Buccaneers vs. Bills: Updated Odds, Money Line, Spread, Props to Watch for TNF
Week 8 will kick off on Thursday night, when the Buffalo Bills host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The 3-3 Bucs started out playing better than most expected. However, they have lost two straight and are in danger of losing ground to the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South. The 4-3 Bills, meanwhile, have lost two of their last three and have been decimated by defensive injuries.
Over the past three weeks, Buffalo has not looked or played like the title contender everyone expected to see. All of this has set the stage for a Thursday night matchup that is more intriguing than it might have appeared during the summer.
Below, you'll find a look at the latest odds, our predictions, and some player props to consider for the Buccaneers-Bills matchup.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills
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Date: Thursday, October 26
When: 8:15 p.m. ET
Live Stream and TV: Prime Video (Fox and ABC in Local Markets)
Line: Buffalo -8.5
Over/Under: 43
Money Line: Buffalo -440 (bet $440 to win $100), Tampa Bay +340 (bet $100 to win $340)
Preview and Prediction
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Most seemed to believe that the Buccaneers would simply fall off in the post-Tom Brady era, but Tampa has not gone quietly. Tampa boasts the league's sixth-ranked scoring defense, and quarterback Baker Mayfield has been a bit better than serviceable.
Mayfield isn't going to leap into the MVP conversation, but he's completing 65.2 percent of his passes and has a respectable 89.2 QB rating. He's also battling a knee injury, though it isn't expected to sideline him in Week 8.
"Just re-aggravated what I had against the [New Orleans] Saints," Mayfield told reporters.
The Bucs are not a pushover opponent, and Buffalo's defensive injuries could keep things a lot closer than the oddsmakers expect. Tre'Davious White, DaQuan Jones and Matt Milano are all on injured reserve, which has left the Bills' D uncharacteristically vulnerable.
The Bill surrendered 364 yards and 29 points to the offensively inconsistent New England Patriots last week.
While there's the slight chance of an upset here, fans shouldn't expect it. Josh Allen and the offense have started slowly in each of their last three games, but Buffalo hasn't lost an actual home game yet this season.
The Bills were technically the home team during the loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, but that game took place in London.
Expect Buffalo to find just enough offense from Allen, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and James Cook to pull ahead in a physical, low-scoring battle.
Prediction: Bills 22, Buccaneers 19
Josh Allen over 263.5 Passing Yards
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While Tampa's defense has done a terrific job of keeping opponents out of the end zone, they haven't featured a lock-down unit against the pass. The Bucs rank 23rd in yards per attempt allowed, and they've surrendered an average of roughly 247 passing yards per game.
Expect Allen to top that number for the Bills because he'll have to. Buffalo's run game has been solid this season, but Allen hasn't been using his legs often, and the Buccaneers are solid up front.
Tampa ranks 11th in yards per rush allowed.
Expect the Bills to take to the air early and often in this matchup and for Allen to hit the over in this yardage over/under. He carries -115 odds to do so, which is a more favorable play than his -150 odds to throw two or more touchdown passes.
The Buccaneers have allowed one passing touchdown per game, on average.
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Rachaad White over 46.5 Rushing Yards
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The Buccaneers haven't run the ball well this season, and they've recognized that their offensive identity doesn't involve a run-heavy approach.
"We're kind of learning that we're not going to be a run-first team, but we're still going to do it when we need to," Mayfield told reporters.
While the Bucs may not lean on the run—and with Mike Evans in Chris Godwin in the lineup, that makes sense—but we should still see a heavy dose of Rachaad White in this matchup. Buffalo has been particularly vulnerable to the ground game and is coughing up 5.2 yards per carry.
White has only topped 50 rushing yards in two of his sex outings this season, but if the Buccaneers are going to keep this one close, they need to take advantage of the Bills' biggest defensive weakness—and White, with 83 attempts, leads the backfield by a pretty significant margin.
Mayfield ranks No. 2 on the team with 28 rushes, while backup Ke'Shawn Vaughn has logged just 19 carries. Tampa did activate Chase Edmonds from injured reserve this week, but White should still see plenty of work.
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