Chet Holmgren and Evan Mobley have been more effective on defense, though none of them have done so while playing as many minutes as the Raptors' do-everything standout.
29. Paul George, Los Angeles Clippers: 9.646
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 18
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 24
The Los Angeles Clippers can point to many culprits when portioning out the blame for their slow start to the 2023-24 season, but Paul George should be immune to any and all finger-pointing.
The veteran forward has excelled within his role, maximizing his touches and showing off fine-tuned decision-making while still saving energy to augment his instincts on the defensive end.
Dunks & Three's estimated plus-minus (EPM) metric has him sitting in the 93rd percentile on offense and 82nd percentile on defense.
If you're still judging George by his past struggles in the postseason, it's time to move on.
28. Tobias Harris, Philadelphia 76ers: 9.757
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 100
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 94
Tobias Harris is solidifying his status as one of the NBA's most underrated players virtually every time he laces up his sneakers. Just look at those preseason rankings, which felt far more reasonable at the time given his across-the-board declines last season.
Less reliant on the three-ball than he's been in years, the 31-year-old is instead exemplifying the idea of playing within a scheme. Surrounded by Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, as well as a smorgasbord of other talented role players, he's thrived as the tertiary option who can capitalize on mismatches, attack the glass, swing the ball around the key and do just about everything asked of him by Philadelphia 76ers head coach Nick Nurse.
All of that said, Harris is a bit overrated by this placement for a trio of reasons: His defensive woes don't show up as significantly in this particular metric, he benefits from volume since he's played in every Philly game thus far, and the Sixers—bolstered even more by the two leading contributors—have been so excellent that they're uplifting the team component of RPR MVP pretty significantly.
27. Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns: 9.803
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 9
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 11
Congratulations to Devin Booker for earning the most misleading ranking of the bunch.
Injuries have limited the dynamic guard to just 11 appearances in 2023-24, which is a downright shame when he's coupling his tremendous scoring ability with the best passing display of his career to average 27.9 points, 5.8 rebounds and 8.4 assists while slashing 47.2/39.7/93.3.
As Michael Pina of The Ringer wrote, "In his first season since 2019-20 without Chris Paul running the show, Phoenix's franchise player has comfortably assumed a lead playmaking role that has catapulted him into the conversation for best point guard in the league."
Booker's individual components of the RPR MVP score all leave him on the cusp of the top 10. However, he checks in at No. 210 in the volume component due to his limited time on the court, knocking him all the way down the rankings to his current spot.
26. Kristaps Porziņģis, Boston Celtics: 9.818
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 43
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 49
Were it not for the calf injury that knocked him out of the lineup against the Orlando Magic on Nov. 24, Kristaps Porziņģis would be knocking on the door of the top 20 even more firmly.
During his first season with the Boston Celtics, the 7-footer has performed admirably, blending in seamlessly alongside Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Though his three-point success hasn't carried over from the nation's capital, Porziņģis is thriving on the interior, displaying great chemistry with Brown in the two-man game and flat-out thriving on the defensive end. His 0.7 steals and 1.7 blocks per game fail to showcase the true extent of the havoc he's wreaked on opposing half-court sets.
25. Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans: 9.838
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 28
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 33
This is what the New Orleans Pelicans fans have been eagerly awaiting.
Zion Williamson has played in 18 of the team's first 22 outings, and he's looked utterly dominant most of the time he's been on the hardwood in uniform.
Some teams have been able to limit his impact by packing the paint and forcing him to kick the ball out on his aggressive basket attacks, but he has been able to solve almost every scheme while surrounded by an immensely talented group of teammates.
His numbers have declined to 22.7 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game while he shoots 56.9 percent from the field.
Yes. Declined.
24. Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets: 9.846
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 82
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 91
If you're not already on board with Alperen Şengün, go ahead and change that by watching him suit up for the Houston Rockets on any given night. He'll likely shine because that's what he's done day in and day out during his breakout campaign.
"More of the offense is being run through the 21-year-old this season, and it looks great on both player and team," Dan Favale wrote for Bleacher Report in mid-November. "Şengün continues to set up teammates from all over the court. He can grab and go, facilitate out of the post and from the elbows, survey or attack from the middle of the floor, fling passes out of the short roll, toss entry lobs from the wing—the list goes on and on, potentially without end."
The list also seems to grow longer by the day as he continues to become the go-to option on offense, dominating opponents in every feasible way.
If the three-point stroke clicks, watch out.
23. Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers: 10.006
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 20
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 14
Thanks to a lackluster performance from three-point territory (34.4 percent on 8.3 attempts per game), Donovan Mitchell hasn't quite been able to match his scoring exploits from his inaugural season with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Fortunately for his squad, he's improved in every other area, effectively staving off a bigger decline in the rankings than he'd have otherwise experienced while missing a handful of games for an underperforming outfit.
Mitchell is averaging career-best marks in rebounds per game (5.3), turnovers per game (2.4), steals per game (2.1), blocks per game (0.5) and defensive box plus/minus (1.4) while challenging his personal best in assists per game (5.2), submitting a well-rounded portfolio that helps explain how the Cavs have been a staggering 11.3 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor.
22. Brandon Ingram, New Orleans Pelicans: 10.116
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 29
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 31
What happens when Brandon Ingram starts to connect on his three-pointers?
He's a 36.0 percent marksman throughout his career and coming off a season in which he drilled 39.0 percent of his deep looks, but only 30.5 percent of his 4.3 tries per game have fallen thus far.
Ingram has made up for his perimeter woes by drilling just about everything else and remaining highly involved as a secondary—and sometimes primary—distributing hub for the New Orleans Pelicans, averaging 5.3 dimes and just 2.6 turnovers.
Though his shot-creating ability gives the NOLA offense a new element when possessions break down, he's also better than ever at making a quieter impact alongside an increasingly effective host of teammates.
The 26-year-old hasn't made the All-Star squad since his Most Improved Player efforts in 2019-20, but he's doing everything in his power—other than making treys—to change that.
21. Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder: 10.221
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 73
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 60
Chet Holmgren is playing such phenomenal basketball that he might make more incoming rookies consider taking redshirt seasons.
Well, probably not. But the Oklahoma City Thunder is clearly benefitting from his year learning on the sidelines and adjusting to the rigorous lifestyle of an NBA athlete as he completed his rehabilitation.
He's looked advanced beyond his 21 years from the moment he stepped foot on the hardcourt in a meaningful game, and he's only improved leaps and bounds since.
Dunks & Three's defensive EPM metric has Holmgren trailing only Jalen Suggs among all NBA athletes. He's averaging 17.6 points while slashing 53.1/39.5/86.5 and avoiding the typical turnover pitfalls that ensnare so many first-year contributors. He's comfortable taking control of the OKC offense, even in the biggest moments with the lights shining brightest.
Holmgren is already playing like an All-Star and the clear-cut Rookie of the Year favorite, Victor Wembanyama hype be damned. (Wemby sits 85 spots lower in the RPR MVP standings and is still the rookie runner-up.) Scarily enough, he's only tapping into the full extent of his powers.
20. Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat: 10.413
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 27
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 23
"Shoot the ball. I feel like that's been my evolution," Bam Adebayo explained, per The Athletic's William Guillory. "It sounds very, very simple, but I came into this league as a defender. To this point, I've never taken 27 shots (in a game). I feel like the progression's been, 'Shoot the ball, worry about everything else later.'"
That came after the big man took 27 shots in a shorthanded loss to the Milwaukee Bucks on Nov. 28, keeping things close even without Jimmy Butler until the opposition pulled away in the fourth quarter.
It was his fourth appearance in 2023-24 with at least 20 field-goal attempts after he posted only five such games last year and four the season before. His level of aggression is growing, especially as he sees that his willingness to fire away has had a beneficial impact on a Miami Heat squad struggling to provide a positive encore to last year's Finals appearance.
The 26-year-old is averaging a career-best 22.3 points through 16 appearances, but that number might feel low a few months from now, much less a few years from now.
19. Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks: 11.204
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 36
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 27
Stats against the moribund Detroit Pistons should be taken with a heaping pile of salt these days, but Jalen Brunson's Nov. 30 performance against the Motor City residents spoke volumes about how much he means to the New York Knicks.
Not only did he score 42 points on 24 shots by drilling seven triples and earning a parade of shots from the charity stripe, but he also kept his teammates heavily involved with eight assists to only a single turnover. Though that was rather easily Brunson's marquee performance to date, outshining even his 45-spot in an early-November loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, it still showcased the true extent of his offensive firepower.
Brunson has also held his own on defense, particularly when he's able to step into a driving lane and sacrifice his body to draw a charge. As he continues to get comfortable with Immanuel Quickley and the other young contributors in the Big Apple, he'll only look smoother making rotations and using his 6'2" frame on that end, too.
18. Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks: 11.303
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 14
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 12
Damian Lillard has been unable to reach his Portland Trail Blazers levels for the Milwaukee Bucks thus far.
His 25.5 points per game are his second-worst mark since the start of the 2016-17 campaign, and the same is nearly true of his 6.9 assists per contest. He's connected on a meager 33.6 percent of his 8.4 three-point attempts per game. All in all, his box plus/minus (2.8) is well below his career average (4.8) and pales in comparison to last year's 7.1.
Then again, is any of this really surprising as he goes from serving as the lone star of a Rip City squad that never put enough talent around him to operating alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Malik Beasley and the rest of a loaded Brewtown roster?
Lillard as an individual and the Bucks as a whole are already trending in the right direction, and they have a long way to go before they start playing for their championship lives.
17. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves: 11.463
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 15
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 10
Anthony Edwards has arrived.
Fresh off his masterful performance in the 2022-23 postseason, the Georgia product has taken his game to another level in his fourth NBA go-round.
He's averaging a career-best 26.2 points while showcasing more behind-the-arc marksmanship than ever (37.7 percent) and earning his way to the charity stripe even more frequently. (His jump from 75.6 to 86.4 percent at the line shouldn't be taken for granted, either.) He's averaging a career-best 5.0 assists coupled with a declining turnover rate. He's more engaged on defense without a fouling uptick, no longer looking lost in off-ball scenarios and instead serving as a pest in all situations.
Similar to the De'Aaron Fox-Domantas Sabonis conundrum coming soon in these rankings, he'd be even higher if he'd avoided a hip injury that limited him against the Oklahoma City Thunder and kept him out of each of the last two matchups. He'd certainly be above the next player in the countdown considering they share a uniform and Edwards has outperformed him in each of the non-volume components of RPR MVP.
16. Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves: 11.532
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 23
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 28
Karl-Anthony Towns has long been a tremendous talent on offense, displaying shooting touch and shot-creation ability not typically found in a 7'0", 248-pound frame. But he's drawn plenty of criticism as well, usually because of his defensive deficiencies and his inability to rise to the moment in the postseason.
The 28-year-old hasn't yet had a chance to dispel the playoff narrative, though he's certainly working toward another opportunity to do so by virtue of the Minnesota Timberwolves' Western Conference-leading 15-4 record.
Defense is another story.
Towns currently sits in the 89th percentile in Dunks & Threes' defensive EPM, undoubtedly aided by a lineup shift that has him spending more time than ever against opposing power forwards. Of course, it also doesn't hurt that whereas 55.3 percent of his minutes came alongside Rudy Gobert last year, 65.7 percent have this season.
15. De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings: 11.727
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 17
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 16
If you're surprised to see De'Aaron Fox just inside the top 15, regardless of his spot in the B/R preseason rankings, then rest assured that we're in the same boat.
He's been masterful for the Sacramento Kings in the early going, averaging 30.3 points, 6.4 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 1.6 steals and just 2.3 turnovers while slashing 47.9/35.7/72.8. In many ways, he seems determined to leave little doubt that he has to at least be included in conversations about the league's best floor generals.
But Fox has played in just 14 of Sacramento's 19 contests, and his team has overperformed its way to an 11-8 record (Pythagorean wins, based on points scored and allowed, give a 9-10 expectation). The No. 20 ranking in SRS isn't doing him any favors in the team component of RPR MVP.
Fox currently ranks Nos. 11 (true peak), 7 (10-game peak) and 7 (average game) in the individual metric components. But the team factor and a No. 63 spot in the volume element keep him further from the top 10 than you'd otherwise expect.
14. Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings: 11.766
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 35
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 29
De'Aaron Fox has been the superior member of the Sacramento Kings on a per-game basis, but Domantas Sabonis has yet to sit out. He's played 35.1 minutes per game over his 19 appearances, devastating opponents with his combination of physicality and finesse en route to averaging 19.0 points, 11.9 rebounds and 7.1 assists.
Sabonis doesn't often fire away from downtown, but he's hit 40.0 percent of his triples, enough to keep defenders from sagging off and deterring his relentless attacks toward the interior of the half-court set.
More effort is sorely needed on the defensive end, which is the primary reason for some seriously unfavorable on/off splits—especially contrasted against Fox's—but the Kings can at least take solace in the positive net rating when the two stars share the floor.
13. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors: 12.245
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 6
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 3
The Golden State Warriors have struggled to stay afloat through their first 20 games, blowing multiple massive leads and failing to look like the dynastic force of old as few of the next-wave contributors have consistently risen to the occasion and staved off the decline of Klay Thompson.
Stephen Curry, aside from his two absences, has been the exception.
His playmaking has trended in the wrong direction, at least partially because it's been hard to trust his struggling teammates to the same extent, but he's pouring in 29.1 points per game while shooting 47.6 percent from the field, 43.1 percent from deep and 93.2 percent at the stripe. Turn to basically any advanced metric, and he still looks exemplary.
Since his injury-shortened 2019-20 campaign, Curry has posted RPR MVP scores of 15.547 in 2020-21, 12.915 in 2021-22 and 12.673 in 2022-23. His current mark (12.245) would continue the slow decline, but we all know he's capable of keeping this level of play going and gaining ground on other members of the NBA's elites if they fall off their current paces.
12. Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers: 12.434
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 10
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 15
Anthony Davis has long been one of the NBA's most dangerous weapons when fully healthy, and that's been the case in 2023-24 as he's played in 20 of the Los Angeles Lakers' first 21 games.
Davis has been an absolute terror on defense, averaging a league-leading 2.8 blocks and 1.1 steals for good measure. He's effectively shutting down his area of the court and rotating to help from the weak side with aplomb and calculated ferocity. He's also stopped relying on his perimeter jumper to the same extent and is playing smarter offensive basketball for a Lakers squad that can feature scoring upside from many different spots.
With the unibrowed menace on the floor, Los Angeles' net rating has jumped by 9.4 points per 100 possessions, continuing the trend that began in earnest last year when Davis' body was in working order. Apparently, it's easy to build a successful scheme around a big man who can catch anything in traffic and finish acrobatically on one end while showcasing his pterodactyl wingspan and quick-twitch movement on the other.
11. Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks: 13.2
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 30
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 25
Trae Young is continuing to take heliocentricity to the extreme.
The 6'1" guard is propping up the Atlanta Hawks with 27.1 points and 10.7 assists per contest, and he's doing so while cutting his turnovers to below four per game for the first time since his rookie season and shooting the ball with more consistency from the perimeter.
But his ridiculous involvement on offense stands out most.
For the fifth season in a row, Young is posting an assist percentage (43.2) north of 40 and a usage rate (31.1) north of 30. Only seven other players have done so even once over that five-year stretch, and just LeBron James (twice), Nikola Jokić (twice) and Luka Dončić (five times) have submitted multiple qualified seasons.
Most importantly, Young's ball-dominant ways are translating into quality team results. Atlanta has underperformed with a 9-10 record, but it sits at No. 15 in SRS and has been a distinctly positive outfit with the Oklahoma product logging minutes.
10. Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks: 13.388
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 3
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 2
If the RPR MVP metric didn't include a team component, then Luka Dončić would rise up to No. 8 in the purely individual rankings. It does, though.
Dallas has an 11-8 record, but that's rather misleading—at least according to the underlying numbers. A 23rd-ranked defense has prevented the Mavs from outscoring their opponents by a significant margin, and they've played an unexpectedly weak opening slate.
The combination of the 18th-ranked margin of victory and 25th-ranked strength of schedule leaves Dallas at No. 21 in SRS despite the winning record. In turn, that is knocking Dončić down a few pegs despite his individual heroics.
At this point, those heroics are pretty much expected.
Dončić is averaging a sensational 31.4 points, 8.4 rebounds and 8.4 assists while slashing 49.0/38.8/76.1, which was pretty much forecasted aside from the elevated three-point percentage.
9. LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers: 13.415
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 7
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 9
LeBron James may finally be beginning to show his age.
The 38-year-old is averaging 4.5 fewer points, 0.7 fewer rebounds and 0.4 fewer assists than he did during the 2022-23 season. He's not getting to the foul line as frequently and is playing a smidge more passively on the offensive end.
Of course, he's still sitting at No. 9 in these rankings because even with those declines baked in, he's doing things the vast majority of the Association can't even dream about.
His per-game line has fallen to 24.4 points, 7.6 rebounds and 6.4 assists—a trio of averages only nine players have matched during a qualified season in the history of the league (including Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid this year). He's more laser-focused on defense than he's been in a few years. The Lakers are outscoring opponents by 5.7 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor but are posting a putrid minus-14.0 net rating when he sits.
King James, indeed.
8. Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers: 13.625
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 51
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 47
If you're looking for some early insight into the Most Improved Player race, look no further than Tyrese Maxey.
Maxey has averaged a scorching 27.0 points, 6.7 assists and 4.6 rebounds per game for the Philadelphia 76ers and has shown no negative effects from the remarkably heavy burden placed on him during the 2023-24 campaign. He's playing a league-high 38.4 minutes per game but still seems to make fewer bad decisions than players who spend half that amount of time on the floor, and he hasn't trended in the wrong direction on defense while faced with so much more offensive responsibility.
The Sixers also haven't skipped too many beats following the departure of James Harden, largely because of Maxey's emergence as a bona fide superstar.
Last season, Maxey posted an 8.168 RPR MVP score, leaving him sandwiched between Jaren Jackson Jr. and Nic Claxton for the NBA's 50th-best mark. This year, he's on the cusp of joining the top five by throwing up sensational individual numbers for a dangerous Philly squad.
7. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics: 13.971
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 5
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 5
Even though Jayson Tatum already enjoys a lofty spot in this individual hierarchy, the best may be yet to come.
The Duke product has had some uncharacteristic turnover struggles, and he's abandoned some of the basket-attacking aggression that helped him earn 8.4 trips per game to the free-throw stripe last year. Much of the blame can probably be assigned to the massive lineup changes that shook up the Beantown crew during the offseason, as the arrivals of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis were significant enough to necessitate some growing pains.
Tatum's talent level has been readily apparent all the while, though. He's still throwing up 27.6 points, 8.9 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game on 49.9/35.7/79.2 shooting.
It's a testament to his massive talent level and seemingly inevitable yearly dalliances with MVP hardware that the focus has to rest on how much better he can still get.
6. Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns: 14.066
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 8
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 7
Prior to the current campaign, the highest scoring averages from players in their age-35 seasons stood as follows:
- 1988-89 Alex English: 26.5 points per game
- 2019-20 LeBron James: 25.3 points per game
- 1969-70 Elgin Baylor: 24.0 points per game
- 1998-99 Karl Malone: 23.8 points per game
- 1982-83 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 21.8 points per game
- 2013-14 Dirk Nowitzki: 21.7 points per game
- 1972-73 Lenny Wilkens: 20.5 points per game
- 1991-92 Larry Bird: 20.2 points per game
No one else has been north of 20.
Well, Stephen Curry would be the new record-setter with his 29.1 points per contest, except Kevin Durant is one-upping him by posting 31.0. Better still, he's racking up those buckets while slashing 51.2/49.4/89.6, good for a 63.6 true shooting percentage that's superior to the marks of everyone on the above list (Abdul-Jabbar was the highest at 61.9).
Oh, and lest we forget: Durant is doing all this with an Achilles rupture in his medical history, an injury that has doomed nearly every career before his.
5. Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers: 14.609
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 33
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 21
Tyrese Haliburton is the primary reason why the Indiana Pacers have posed problems for one defense after another. He's devastatingly effective in transition, seemingly never makes mistakes while always playing in a cool, calm and collected fashion and serves as the linchpin of everything Rick Carlisle's top-ranked offense tries to do.
Haliburton isn't just averaging 26.9 points and a league-leading 11.9 assists per game. He's doing so while coming tantalizingly close to the 50/40/90 club by connecting on 52.1 percent of his field-goal attempts, 44.7 percent of his 8.9 three-pointers per game and 88.1 percent of his tries from the charity stripe. If that's still not enough, he's shouldering this Atlassian burden while coughing the ball up only 2.4 times per game.
Indiana role players have been increasingly willing to cut toward the hoop with intensity. The ball rarely stops moving within the half-court set. And everything—from the efficiency to the willingness to try so damn hard—stems from Haliburton's historic display of passing vision and execution.
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks: 14.898
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 2
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 1
It's time to pick at some nits. After all, Giannis Antetokounmpo was a justifiable preseason choice at No. 1 by the B/R community, and he checks in here at "only" No. 4.
So how can he rise up the standings? That's a more salient exercise than belaboring the consistent excellence of his all-around game.
First, he could cut back on the turnovers. Antetokounmpo is coughing up the ball a career-worst 4.2 times per game, and it's not a function of increased offensive involvement, since his turnover percentage is higher than it's been since 2014-15. His assist percentage and usage rate are also both down.
Second, the seven-time All-Star could continue to improve his shot profile by cutting back on the three-pointers even more since he's shooting only 22.9 percent from deep. Making more trips to the stripe would also help, as he's back in the single digits for attempts per game after consecutive seasons north of the two-digit threshold.
Most significantly, the Milwaukee Bucks could ascend even closer to the top of the league's pecking order as they get more comfortable with Damian Lillard operating at the point. Antetokounmpo would rise one spot higher if no team component factored into the RPR MVP calculation.
3. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers: 16.287
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 4
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 6
Kudos to Joel Embiid for posting a strong encore to his MVP-winning 2022-23 efforts.
He's leading the Association in scoring for a third consecutive season by continuing to play his patented brand of aggressive basketball, drawing fouls with remarkable frequency and doing just enough damage from the perimeter to give defenders no recourse whatsoever. It also helps that he's better than ever at passing out of double-teams and is serving as more of a playmaking hub with James Harden out of the picture.
And, of course, he's remained one of the league's deadliest defensive presences.
The biggest issue, albeit only for the purpose of these rankings since his consistent dominance is exemplary, is that Embiid's true peak hasn't risen quite as high as those of the two men ranking above him. Last year, he scored 40-plus points in 19.7 percent of his outings and 50-plus in 4.5 percent. This year, those percentages stand at 6.3 and 0.0, respectively.
(An important note: RPR MVP traditionally gives Embiid plenty of credit. His score of 16.414 outpaced everyone last season as the metric successfully predicted the outcome of the award race.)
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder: 17.408
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 11
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 8
All hail Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has ascended into superduperstar territory while orchestrating the Oklahoma City Thunder's rise into true ahead-of-schedule contention.
With a 13-6 record, OKC trails only the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference standings, and it has the league's No. 3 SRS. While Chet Holmgren (No. 21 in these rankings), Jalen Williams (No. 52), Isaiah Joe (No. 91) and Luguentz Dort (No. 99) deserve plenty of credit for their efforts, SGA has been the engine, as well as the conductor and engineer.
He's averaged 29.9 points, 6.3 assists, 5.7 rebounds, a league-best 2.4 steals and 0.9 blocks while turning the ball over just 2.2 times per contest and slashing 53.8/36.5/93.9. He's played some of the league's best point-of-attack defense. He's mastered change-of-pace dribbling and can get to any spot on the court at a moment's notice. He has a counter to everything.
And he's only 25 years old.
Gilgeous-Alexander finished 48th in RPR MVP two years ago. Last season, he elevated to No. 6 while making his first All-NBA appearance.
Now, he's coming for the crown.
1. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets: 19.153
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B/R Staff Preseason Ranking: No. 1
B/R Community Preseason Ranking: No. 4
Nikola Jokić has continued to do more of what he's made commonplace over the last few seasons. He can amble around the half-court set before throwing up a seemingly wild shot that somehow always finds nylon. He picks apart defenses with precise passes and capitalizes on every matchup that favors his plodding game—which is just about every one.
At this point, the NBA landscape doesn't have a single consistent counter to Jokić's game, particularly now that he's more comfortable going into takeover mode and more infrequently committing careless turnovers.
He's averaging 29.0 points, 12.8 rebounds and 9.8 assists, and he's even picking up steam as the season progresses. Maybe those numbers will decline when Jamal Murray is fully reintegrated into the lineup. But on the flip side, Jokić's scoring efficiency should only rise when he's no longer subjected to quite as much of the defensive attention.
Simply put, he's the best player in the world. Right now, as evidenced by the gap between him and everyone else in this scoring system, no one else is even challenging him.
All stats, unless otherwise indicated, courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Sports Math Network and accurate entering Tuesday's games.
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