NFL Picks Week 10 Best Early Player Props to Bet Before Odds Shift
Thursday night's matchup between the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears is unlikely to excite many casual fans. The two teams have a combined three wins this season, and while we'll get a look at No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young, there won't be a ton of star power on the field.
Bears quarterback Justin Fields is doubtful, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter, meaning we're likely to see Tyson Bagent under center for Chicago for the fourth straight week.
While this might not be a potential playoff preview, fans can create a little intrigue by adding player props to the mix.
Below, you'll find our favorite Thursday night prop, along with a few others to target later in Week 10.
Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.
Bryce Young Over 31.5 Pass Attempts
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Here's a prop we feel very good about entering Thursday. Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is -135 to attempt more than 31 passes against Chicago. That's a shockingly low line, considering Young has passed for more than 31 attempts in six of his seven starts—and threw for exactly 31 in the other one.
Teams with inconsistent quarterback play often look to lean on the run, but that hasn't been much of an option for the Panthers. They've regularly fallen behind in games, and they're not getting a ton out of the run game.
As a team, Carolina has averaged just 3.9 yards per rush and 96 rushing yards per game.
The Panthers are likely to struggle on the ground on Thursday, as the Bears defense is allowing a league-low 3.3 yards per carry. Expect Carolina to lean on Young's arm early, often and throughout the Week 10 opener.
Lamar Jackson Over 210.5 Passing Yards
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The Baltimore Ravens blasted the Cleveland Cleveland Browns in a 28-3 win in the first meeting, but Cleveland has been a tough team to pass against for most of the season. The Browns rank first in passing yards allowed and second in yards per attempt allowed.
However, we like the over r (-115) for this yardage total for a couple of reasons.
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is playing at a near-MVP level right now, and the talented dual-threat has leaned a little more into the pass than he has in years past.
Jackson is completing an outstanding 71.5 percent of his passes, and while he's thrown for fewer than 210 yards in five of his nine outings, context is needed. A few of Baltimore's wins have been blowouts in which Jackson has seen little late aerial action.
Jackson torched Cleveland's vaunted defense in Round 1, throwing for 186 yards on only 19 attempts. With Deshaun Watson back under center for the Browns, Round 2 should be a little more competitive and should require enough passing from Jackson to hit the over.
Travis Etienne Jr. Over 62.5 Rushing Yards
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The San Francisco 49ers will be looking to stop a three-game losing skid when they visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. In an effort to improve a defense that has looked vulnerable over the past few weeks, defensive coordinator Steve Wilks is moving from the coach's box to the sideline.
"I think more so than anything (the move is a result of) him just wanting to be down there as our leader of the group, making adjustments on the fly," linebacker Fred Warner said, per The Athletic's Matt Barrows and David Lombardi.
With a new approach and the addition of pass-rusher Chase Young, San Francisco should have an aggressive plan for slowing Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence. To counter, expect Jacksonville to lean on running back Travis Etienne Jr. and the ground game.
Etienne is -120 to reach 63 rushing yards, a feat he's achieved in four of eight games. He should see plenty of opportunities and will have a shot at some chunk plays against a middling San Francisco run defense.
The 49ers rank 18th in yards per carry allowed and have allowed an 80-yard rusher in two of the past three games.
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Alvin Kamara Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
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As long as Alvin Kamara receiving-yard props remain low, we're inclined to hammer them. The New Orleans Saints running back has topped 35 receiving yards in four straight games. He's -115 to do it again in Week 10.
It's an attractive prop because Derek Carr regularly targets Kamara in the passing game. The 28-year-old dual threat has been targeted an average of eight times per game this season, and he's averaging seven receptions.
While the Minnesota Vikings defense has taken positive strides under new coordinator Brian Flores, it isn't a shut-down unit. Minnesota ranks 18th in net yards per pass attempt allowed, 18th in passing yards allowed and 14th in total yards allowed.
The Vikings have been strong against the run (3.7 yards per carry allowed), so expect New Orleans to augment its ground game with short passes to Kamara.
Don't expect a huge day from Kamara on the ground, but he should hit the over in receiving yards.
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