NFL Picks Week 9 Best Early Player Props to Bet Before Odds Shift
Week 8 ended on Monday night, and the 2023 NFL trade deadline passed on Tuesday. Now, it's time to forge ahead toward Week 9, which will open with the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night.
While bye weeks have returned—the Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars and San Francisco 49ers will be off—fans should have no shortage of betting options when it comes to player props.
We're here to dive into a few of our favorites for Week 9, beginning with Thursday night's matchup.
Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.
Kenny Pickett Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
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Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett is -238 (bet $238 to win $100) to have fewer than two touchdown passes on Thursday night. Those would be risky odds for most quarterbacks, but not for Pickett.
The second-year signal-caller has now started 19 games and appeared in 20. He's thrown multiple touchdowns in exactly one of them. That came against a struggling Las Vegas Raiders team in Week 3.
Could Pickett buck the trend and throw for two against the Titans? It could happen, but Tennessee has allowed an average of just one passing touchdown per game this season, so it feels unlikely.
We also have to consider that Pickett plans to start despite exiting last Sunday with a rib injury.
"Playing for sure," Pickett said, per ESPN's Brooke Pryor.
The injury could limit Pickett's effectiveness and leave him open to further injury against an aggressive Titans defensive front. There's a very real chance that Mitch Trubisky finishes the game for the second straight week, which could take Pickett passing touchdowns out of the equation entirely.
Patrick Mahomes over 26.5 Rushing Yards
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Sunday's action will kick off with a game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins in Germany.
Patrick Mahomes is -105 to rush for more than 26 yards, something he's done six times in eight games this season. Mahomes failed to hit the mark in his Week 8 loss to the Denver Broncos, but it's worth noting that he wasn't at 100 percent.
"I just started feeling bad last night. But I've bounced back pretty well in the morning," Mahomes said after the loss, per Ed Easton Jr. of Chiefs Wire. "So, just kind of trying to do whatever I can to go out there and play my best football."
Though he did suffer a hand laceration against Denver, Mahomes should be back to 100 percent against Miami. And if the Chiefs are to keep pace with an explosive Dolphins offense, they may have to lean into Mahomes' scrambling ability.
The Dolphins have tightened things up against the run in recent weeks, but Kansas City can augment its ground game by utilizing Mahomes' legs.
Alvin Kamara over 34.5 Receiving Yards
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Chicago Bears rookie Tyson Bagent appears set to make his third consecutive start in place of Justin Fields (thumb). That does lend to some blowout potential for the New Orleans Saints at home.
However, New Orleans offense has been inconsistent enough that Chicago should keep things close. This makes Alvin Kamara over 34.5 receiving yards (-115) feel like a relatively safe bet.
The Saints have struggled to run consistently, and defending the run is the one thing that Chicago's defense has done well—it has allowed just 3.3 yards per carry. Expect Derek Carr and the Saints to counter with the short-passing and screen games.
All of this favors Kamara, who has averaged 45.6 receiving yards this season, and the over. Kamara has had no fewer than 36 receiving yards in any of the last three games, and he's averaged 71 receiving yards over his last two.
Kamara has also averaged just under eight receptions in 2023, and with Chicago surrendering 6.9 yards per catch, the over is the right play.
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Dameon Pierce Under 43.5 Rushing Yards
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The Houston Texans host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday in what is probably an underrated matchup. The 3-4 Texans are still in the AFC wild-card mix, while the 3-4 Bucs still have a shot in the NFC South.
In this matchup, we like taking the under (-110) with Dameon Pierce and the rushing-yardage line. Piece has only reached 45 rushing yards in three of seven contests, and he's given up a fair bit of the workload to Devin Singletary.
Last week against a bad Carolina Panthers run defense, Pierce had 46 rushing yards, but he only carried 12 times, while Singletary logged 10 rushes.
The Buccaneers, who are allowing 3.9 yards per carry, have been much better against the run than Carolina (4.7), and last week's average (3.8) was Pierce's highest of the season. With Singletary in the mix, the under feels like the right play here.
For Pierce to hit the over, Houston will likely have to go up big early and lean on the run late. Against Tampa's sixth-ranked scoring defense, that feels highly unlikely.
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