UFC Fight Night 231: Lewis vs. Almeida Odds, Schedule, Predictions
A fan-favorite meets a rising star with Derrick Lewis taking on Jailton Almeida in a heavyweight collision to close out UFC Fight Night 231 from São Paulo, Brazil.
The featured heavyweight bout was supposed to feature Curtis Blaydes taking on the rising Brazilian, but he withdrew from the bout and Derrick Lewis stepped up. It creates a whole new dynamic as Almeida was going to have to deal with Blaydes' wrestling but will now be in for a completely different fight
The co-main event features another Brazilian who is rising through the ranks. Gabriel Bonfm has stormed onto the scene with two first-round submissions to kick off his UFC career. He'll meet 38-year-old Nicolas Dalby in the penultimate bout.
It's a card loaded with fighters who will be looking to make a statement in front of their home country. With the potential for a highlight-reel knockout in the final fight and throughout the card, it's a fight night worth tuning in for.
Here's a look at the complete card with the latest odds and predictions for the featured bouts.
Fight Card, Schedule and Odds
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Main Card (ESPN+, 9 p.m. ET)
- Jailton Almeida (-485) vs. Derrick Lewis (+370)
- Gabriel Bonfim (-625) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+455)
- Don'Tale Mayes (+170) vs. Rodrigo Nascimento (-205)
- Caio Borralho (-290) vs. Abus Magomedov (+235)
- Armen Petrosyan (-112) vs. Rodolfo Vieira (-108)
Prelims (ESPN+, 6 p.m. ET)
- Elves Brener (-218) vs. Kaynan Kruschewsky (+180)
- Rinat Fakhretdinov (-340) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (+270)
- Victor Hugo (138.5) vs. Daniel Marcos (136)
- Modestas Bukauskas (-245) vs. Vitor Petrino (-245)
- Denise Gomes (-135) vs. Angela Hill (+114)
- Montserrat Conejo (+455) vs. Eduarda Moura (-625)
- Marc Diakiese (-192) vs. Kaue Fernandes (+160)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Almeida vs. Lewis
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When it comes to heavyweights, it doesn't get much different than going from fighting Curtis Blaydes to fighting Derrick Lewis. While Blaydes' wrestling prowess would have tested Almeida's jiu-jitsu he'll now be tested by Lewis' fight-changing power.
Lewis fights tend to come with their own terms of engagement. Almeida is a savvy grappler and has earned many of his wins with his ability to drag his opponent to the mat and force a tap.
That's one way to beat Lewis. He's not all that great at getting up from a takedown or grappling from the bottom, but the road to getting him there is fraught with danger.
Even at 38 years old, Lewis is one of the most powerful punchers in the division. Marcos Rogerio de Lima found that out the hard way in his last bout. The Black Beast flattened him in just 33 seconds en route to his 14th knockout victory.
Even so, it's hard to see Lewis getting around the grappling disparity. Every second the fight is standing Lewis is capable of uncorking a fight-changing strike, but it's fair to wonder whether he's ready to fight the kind of disciplined and taxing fight he will need to upset Almeida.
Prediction: Almeida via second-round submission
Bonfim vs. Dalby
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There are some striking similarities between the co-main and main events of the evening. Both feature up-and-comers with an opportunity to impress against an opponent that just doesn't look as good on paper.
The primary difference is that Derrick Lewis is a main event-worthy name while Nicolas Dalby is a little more understated.
He also doesn't present the same power problem. Dalby actually had an unsuccessful UFC stint back in 2015 and lost his first fight after getting released the first time in 2018. Since then, he has gone 8-1 with two No Contests to work his way back to being a respectable UFC fighter.
Dalby is a rugged competitor who has never been finished in his UFC career. He also doesn't have a whole lot of stopping power himself. He only has six knockout wins in 29 career fights and is far from a submission artist.
That could pose problems as he goes against Gabriel Bonfim. The 26-year-old is a highly aggressive grappler who will look to bring the fight to Dalby. Without some power to make him think twice about how he closes the distance, it's hard to envision Dalby offering too much resistance.
He's scrappy enough take this thing to the third round, but probably not enough to force a decision.
Prediction: Bonfim via third-round submission
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