Norris Trophy Top 5: Who's Leading the Early Race as NHL's Top Defenseman?
The 2023-24 NHL season is only a month-and-a-half old, but it is never too early to start debating individual awards and how those races are taking shape.
Today we take a look at the Norris Trophy and the top five players who are standing out in that race so far as the league's top overall defenseman.
It is important to keep in mind that the Norris Trophy is not just about defense. It is about complete, all-around play and the impact a defenseman can make in that game. That means, yes, offense is a significant part of that component.
So let's take a look at five players who are doing their best to put themselves at the forefront of the Norris discussion.
Honorable Mentions
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Adam Fox, New York Rangers: Fox is one of the best players in the league and an elite defenseman. He is also off to an incredible start for the Rangers. The only thing keeping him out of the top-five at this point is that he has only played 10 games so far. By the end of the season he will be in the discussion, if not a favorite.
Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning: He is not quite as dominant as he was during his peak, but he is still a top-tier player that is having an excellent year, especially offensively with 19 points in 17 games.
Charlie McAvoy, Boston Bruins: An elite defensive player and averaging a point-per-game so far this season. Like Fox, he will almost certainly be in the discussion by the end of the season but has only played in 11 games so far due to a suspension.
Evan Bouchard, Edmonton Oilers: The Oilers' season has not gone according to plan so far, but Bouchard is quietly putting together a huge year. His 62 percent expected goals share during 5-on-5 play is second best in the league, while his 15 points in 15 games (as of Friday) are eighth in the NHL.
Dougie Hamilton, New Jersey Devils: The offensive numbers and underlying numbers are as great as they always are. He is getting crushed early on by the Devils' sub-par goaltending.
5. Shea Theodore, Vegas Golden Knights
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Theodore was one of Vegas' initial expansion draft steals, and he has become a core player for the Golden Knights from day one of their existence. He has also become one of the best all-around defenders in the NHL that can excel at both ends of the ice.
He has received some Norris consideration in the past, finishing sixth and fifth in the voting during the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons. He might have had an argument to be included in the discussion a year ago as well had he not been limited to just 55 games. He was a force for the Golden Knights during the playoffs on their way to a Stanley Cup championship.
Entering play on Saturday he is not only one of the top scoring defenders in the NHL with 16 points (four goals, 12 assists) in 17 games, he is also posting outstanding underlying numbers and been one of the best possession-driving defenders in the league.
The Golden Knights are averaging 3.27 expected goals per 60 minutes when he is on the ice (11th best in the NHL) and own a 55 percent expected goal share.
He has been the best defensemen and one of the best players on one of the league's best teams.
4. Miro Heiskanen, Dallas Stars
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Heiskanen's offensive numbers are not quite jumping off the page just yet, with only one goal and 10 assists through the Stars' first 15 games entering play Saturday.
But he has enough of a track record, and the Stars have enough talent around him, to make you believe those numbers will eventually jump. What stands out about Heiskanen's game so far is that he has been pretty dominant defensively for the Stars.
There have been 135 defenseman in the NHL this season to have logged at least 200 minutes of 5-on-5 ice-time. Out of that group Heiskanen ranks fourth in expected goals against (just 1.96 per 60 minutes) and first in expected goal share (62.4 percent).
He is still helping to generate points offensively, but is simply not getting much luck when it comes to his point production during even-strength play. The Stars are shooting at just 8 percent as a team when he is on the ice during 5-on-5 play. There is room for that number to go up, especially given the offensive talent the Stars have.
When that does change, Heiskanen's scoring should jump back up again and when combined with his defensive impacts he will be a legitimate Norris front-runner.
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3. Erik Karlsson, Pittsburgh Penguins
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Karlsson is the reigning Norris Trophy winner after becoming the first defenseman to eclipse the 100-point mark in 30 years last season as a member of the San Jose Sharks. It was his third time winning the award, and if he can manage to win a fourth it would put him among some very elite company in NHL history.
The only four-time winners are Bobby Orr (eight), Doug Harvey (seven), Nicklas Lidstrom (seven) and Ray Bourque (five).
Early on, Karlsson is doing quite a bit with his new team (the Pittsburgh Penguins) to play his way back into the discussion.
Especially over the past few weeks.
Entering the weekend Karlsson is averaging more than a point-per-game for the Penguins with 16 points (five goals, 11 assists) in 15 games, and has helped form one of the league's best defense pairings alongside Marcus Pettersson.
When Karlsson has been on the ice during 5-on-5 play, the Penguins are controlling 58 percent of the expected goals (10th best in the league) and significantly tilting the ice in their favor. Karlsson's defensive game is always the focus of scrutiny, especially last season when he finished as a minus player. But Karlssson's individual numbers were crushed in San Jose due to the rebuilding team around him, as well as the fact he was always on the ice for empty net goals against. This season his overall defensive numbers have taken a jump in terms of goals, shots and chances against, while he has not really seen his offense drop all that much.
He remains an elite player and one of the best all-around defensemen in hockey.
2. Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
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It would simply not be a Norris Trophy discussion right now—or at any point in this era—without including Makar near the top of the list.
He is going to be a mainstay in this debate for the next decade and is one of the best overall players in the league.
Offensively, he is having another dominant start to the season with 21 points (four goals, 17 assists) in 15 games. But for as dynamic as his offense is, and for as exciting as his style of play can be, he is also every bit as outstanding away from the puck and on the defensive side of the ice. He does everything well and has almost no weaknesses to his game.
The Avalanche have a better than 56 percent share of total shot attempts, expected goals, scoring chances, high-danger scoring chances and goals when Makar is on the ice during 5-on-5 play, while he is also a game-changer on the team's power play.
For as good as Nathan MacKinnon and the Avalanche's forwards can be, it is the defense and Makar that really make that team run. Makar is arguably the best player on the roster and one of the top overall players in the league. He is also just entering his prime years in the league and really starting to reach his full potential.
He already has one Norris Trophy in his trophy case. He will win more. Perhaps as soon as this season.
1. Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks
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You should already start preparing yourselves for the debate that is going to dominate the Norris Trophy discussion when it comes to Hughes' candidacy, because it is sure to be an absolute doozy.
Offensively, Hughes is currently the class of the NHL's defensemen.
But forget just defensemen. As of Friday, he was tied for the league lead in scoring among all players—regardless of position—with 27 points (six goals, 21 assists) in only 17 games. He has been an absolute force of a player offensively and one of the biggest reasons the Canucks have been one of the biggest surprise teams in the NHL.
Just 17 games into the season, he is only two goals away from matching his career high (eight), and is still one of the best playmaking defenders in the league.
His game has always been about playmaking, driving possession and setting up his teammates, as he has topped the 60-assist mark in each of the past two seasons.
The knock on him, as it always tends to be with offensive-minded defenders who put up big point numbers, is that his defense can be questionable. But sometimes those concerns are overstated. Very overstated. Hughes might not be the best pure shutdown defender in the league, but he is more than capable of defending, and when you combine that with his elite offensive production there is no question he is one of the most valuable defensemen in the league.
Data in this post via NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick
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