NFL Week 10 Picks: Breaking Down Best Value Props and Stars' Outlooks

There are a multitude of interesting player storylines to follow ahead of Week 10 of the NFL season, with some making for excellent prop bets.

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray will finally suit up for his first game of the season, and the team will also see running back James Conner return to action. New Minnesota Vikings quarterback Josh Dobbs will start a game finally having gotten to meet all his teammates and learn the team's offense. And we'll get to see what a San Francisco 49ers defense featuring Chase Young looks like.

All this and more is on the docket for Week 10. Let's break down three of the more intriguing player-centered prop bets this week.

Kyler Murray Under 225.5 Passing Yards (-125)

Michael Owens/Getty Images

LANDOVER, MARYLAND - SEPTEMBER 10: Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals looks on prior to a game between the Washington Commanders and the Arizona Cardinals at FedExField on September 10, 2023 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

It's been nearly a full calendar year since quarterback Kyler Murray last took a snap for the Arizona Cardinals, but he's set to return to the lineup on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons.

Murray returns to an offense helmed not by Kliff Kingsbury but Jonathan Gannon and to a team that has mustered a 1-8 record through the first half of the season. He will also connect for the first time with some new pass-catchers, such as rookie wide receiver Michael Wilson.

Some people may be tempted to take the over here, since Murray is returning from an ACL tear and may not be using his legs as much as he has in the past. But the Cardinals also get running back James Conner back in action this week, so he'll take some of the burden off Murray.

Though the Falcons have given up 1.9 passing touchdowns per game on average, the fifth-most in the league, they've been stingier against the pass overall, allowing just 197.1 passing yards per game on average, the 10th-fewest in the league.

Tank Dell over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

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HOUSTON, TX - NOVEMBER 05: Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell (3) celebrates after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter during the NFL game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Houston Texans on November 5, 2023 at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Houston Texans wideout Nico Collins, who leads the team with 631 yards on the season, has been ruled out for Week 10 with a calf injury.

In terms of prop bets targeting the rest of the Houston pass-catchers, you could look to Noah Brown, who had 153 yards last week. But the Week 10 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals just may see rookie Tank Dell pad his already impressive season.

Dell is the Texans' second-most-productive receiver so far this season, having racked up 454 yards on 28 receptions. He's surpassed 56.5 receiving yards four times this season, including two 100-plus-yard outings.

Against the Bengals, Dell could approach this prop with just one or two receptions; he leads the team with nine deep targets in his five full games, and he's had receptions of 20-plus yards in three games and even a 68-yard bomb in Week 3.

Jerome Ford Under 40.5 Rushing Yards (-130)

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CLEVELAND, OHIO - NOVEMBER 05: Jerome Ford #34 of the Cleveland Browns carries the ball during the first half of the game against the Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns Stadium on November 05, 2023 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)

The Cleveland Browns backfield has been tricky for fantasy managers to figure out this season; with Nick Chubb suffering a season-ending knee injury in Week 2, the Browns have relied on a committee of Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong Jr.

Ford leads the team with 425 yards (compared to 196 for Hunt and 152 for Strong) and 107 carries. But in his last couple games, he hasn't been explosive or generating many yards after contact; last week he was clearly "the guy," with 20 attempts, but he amassed just 44 yards.

Ford has topped 40.5 yards four times in eight games this season. In Week 10 he'll face a Baltimore Ravens defense that has been allowing only 91.9 rushing yards per game, ninth-best in the league.

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Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.

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