What Is the Best Rebuilding Plan for Las Vegas Raiders After Firing Josh McDaniels?
In a stunning move, the Las Vegas Raiders fired both head coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler late Tuesday night.
"After much thought about what the Raiders need to move forward, I have decided to part ways with Josh and Dave," Raiders owner Mark Davis said in a statement. "I want to thank them both for their hard work and wish them and their families nothing but the best."
McDaniels and Davis took over a playoff roster and went 9-16 over the past season-and-a-half. Monday night's decisive loss to the Detroit Lions and a lack of trade-deadline activity may have been the final straws.
Linebackers coach Antonio Pierce is taking over as the interim head coach, while assistant general manager Champ Kelly takes over Ziegler's role, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. They'll now work to navigate the remainder of the 2023 season.
The big question is what comes next.
Given the Raiders' recent lack of cohesion and direction, a hard reset is likely in order. Here, we'll dive into the top priorities for this new reality and the best options for what lies ahead.
Navigate the Rest of 2023
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Before the Raiders can make any further sweeping changes, they have to get through the final nine games of the 2023 season. While at 3-5, a playoff push is still technically possible, Las Vegas' priorities must shift from winning to evaluation, beginning at quarterback.
Pierce is "leaning toward" starting rookie Aidan O'Connell over Jimmy Garoppolo for Sunday's game against the New York Giants, according to Vincent Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. That's the right call.
The 31-year-old Garoppolo probably won't be a significant part of the Raiders' future, but O'Connell might be. Even if he develops into nothing more than a long-term backup, there's value in that. The Raiders need to find out what they have in the rookie.
Pierce and Kelly must also evaluate impending free agents like running back Josh Jacobs, right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor, defensive tackle Adam Butler and cornerback David Long. Another roster rebuild is almost certainly looming, and it's imperative that Las Vegas has a grasp on who to keep.
Figuring out if Jacobs and Hunter Renfrow—a potential 2024 cap casualty—can return to Pro Bowl form would certainly help. Along the way, it would behoove the Raiders to get a deeper look at rookies like edge-rusher Tyree Wilson, tight end Michael Mayer and wide receiver Tre Tucker to better understand where their weaknesses lie.
McDaniels was coaching to win and to save his job. Pierce will certainly want to make a good impression, but identifying what sort of core the Raiders actually have must take precedence.
If the process leads to losing and a better draft position, all the better.
Devise a Quarterback Plan
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Finding a long-term answer at quarterback is the most important task in front of Las Vegas. The Raiders will focus on the coach and GM search soon enough, but they have to put a quarterback plan into motion now.
The aging and oft-injured Garoppolo was never going to be a long-term answer. He's shown that he isn't the short-term answer either. The Raiders can release him at the start of the new league year, eat a $25.3 million cap hit and save $199,000 in cap space. A clean break might be for the best.
The first step in moving on will involve evaluating O'Connell. If he has a Tony Romo-like emergence over the final nine games, Las Vegas might already have its answer. If he proves to be even serviceable as a starter, that could save Las Vegas from targeting a bridge quarterback like Joshua Dobbs or Jacoby Brissett in free agency.
The second step is deciding whether to make a run at a top quarterback prospect like USC's Caleb Williams or North Carolina's Drake Maye.
Williams and Maye are the second- and fourth-ranked prospects, respectively, on the B/R NFL Scouting Department's early 2024 big board. The Raiders would have the eighth overall pick if the season ended today, according to Tankathon.
Drafting a quarterback—an option that Ziegler passed on last April—would be the best move for Las Vegas.
There are no sure things in the NFL draft. In a division likely to be headlined by Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert for the next decade, however, the Raiders need their own long-term answer.
Head Coach Search
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If the Raiders hit on a quarterback pick, that will help provide stability for the incoming front office. They'll eventually have to decide who to install in that position, though.
If Pierce and Kelly do a tremendous job over the final nine games, they must be considered. Davis moved on from interim coach Rich Bisaccia after the 2021 season even though he helped Las Vegas navigate a difficult season, refocus and reach the playoffs.
McDaniels replaced Bisaccia, which is a mistake that Davis can't afford to make again.
A traditional coaching search should probably start with the anti-McDaniels—someone who has actually had a successful tenure as an NFL head coach. Carolina Panthers senior assistant Jim Caldwell should be a top candidate. He was last a head coach in 2017, but he's won two Super Bowls, including one as the Indianapolis Colts' assistant head coach.
Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is another intriguing option. He's done a good job of revamping Minnesota's defense this season, worked wonders for the Pittsburgh Steelers run defense in 2022 as linebackers coach and compiled a 19-14 record in his final two campaigns as the Miami Dolphins head coach.
The Raiders should also consider up-and-coming names like Cincinnati Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo and Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. Anarumo has consistently found success with a defense largely comprised of free-agent castoffs, while Johnson's blocking and run-game concepts have helped make Detroit an offensive powerhouse.
If the Raiders don't retain Pierce or target experience, they should go after an innovator who can get the most out of the retooled roster.
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GM Search
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No NFL franchise can find long-term success without the right executive running the show. It may be hard to properly evaluate Kelly with the trade deadline already passed, but he has to garner some consideration.
If the Raiders start over, they should target executives with experience and some degree of success. NFL Chief Football Administrative Officer Dawn Aponte should be high on Davis' wish list.
NFL Media's Scott Pioli recently laid out a great case for Aponte as a general manager. Aponte now manages one of the most important positions in the NFL, and she has served as an executive for the New York Jets, Cleveland Browns and the Dolphins. She served as the Executive Vice President of Football Operations in Miami from 2012 to 2016.
San Francisco 49ers assistant general manager Adam Peters is another top candidate to consider. Since John Lynch took over as San Francisco's general manager in 2017, the 49ers have been building a perennial contender. They reached the Super Bowl in Lynch's third season, when Peters was their vice president of player personnel.
Kansas City Chiefs assistant general manager Mike Borgonzi, now in his 15th season with the franchise, should also be high on Las Vegas' list. The Raiders have seen firsthand the consistent results that Borgonzi has helped produce in Kansas City.
Free-Agent and Trade Markets
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Once the Raiders have a new front office in place, they must focus on the start of the new league year on March 13, the trade market and free agency.
If the Raiders don't land a top draft pick, they must heavily consider trading older veterans like star receiver Davante Adams. The soon-to-be 31-year-old is still a premier No. 1 wideout, and moving him could provide the draft capital needed to secure a new franchise quarterback.
Keeping Adams would likely aid said quarterback, but at this point in his career, Adams probably wants no part of another rebuild. The potential for a strained relationship shouldn't be overlooked.
Trading Adams before June 1 would trigger a $23.6 million dead-cap hit but would save $1.8 million in cap space. The Raiders are currently projected to have $54.1 million in cap space in 2024. They could save another $8.2 million by releasing or trading Renfrow.
In free agency, Las Vegas should focus on younger players who can help see the impending rebuild through to the other side.
A pass-rusher like 25-year-old Josh Uche could help give Las Vegas the complement to Maxx Crosby it has been lacking. A cornerback like 24-year-old Jaylon Johnson or 26-year-old L'Jarius Sneed could help improve the secondary. To bolster a run defense currently ranked 26th in yards per carry allowed, the Raiders could target 25-year-old linebacker Devin White or 27-year-old defensive tackle Christian Wilkins.
If the Raiders move Adams, 24-year-old wideout Tee Higgins could be high on their wish list. While the offensive line market isn't great, 25-year-old tackle Jonah Williams might finally provide the stability opposite Kolton Miller that the Raiders have lacked.
A focus on both talent and youth is required here, because Las Vegas isn't a piece or two away from a Super Bowl.
The 2024 Draft
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Las Vegas' biggest goal in the 2024 draft must be to come away with a quarterback unless O'Connell shocks everyone and plays at an All-Pro level. Garoppolo shouldn't be long for the franchise, Brian Hoyer is a serviceable backup at best, and the free-agent market will be headlined by Kirk Cousins, who is now recovering from a torn Achilles.
If the Raiders aren't in range to draft Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, they must get there via trades or identify a comparable quarterback prospect. Quarterbacks like Michigan's J.J. McCarthy, Texas' Quinn Ewers, LSU's Jayden Daniels and Colorado's Shedeur Sanders are all likely to enter the conversation in the coming months.
If O'Connell does impress, Las Vegas should make a run at a top receiver like Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. or an offensive lineman like Alabama's JC Latham. Finding, developing and supporting a quarterback has to be the Raiders' top priority.
Other needs the Raiders should address in the draft include pass-rusher—the B/R Scouting Department paired Las Vegas with Illinois' Jer'Zhan Newton in its latest mock draft—interior defensive line and linebacker.
If cornerbacks David Long, Marcus Peters and Amik Robertson depart in free agency, that will be another position of need.
The Raiders must focus on foundational pieces and premium positions through all stages of the draft. While Las Vegas can't afford to reach to address a position, the 2024 class is deep enough, and the Raiders have enough holes, that the next GM should be able to find the appropriate value while targeting needs.
By tearing down a 2021 playoff roster and building "their" team, McDaniels and Ziegler created a messy mish-mash of players that has struggled to operate as a unit. Undoing the damage will require drafting with a long-term focus.
Cap and contract information via Spotrac.
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