NFL Odds Week 7: Betting Tips after Friday's Injury Reports and Practice News
Injuries continue to impact the outcomes of games and how they are played in 2023.
Last Sunday, for example, the San Francisco 49ers lost both Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel to injury and ended up falling short against the Cleveland Browns. The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears engaged in a battle of subpar defense, but with Justin Jefferson sidelined and Justin Fields exiting with a thumb injury, it resulted in a low-scoring affair.
We can expect injuries to again be a factor in Week 7, with players like Fields, Roschon Johnson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Josh Uche, David Montgomery and Marcus Williarms already ruled out.
How might injuries and player availability impact this week's wagering? Let's examine the latest odds, injury buzz and practice intel.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Trust the Chiefs -5.5 Versus the Chargers
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The Kansas City Chiefs are mostly healthy coming off a long week and against the rival Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs played last Thursday and have had extra time to prepare for Justin Herbert and Co. too.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, is on a short week after losing to the Dallas Cowboys on Monday. L.A. won't have wideout Mike Williams, who is on injured reserve with a torn ACL, which creates a lot of problems against a terrific Kansas City defense.
Kansas City now ranks fifth in total defense and second in points allowed.
Additionally, L.A. will be without receiver Jaylen Guyton (knee, while standout safety Derwin James (ankle) is questionable.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense are still battling to find a rhythm, but they could make strides against a Chargers defense that has been putrid against the pass. L.A. ranks 29th in net yards per attempt allowed, 32nd in passing yards allowed and 31st in total yards allowed.
This may feel like a large line, considering both of last year's matchups were decided by a field goal. However, the fact that Kansas City's defense has improved since then, while L.A.'s has not, makes it very likely that the Chiefs pull away late.
Take the Browns -3.5 at the Colts
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Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson has missed the last two games—which came over a three-week span—with a rotator cuff injury in his throwing shoulder. The Browns went 1-1 without him, relying on P.J. Walker and a stout defense to beat the San Francisco 49ers in Week 6.
It appears, however, that Watson is set to make his return against the Indianapolis Colts. He returned to practice this week and was throwing on both Thursday and Friday.
"Watson throwing again Friday, got almost all the QB reps during the portion of practice open to the media," ESPN's Jake Trotter posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.
The return of Watson, who has played poorly for Cleveland more often than not, doesn't mean that Cleveland is set to blow out the Colts. However, it does mean that the Browns should be able to run their normal offense.
Expect Cleveland to still lean on its defense in this one, and Jim Schwartz's unit is likely to make things difficult for Gardner Minshew II and the Colts. It won't help that wideout Alec Pierce is battling a shoulder injury.
As long as Watson can limit his mistakes, the Browns should win by at least a field goal.
Target the Bills and Patriots Over 40 Points
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The over/under line of 40 points feels fair for this one, considering how the offenses of the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots have looked in recent weeks.
Buffalo has started slowly in each of the past two games, while New England has struggled all year offensively.
However, defensive injuries are mounting for the Bills, who now have Tre'Davious White, DaQuan Jones and Matt Milano on injured reserve. The Patriots defense, meanwhile, hasn't been the same without Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon.
New England started the year with a solid defense but has surrendered an average of 31 points over the past three weeks.
Buffalo has had New England's number in recent years, winning four straight in the series and winning each by at least 12 points.
Expect the Bills to try racking up the points in an effort to get their offense back on track, and expect them to score 30-plus. Expect New England to do just enough in a home stand to put this one over the line.
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Take the Bears and Raiders Under 37.5 Points
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The Las Vegas Raiders have ruled out Garoppolo with the back injury that he suffered against the New England Patriots last Sunday. This likely means that we'll see rookie Aidan O'Connell under center on Sunday.
Journeyman Brian Hoyer finished last week's game, but O'Connell got the start when Garoppolo was sidelined in Week 4.
O'Connell was up-and-down in that game, and Las Vegas mustered a mere 17 points. Of course, that's par for the course this season, as the Raiders have scored more than 17 points just twice and have not scored more than 21 in a game.
Regardless of who has been under center for the Raiders, offense has been a slog.
The Bears, meanwhile, are likely to lean on undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent. Bagent was decent (10-of-14 for 83 yards, 1 TD) after Fields exited with a thumb injury last week, but the Chicago offense is not set to explode.
Without Johnson in the backfield, it may be difficult for Chicago to find offensive balance.
Fields sparked the offense in Weeks 4 and 5, but Chicago has averaged just 15 points in its four other games. Las Vegas' defense has played better than many expected, and it's highly unlikely that we see an offensive back-and-forth in this one.
*Injury information via NFL.com unless otherwise noted.
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