NFL Picks Week 9: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Score Bets
Halloween has passed, winter weather is rapidly approaching, and the second half of the 2023 NFL season is right around the corner.
Week 9 is slated to kick off with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans on Thursday night. We're likely to see rookie Titans quarterback Will Levis, who just tossed four touchdown passes in his starting debut, against one of the most electrifying defenses in the league.
It's going to be a fun way to jump-start another exciting and, most likely, surprise-filled week of football action. Below, we'll dive into the matchups and the recent results to identify some early over/unders to target.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Titans and Steelers Under 36 Points
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This is an extremely low points total, but it's more than reasonable for the Week 9 opener. Thursday night matchups are rarely clean games, and we're going to see a young quarterback making his second NFL start against T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and an aggressive Steelers defense.
We may also see backup Mitch Trubisky under center for the Steelers, as starter Kenny Pickett suffered a rib injury in Week 8. Either that, or we're likely to see a less-than-healthy Pickett against a talented Titans defensive front.
"Steelers coach Mike Tomlin rules DB Minkah Fitzpatrick out for Thursday, but says the door is ajar for QB Kenny Pickett. No structural damage to his ribs makes it possible," NFL Media's Ian Rapoport posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Pickett told reporters on Tuesday that he plans to play.
None of this lays the groundwork for an offensive masterpiece. While a defensive score could easily push this toward the over, it's worth noting that three of Pittsburgh's last four games have involved 36 or fewer points.
Falcons and Vikings Under 37.5 Points
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This is another low over/under, but quarterback uncertainty leans into the under side of the equation.
Quarterback Taylor Heinicke finished Week 8 for the Atlanta Falcons. after Desmond Ridder left for a concussion evaluation—he was cleared but did not return. According to NFL Media's Nick Shook, the Falcons will wait until at least Wednesday to name a Week 9 starter.
"I gotta see where he's at. That's the best I can give you," head coach Arthur Smith said of Ridder, per Shook.
The uncertainty could throw a proverbial wrench into Atlanta's preparation.
The Minnesota Vikings, meanwhile, won't have starting quarterback Kirk Cousins, who suffered a season-ending Achilles tear in Week 8. With Nick Mullens on injured reserve, it'll be rookie Jaren Hall against Atlanta's eight-ranked pass defense.
The Viking did acquire Joshua Dobbs from the Cardinals, but still plan to start Hall, according to ESPN's Kevin Seifert.
This one favors the Falcons and the under. Atlanta hasn't scored more than 21 points in a game since Week 2, and it has averaged just over 17 points this season. Without Cousins or start receiver Justin Jefferson, it's hard to see Minnesota pushing this to the over.
Colts and Panthers over 44 Points
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At its current over/under line, Sunday's game between the Indianapolis Colts and Carolina Panthers feels like the safest over pick of the weekend. Indianapolis' offense has been terrific under head coach Shane Steichen, and that hasn't changed since Gardner Minshew II took over for Anthony Richardson at quarterback.
The Colts are averaging just over 25 points per game and have scored at least 20 in every outing. They've averaged just over 26 points per game in Minshew's starts.
Indy's defense, meanwhile, has been less than stellar. That should give a bit of a boost to a Carolina Panthers offense struggling to find a rhythm with rookie quarterback Bryce Young.
The Panthers have averaged just over 18 points per game, but they'll be at home and playing against the league's worst scoring defense.
Each of Indianapolis' last three games has carried a points total over 55, and six of their eight games have topped 50. As long as the line hovers around the mid-40s, the over is the enticing play.
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