NFL Playoff Scenarios 2023-24 Week 11: Projected Matchups After Broncos Win vs. Bills

The Buffalo Bills are in serious trouble.

While there was consternation among Buffalo fans after the team went 2-3 in its previous five games with fairly ugly showings against the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the only wins, Monday's matchup at home against the struggling Denver Broncos seemed like an opportunity to get back on track.

A win also would have meant being right back in the playoff picture.

Instead, they lost 24-22 in stunning fashion on a last-second field goal. It was Wil Lutz's second chance at the field goal, as his previous miss didn't count because the Bills had 12 defenders on the field.

Considering the difficult road ahead that still features matchups against the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins, the playoffs are far from a sure thing for Buffalo at this point.

Especially since it isn't even in the current postseason picture:

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AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (7-2, first-round bye)

2. Baltimore Ravens (7-3) vs. 7. Houston Texans (5-4, tiebreaker over Cincinnati Bengals)

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3, tiebreaker over Miami Dolphins) vs. 6. Cleveland Browns (6-3)

4. Miami Dolphins (6-3) vs. 5. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3, tiebreaker over Cleveland Browns)

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NFC

1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-1, first-round bye)

2. Detroit Lions (7-2) vs. 7. Minnesota Vikings (6-4)

3. San Francisco 49ers (6-3, tiebreaker over Seattle Seahawks) vs. 6. Dallas Cowboys (6-3)

4. New Orleans Saints (5-5) vs. 5. Seattle Seahawks (6-3, tiebreaker over Dallas Cowboys)

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There are fascinating storylines across the entire AFC race with the Chiefs looking to clinch the No. 1 seed and first-round bye that comes with it as the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Baltimore Ravens trying to win a division with every team over .500, and the Jacksonville Jaguars trying to prove they can be among the league's best even after a blowout loss to the San Francisco 49ers.

Yet the race for the bottom wild-card spots stands out in the current picture.

While the Bills and Cincinnati Bengals were largely expected to be Super Bowl contenders and realistic challengers to the Chiefs' spot atop the conference, they are instead looking up at the No. 7 seed.

Buffalo is 5-5 and behind the 5-4 Bengals, who also have the tiebreaker because of a head-to-head victory.

Yet both Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are outside of the current playoff scenarios thanks to the upstart Houston Texans, which are the No. 7 seed thanks to the Broncos' victory. Houston was a combined 11-38-1 the past three seasons and was not on anyone's realistic radar at the start of the 2023 campaign.

It is now thanks to rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud.

Forget Offensive Rookie of the Year, Stroud is in the middle of the MVP race and has completed 61.6 percent of his passes for 2,626 yards, 15 touchdowns and two interceptions while adding two scores on the ground through nine games. He just led the Texans to a stunning road win over the Bengals on Sunday and did so without top receiver Nico Collins.

If the Ohio State product continues to play at such a high level, he could keep Allen and Burrow out of the playoffs.

The picture is much clearer in the NFC, as the 6-4 Minnesota Vikings have opened up some breathing room over the 4-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the race for the final wild-card spot. Someone will have to win the NFC South with the 5-5 New Orleans Saints leading the way in a division without a single team over .500, but the other six spots are starting to come into shape.

The Eagles, Detroit Lions, 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Cowboys and Vikings are all in the driver's seat for postseason spots with the outlook for the latter looking much better than it did two weeks ago thanks to the impressive play of quarterback Joshua Dobbs in place of the injured Kirk Cousins.

There may not be as much drama in the NFC as the AFC, but a postseason that featured an underdog story in Dobbs going up against powerhouses such as the Eagles, 49ers and Cowboys wouldn't lack for intrigue.