NFL Week 9 Picks: Breaking Down Best Value Props and Stars' Outlooks

Week 9 of the NFL season brings with it some intruging matchups, from the first- and fourth-ranked offenses in the league, respectively, meeting in Germany in the Miami Dolphins' and Kansas City Chiefs' tilt, to the return of journeyman quarterback Taylor Heinicke as he gets the start for the Atlanta Falcons against the Minnesota Vikings.

At the halfway point of the season, we also have a better feel for how players are performing and what their tendencies are—essential when it comes to picking prop bets.

Let's break down some of the most interesting props on the table for Week 9. Two of them center on quarterbacks from those aforementioned matchups and one is an anytime touchdown that's worth your while, even as those props have proven difficult this season given historically low scoring.

Patrick Mahomes over 0.5 Interceptions (+100)

Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

DENVER, CO - OCTOBER 29: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) takes a moment on the field before a game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on October 29, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Patrick Mahomes had 12 interceptions on the entire season in 2022-23, en route to a Chiefs Super Bowl win.

Through eight games this season, Mahomes has eight interceptions. With 304 attempts, that means Mahomes is throwing a pick every 38 passes. To put that in perspective, even last season, where Mahomes' 12 interceptions were just one below his career high, he was throwing one every 54 attempts.

Strange things often happen in the NFL's Europe games, and the one between two high-powered aerial assaults in the Chiefs and the Miami Dolphins calls for a lot of yards, certainly, but also a good chance of some picks.

Vegas has more faith in Mahomes' ball security this week, with odds of him having fewer than 0.5 interceptions set at -130. Why not assume he'll keep continue his recent trend and double your money?

Taylor Heinicke over 11.5 Rushing Yards (-135)

Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - AUGUST 24: Taylor Heinicke #4 of the Atlanta Falcons is pressured by Markus Golden #54 of the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first quarter of a preseason game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on August 24, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

There were "a lot of variables" at play in the Atlanta Falcons' decision to start journeyman quarterback Taylor Heinicke over Desmond Ridder in Week 9, head coach Arthur Smith keeps insisting.

Heinicke got the nod after replacing Ridder last week against the Tennessee Titans as he was evaluated for a concussion. However, Ridder cleared the concussion protocol this week, leading to speculation that the move is performance-based as much as it is injury-based.

No matter the reason, the fact is that Heinicke will be lining up under center for the Falcons in Week 9 against the Minnesota Vikings. The veteran has been known to rely on his legs from time to time, though he has never come close to approaching his 313 rushing yards, including a 38-yard jaunt, with Washington in 2021.

Last season, Heinicke topped 11.5 rushing yards in three games. Minnesota has given up the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks (12.8 per game), so it's a good bet Heinicke will stretch those legs this week in his first start as a Falcon.

Kareem Hunt Anytime TD (+120)

Jane Gershovich/Getty Images

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - OCTOBER 29: Kareem Hunt #27 of the Cleveland Browns scores a second quarter touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on October 29, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Jane Gershovich/Getty Images)

Kareem Hunt doesn't have a significant role in the Cleveland Browns' backfield this season; though he got more touches when Jerome Ford was out injured, offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt has said the team will employ a commitee approach with Hunt, Ford and Pierre Strong Jr.

But Hunt doesn't need to be the guy to make good on this anytime touchdown prop. Hunt has found the end zone in each of his last three games. Crucially, Hunt leads the team in red-zone attempts with nine, and he's scored four touchdowns from within 20 yards, whereas Ford and Strong each only have one.

The Arizona Cardinals are giving up 1.4 rushing touchdowns per week on average, the third-most in the league.

Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.

Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).

Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.