NFL Picks 2023: Early Week 9 Odds to Exploit after Final Week 8 Results
Week 8 provided a pivotal slate and perhaps a little clarity on the impending NFL playoff push.
The Cincinnati Bengals appear to be back, as Cincinnati went into San Francisco and handed the 49ers a decisive loss. The 49ers appear vulnerable after losing three straight, and the Seattle Seahawks took over first place in the NFC West.
The Buffalo Bills picked up another ugly win, while the Kansas City Chiefs had an ugly loss on the road against the Denver Broncos. This leaves the Philadelphia Eagles as the only one-loss team left in the league and a jumbled picture at the top of the AFC.
Below, we'll dive further into the Week 8 results and make a few picks for Week 9 based on the early odds.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Falcons -5 Versus Vikings
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This line is likely to move further in the Atlanta Falcons' favor, as the Minnesota Vikings will be without both quarterback Kirk Cousins and wide receiver Justin Jefferson.
Jefferson remains on injured reserve, while Cousins suffered a torn Achilles on Sunday and is expected to miss the rest of the season.
The Falcons could have their own quarterback issues, as Taylor Heinicke replaced Desmond Ridder in Week 8 and helped spark the offense in the second half. Ridder was evaluated for a concussion and was cleared but did not return. However, Atlanta insists that it still believes in its second-year quarterback.
"We have a lot of confidence in Des," head coach Arthur Smith said, per The Athletic's Josh Kendall. "I didn't take him out for performance issues."
Regardless of who is under center for the Falcons, it's hard to see the Vikings keeping pace with rookie fifth-round pick Jaren Hall under center and without Jefferson. Veteran backup Nick Mullens is also on injured reserve for Minnesota.
Eagles -3 Versus Cowboys
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Sunday's matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles could be the game of the week.
The Eagles narrowly escaped the Washington Commanders for the second time this season, while the Cowboys dominated the Los Angeles Rams. Dallas could have the edge in confidence coming into the game, but it's not a great matchup for Dallas.
The Rams are a middling team, the type that the Cowboys have feasted on this season. The Eagles now look like the best team in the NFC, they have home-field advantage, and they have a multi-faceted ground game.
Jalen Hurts, D'Andre Swift and the Philadelphia rushing attack can cause problems for a Dallas defense allowing 4.1 yards per carry on the ground.
The Cowboys have struggled to run the ball consistently, and their pass protection has appeared suspect. This is another situation that Philly can exploit with a deep and powerful defensive front.
As long as the line remains in the field-goal range, the Eagles are far more likely than not to cover.
Colts and Panthers over 44 Points
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This feels likely an extremely low points line considering how Indianapolis Colts games have unfolded this season.
Whether it's been Anthony Richardson or Gardner Minshew II under center for Indy—it'll be Minshew from here on out—the Colts offense has been potent. Indianapolis has scored at least 20 points in every game and is averaging just over 25 per contest.
The Carolina Panthers offense has not been as potent, and Carolina has really struggled to get rookie quarterback Bryce Young going. The Panthers have scored more than 21 points only twice.
However, a very inconsistent Colts defense should be the equalizer here. No team has allowed more points per game, and each of Indy's last three contests carried a points total over 55.
Carolina is also playing host, which could give the Panthers a bit of an offensive boost.
Only two Colts games have failed to reach this points total—games against the Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans. Targeting the over before the line rises would be advisable for this contest.
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