NFL Picks 2023: Early Week 11 Odds to Exploit after Final Week 10 Results
In what has been a wild 2023 NFL season, Week 10 might have provided the wildest weekend yet. On Sunday, an NFL-record five teams won on field goals as time expired. We saw a sixth on Monday, was the Denver Broncos beat the Buffalo Bills 24-22.
The Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals—a pair of AFC North foes who clashed in the 2022 playoffs—were on the losing end of two of those stunning finishes. They're set to face off to open Week 11 on Thursday night.
Below, we'll dig further into the Week 10 results, the upcoming matchups and the early-week odds we like.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Cowboys -11 at Panthers
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On Sunday, we saw what the Dallas Cowboys are capable of doing against an undermanned and ill-equipped opponent. The New York Giants came into Arlington with a third-string quarterback and without tight end Darren Waller and left with a 49-17 defeat.
CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks both topped 150 receiving yards, Dak Prescott threw four touchdown passes, and the Cowboys racked up more than 600 yards of offense.
While the 1-8 Carolina Panthers might be better than the version of New York that played on Sunday, it probably isn't by much. Rookie quarterback Bryce Young has struggled mightily this season, and the Panthers offense as a whole is underwhelming.
Carolina finished its Week 10 loss without an offensive touchdown.
While the Panthers' 13th-ranked pass defense is respectable, Carolina isn't good against the run. Expect the Cowboys to control the tempo and the clock, get its fair share of short fields and record a second consecutive blowout victory.
Also, expect this line to move further in Dallas' direction before the weekend.
Chargers -3.5 at Packers
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The Los Angeles Chargers aren't heavy favorites against the Green Bay Packers, which may be a reflection of the teams' spots in the standings. The Packers sit at 3-6, while the Chargers are 4-5.
Make no mistake, though. Los Angeles is the better team and has the more experienced quarterback. Los Angeles could easily be above .500 right now, having lost on one of those last-second field goals.
While the Chargers' 32nd-ranked pass defense is a problem, don't expect Jordan Love and the Packers to exploit it as easily as Jared Goff and the Lions just did.
Green Bay does have a solid defense, but Justin Herbert is a top-tier quarterback, even if this year's win-loss record suggests otherwise. Herbert threw for 323 yards, four touchdowns and an interception against a playoff-caliber Lions defense, and while he might not have such prolific numbers against the Packers, he should lead L.A. to a convincing victory.
And if Herbert has an off day, the Chargers can lean on Austin Ekeler and their ground game against Green Bay's 27th-ranked run defense.
Texans -4 Versus Cardinals
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The Arizona Cardinals won on a last-second field goal, giving quarterback Kyler Murray a 1-0 record on the season.
However, Arizona has just two wins this season, and Sunday's came against a very inconsistent Atlanta Falcons team. The Houston Texans have been very consistent over the past two weeks, notching comeback victories against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cincinnati Bengals.
Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has found his groove, and he's playing at a historic pace. According to Dante Koplowitz-Fleming of NFL research, Stroud just joined Cam Newton as the only rookies with 800-plus passing yards in a two-game stretch in NFL history.
Stroud is playing a fantastic brand of ball, and it's time to buy into what DeMeco Ryans is building in Houston. He has the 5-4 Texans playing at a high level, and he's helped the defense improve dramatically.
Houston has been very tough to run against, and it ranks 16th in points allowed. Arizona will have to rely on Murray, while Houston can utilize a balanced offense against a Cardinals defense that has been inefficient against the run (19th in yards per carry allowed) and the pass (21st in net yards per pass attempt allowed).
Expect the Texans to hold serve at home.
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