Six Telling Stats That Will Define 2nd Half of the 2023 NFL Season
Now that we're officially beyond the midway mark of the 2023 NFL season, we can try to get a feel for what's in store as teams embark on playoff runs and/or tank jobs.
Sometimes, it's fun to do that using numbers.
Here are six critical statistics from the first half of the season that should help guide us in what to expect in the second half.
+115
1 of 6
That's the Baltimore Ravens' point differential total, which leads the NFL by a margin of 35 points.
Nobody else has a scoring margin better than plus-80, and it's not as though the Ravens have been piling up on bad teams.
Baltimore has defeated the Bengals on the road and hammered the Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks at home, and its only regulation loss came on the road at the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Ravens' schedule has also been tougher than the league average, per Pro Football Reference.
They have been quietly tearing the league apart. There have been a couple blips but nothing major, and they're rolling with seven defensive takeaways and an average margin of victory of 20.3 points on their current four-game winning streak.
Baltimore is emerging as the top Super Bowl favorite in the AFC, if not all of football. With the second-half schedule being pretty soft, the Ravens are looking real good for the top seed in their conference.
24!
2 of 6
That's the total number of Patrick Mahomes passes that have been dropped in nine games. No other quarterback has had even 20 passes dropped thus far, and that drop rate of 7.4 percent ranks second to only Deshaun Watson.
Combine that with the fact that the Chiefs are tied for an AFC-high 18 turnovers, and it's easy to see why many are wondering if they'll fail to defend their Super Bowl title in 2023. Maybe champs really are cursed, as nobody has successfully repeated in the NFL since the Patriots in 2004.
The 7-2 Chiefs are still in it thanks primarily to the league's second-ranked scoring defense, but an offense that looks different than previous editions appears to be a real problem.
And in the extremely strong and deep AFC, that could mean an off-year entirely for Mahomes and Co.
24.6
3 of 6
That's the passer rating that belongs to San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy in the fourth quarter of one-score games.
In those situations, the sophomore seventh-round pick has completed just 15 of 32 passes and has zero touchdown throws to three interceptions. No regular starting quarterback with more than a dozen attempts under those circumstances has a rating as low as Purdy.
The Iowa State product has also completed just 52.9 percent of his third-down passes, a rate which ranks ahead of only Mac Jones and Geno Smith among regular starters.
It all paints a picture that suggests Mr. Irrelevant 2022 doesn't have what it takes to carry the 49ers down the stretch and on a Super Bowl run.
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133.6
4 of 6
That's the passer rating belonging to Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence on deep passing attempts, which leads all healthy starting signal-callers.
The 2021 No. 1 overall pick has five deep touchdown passes and no interceptions of 43 such attempts, which is a great onus for a Jaguars team looking to make a big leap in 2023.
Lawrence has yet to become a full-on superstar in this league, but we know the ingredients are there and he has the weapons in Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram and Travis Etienne.
It's all a big reason why the Jaguars are 6-2, and why they seem primed to run away with the AFC South and play spoiler in January.
The future is looking brighter by the week in Jacksonville.
.275
5 of 6
That's the combined winning percentage of the teams the Miami Dolphins have defeated this season, which ranks dead-last in the NFL.
Miami's losing opponents have gone a combined 14-37 (counting the Patriots twice), while the three teams the Dolphins have lost to are a combined 20-7.
It's a bad sign that they haven't hung with the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs. They've got a ton of firepower and can't be ruled out, but it'll be hard to overcome those losses from the first half of the season.
And it's hard to believe they'll fare too well against the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills in the final three weeks of the regular season, let alone in the playoffs.
49%
6 of 6
That's the average third-down conversion rate among the league's top three third-down converters, the Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles (both 50 percent exactly) and Dallas Cowboys (46.9 percent).
Nobody else is above 45 percent except the 49ers, Chiefs and Ravens, which means there's a huge correlation between third-down success and Super Bowl odds, and a reminder not to rule out those top three teams.
None of that trio have been covered yet in this exercise, so we're killing a few birds with one stone while noting that all four of last year's conference finalists ranked in the top six in this critical category.
Of course, nobody was ruling out the 8-1 Eagles anyway, but it's probably tempting to do so with the Bills and Cowboys after tough Week 9 losses. They both definitely still know how to move the ball, though, and Dallas is the only NFC team that has converted more than 45 percent of third downs and stopped opponents on more than 63 percent of their third-down attempts.
Both Dallas and Buffalo still deserve to be viewed as prime contenders.
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