32 Predictions for the 2023-24 NBA Season
Regular-season NBA action is back! And with its return comes a non-negotiable, certifiably fun-as-hell obligation: the delivery of one prediction for every team, as well as our MVP and championship picks.
Bleacher Report NBA staff writers Grant Hughes and Dan Favale have been tapped to peer into the crystal ball and muster whatever clairvoyance they can to complete this exercise. No team will be be left out. Triple-double promise.
These predictions are not meant to be unhinged. (Spoiler alert: Those are coming.) They're not designed to be "Well, duh," either.
Instead, we are attempting to convey notable thoughts and opinions, both flattering and not, that we believe will become truths.
On to the reasonable-but-not-unimaginative predictions!
NBA Champion: Denver Nuggets
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Choosing the Denver Nuggets to repeat as NBA champions isn't sexy. But it is smart.
Losing Bruce Brown and increasing their dependence on Christian Braun and a host of inexperienced youngsters—Peyton Watson, Hunter Tyson, maybe Julian Strawther and Jalen Pickett—is undoubtedly risky. But the bench was no great shakes last year.
When it mattered most, the Nuggets leaned upon seven guys. They still have no worse than the second-best top six in basketball, the stock of which will probably rise.
Nikola Jokić is already the best player alive. Jamal Murray isn't recovering from an ACL injury this year, so he could be–should be—better. If Michael Porter Jr. defends and rebounds like he did in the playoffs, godspeed. Braun is entering Year 2 and could improve. Aaron Gordon will descend into offensive valleys, like always, but he remains in the perfect role.
And hey, if you don't want to pick the Nuggets because of the Nuggets, pick the Nuggets because of the more holistic issues facing every other top contender.
The Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns have their own depth issues and are integrating major names. Ditto for the Golden State Warriors, who are also maybe too small.
The Philadelphia 76ers are threatening to implode under the weight of James Harden's uncertain future. The Cleveland Cavaliers are young. The Miami Heat did nothing to improve their team. The Los Angeles Lakers are still entirely reliant on age-39-season LeBron James and Anthony Davis' availability struggles. The L.A. Clippers are...the L.A. Clippers.
Denver is the safest, best possible pick.
—Favale
MVP: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
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When predicting future MVPs, it's generally a good idea to look at the past. If there's a guy who's won two of the last three MVP awards and hasn't finished outside the top 10 in voting since 2017-18, you probably ought to start with him.
In addition to past precedent, several other key factors fall in Nikola Jokić's favor.
First, the Denver Nuggets are perhaps the safest bet to win 50 games in the West. Team success remains a component of MVP voting, and the Nuggets seem assured of ticking that box.
Second, MVPs need to be the clearest drivers of their team's success. The title-winning Nuggets got outscored by 11.7 points per 100 possessions whenever Jokić was off the floor last year, a differential that would have ranked dead last among all 30 teams across the full season. So that takes care of the whole "impacts winning" issue.
Lastly, Jokić is a lock to have the conventional stats necessary for top consideration. He's averaged at least 24.5 points, 10.8 rebounds and 7.9 assists in each of the last three years while—and this is also key—staying much healthier than most of the guys competing for the award.
This is the safest, easiest, no-questions-asked pick.
—Hughes
Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young Will Not Lead the NBA in Assists or Turnovers
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Trae Young amassed more total assists and turnovers in 2021-22 than anyone else, and then he did it again last season. Your first thought should probably be some version of "Maybe get off the ball once in a while, Trae."
New head coach Quin Snyder probably agrees.
Snyder didn't get a chance to install his full strategic package upon taking over for Nate McMillan late last year, but his track record suggests Young won't dribble the rock into the ground for a third straight year. Though his Utah Jazz teams ran plenty of pick-and-roll action, a set in which Young excels, Snyder favored "advantage basketball" marked by more movement, handoffs and off-ball activity.
That'll bring diversity (and probably improvement) to a Hawks attack that has been too one-note in recent seasons, and it will also reduce Young's ball dominance. Trae is already running around away from the action more in preseason play than he ever has.
Young's counting stats could dip in 2023-24, but that might wind up being a net positive for Atlanta.
—Hughes
Boston Celtics: Nobody Wins More Games
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We'll have to wait until June to get ultimate confirmation on the quality of this revamped Boston Celtics squad. When you overhaul an already excellent roster by essentially swapping out four rotation pieces for two, it's an inherently risky strategy.
But the upside is immense, and we're going to see some of it long before the Celtics either win the 2023-24 title…or don't.
This group is going to be a brutal matchup every night during the regular season. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are probably the best defensive guard duo in the league, Jayson Tatum is a small step from perennial MVP consideration, Jaylen Brown is an overqualified second option, and Kristaps Porziņģis is coming off the best season of his career. He, in particular, adds a dual "rim protection and stretch" dimension Boston hasn't had before.
All of that is to say the Celtics will leverage the talent of their top six (don't forget the ageless Al Horford) en route to the NBA's best record this year. In the interest of precision, let's go with 58 wins.
—Hughes
Brooklyn Nets: Somebody's Going to Make An All-Defensive Team
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Questions remain about the Brooklyn Nets' backcourt shot creation and general offensive depth. It's certainly a positive that Mikal Bridges performed well in a dramatically scaled-up role after coming over from the Phoenix Suns, where he was the fourth or fifth option most nights. But Brooklyn would be better served if he were a little further down the pecking order.
In contrast to the uncertainty on offense, it seems clear Brooklyn is going to put some top-end defensive groups on the floor. Led by Nic Claxton, who was much aggrieved (and therefore motivated) by his exclusion from defense-related honors last year, and flanked by Bridges, the Nets are primed to smother teams.
Dorian Finney-Smith was a stopper on the Dallas Mavericks team that reached the 2022 Western Conference Finals, and Royce O'Neale played that role for some defensively excellent Utah Jazz teams in the not-so-distant past. Ben Simmons, perhaps deservedly an afterthought in the wake of his health history, has made two All-Defensive first teams.
That collective defensive firepower will get this group noticed, elevating its individual pieces in the eyes of voters. At least one of Claxton or Bridges will wind up making an All-Defensive team.
—Hughes
Charlotte Hornets: Everything Will Be Different In a Year
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With LaMelo Ball healthy, there's a good chance the Charlotte Hornets add 10 or 15 wins to last year's total, finish around .500 and threaten for a play-In spot. Even if all that happens, the smart money is still on head coach Steve Clifford and top executive Mitch Kupchak looking for new gigs after the 2023-24 season.
When new ownership arrives, as it did when Michael Jordan sold his stake in the team to a group led by Gabe Plotkin and Rick Schnall over the summer, new management is rarely far behind. With Clifford and Kupchak both on the final guaranteed year of their respective contracts, per Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports, the Hornets could make a clean break in 2024.
The Hornets went 423-600 and never won a playoff series during Jordan's 13 years as majority owner, so almost any structural change will bring improvement by default. New ownership took over relatively late in the offseason and may have feared the disruption of a quick overhaul.
Rest assured, change is on the way by next summer at the latest. And if Charlotte doesn't get off to a strong start, it could come even sooner.
—Hughes
Chicago Bulls: Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan Will Be Traded
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This is on the bolder side, and significant change would run counter to a quiet Chicago Bulls summer in which the "big" move was re-signing 33-year-old Nikola Vučević to a three-year, $60 million deal. But at some point, enough is enough.
Consider this a bet that Chicago will finally reach the conclusion it has resisted for so long: It's time to blow things up.
DeMar DeRozan will earn $28 million in the last year of his contract, making him relatively easy to move. Contenders might be willing to send the Bulls longer-term salary with a first-round pick attached to land the veteran scorer, or DeRozan could head out with draft consideration as a sweetener if the Bulls don't want to take on salary beyond 2023-24.
Zach LaVine came on strong late last season as he put more distance between himself and the arthroscopic knee surgery he underwent in May 2022. He should be moveable for positive value—even with four years and $178.1 million left on his contract.
Chicago lacks a current superstar or future cornerstone, is a combined two games under .500 over the last three years and has one playoff victory since 2017. That's classic mediocrity-treadmill behavior. Time to start over.
—Hughes
Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley Will Win DPOY
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Evan Mobley finished third in Defensive Player of the Year voting last year, but he garnered only eight of the possible 100 first-place votes. So while predicting he'll climb two spots to take the 2023-24 crown might not seem like an outlandish prediction, he wasn't nearly as close to winning the award as it seemed last year. Plus, it's not like 24-year-old incumbent DPOY Jaren Jackson Jr. is going anywhere.
The statistical argument for Mobley depends on which numbers you prefer. Last year, he was good but not great in Defensive Estimated Plus/Minus and Defensive Box Plus/Minus. Using those alone, he probably shouldn't have finished third.
However, Mobley ranked first by a mile in ESPN's Defensive Real Plus/Minus. That particular number aligns most closely with the eye test that shows Mobley wreaking havoc at the rim, on the perimeter and everywhere in between.
Cleveland is going to win a ton of regular-season games and will almost definitely have a top-five defense after finishing first overall last year. Mobley will get (and deserve) most of the credit.
—Hughes
Dallas Mavericks: They Will Trade Their 2027 First-Round Pick
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I will not make a habit of focusing on trade predictions this early more than twice. Or three times. Promise. But the Dallas Mavericks face a special brand of urgency.
Luka Dončić will be two seasons away from free agency after this season (assuming he declines his 2026-27 player option). That makes next summer the ever-critical start of "pre-agency," a period in which he enters trade-request watch ahead of open-market and extension eligibility. The Mavericks cannot afford to play it safe at all in the lead-up. And by all appearances, they won't.
Dallas forked over an unprotected 2029 first-rounder to land Kyrie Irving last February. It then sent an unprotected 2030 first-round swap to San Antonio as part of the Grant Williams sign-and-trade this past summer. It will inevitably part with its 2027 first-rounder, too.
Emphasis on inevitably. Because it doesn't matter how this season starts.
Either the Mavs are better than expected, in which case they'll need to triple down on maximizing their window with Dončić. Or they're suffering from the projected defensive issues and maybe an over-reliance on rookies Olivier Maxence-Prosper and Derick Lively II, in which case they'll need to triple down on salvaging this window.
—Favale
Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray Makes 1st Career All-Star Appearance
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So, Grant and I collectively picked Nikola Jokić to win the NBA's 2023-24 MVP. Then we decided on the Denver Nuggets as our 2023-24 title pick. What's left to predict?
A first-time All-Star appearance for Jamal Murray.
Cracking the Western Conference All-Star pool will be difficult, even with Damian Lillard moving to the East. Murray is also notoriously inconsistent, particularly outside of the postseason, when he's not as apt to flip the iconic-performance switch.
These realities do little to deter me.
Somewhat lost amid the Nuggets' upcoming title defense is Murray's clean bill of health. Last season, he was working his way back from a torn left ACL that cost him more than a year's worth of basketball. Not surprisingly, he got off to a topsy-turvy start.
That isn't the case this year. And despite playing all the way into the Finals, he prioritized rest over the summer, electing not to join Team Canada, as he told Katie Heindl at UPROXX.
It would be foolish to count on Murray maintaining his playoff intensity during the regular season. But it would be equally foolish to rule out the possibility that he averages 24 points and seven assists while burying an avalanche of off-the-dribble threes and more effectively carrying bench-heavy units without Jokić en route to making his first All-Star appearance.
-Favale
Detroit Pistons: No Team Will Win Fewer Games
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This might seem like an easy one since the Detroit Pistons won 17 games last year, five fewer than anybody else. But the return to health of Cade Cunningham and the addition of veterans Monte Morris and Joe Harris seems to be kindling optimism.
The Pistons enter this season with an over/under of 27.5 or 28.5, depending on where you look. That's a low total, but nowhere near the lowest in the league.
It'll be difficult to sink below the Washington Wizards and Portland Trail Blazers in the standings, both of whom are in the fledgling stages of their rebuilds. And there's often a surprise squad that gets off track early and decides to steer into the skid.
Still, the Pistons figure to devote virtually all of their playmaking responsibilities to very inexperienced options, a great way to ensure consistently bad offense. Add to that a roster seemingly designed to play two non-spacing bigs at once, and things could get ugly in a hurry.
All won't be lost. Players like Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, Jaren Duren and even Cunningham need to take their developmental lumps if they're ever going to improve. The pain that could be coming this season will pay off eventually.
—Hughes
Golden State Warriors: The Offense will be League Average or Better WITHOUT Steph
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Here is how the Golden State Warriors have fared during the regular season without Stephen Curry on the floor since their first title:
- 2014-15: 103.5 offensive rating (38th percentile), 0.6 net rating
- 2015-16: 104.8 offensive rating (36th percentile), minus-3.7 net rating
- 2016-17: 103.8 offensive rating (19th percentile), 0.2 net rating
- 2017-18: 107.2 offensive rating (44th percentile), 1.4 net rating
- 2018-19: 109.7 offensive rating (47th percentile), minus-3.2 net rating
- 2019-20: 104.7 offensive rating (11th percentile), minus-9.2 net rating
- 2020-21: 101.1 offensive rating (4th percentile), minus-8.5 net rating
- 2021-22: 109.4 offensive rating (28th percentile), minus-2.4 net rating
- 2022-23: 113.0 offensive rating (35th percentile), minus-2.0 net rating
Golden State's trend of bottoming out offensively without Curry is so incomprehensibly alarming that it's almost impressive it has endured this long. But no more.
This is just a roundabout way of saying the Chris Paul acquisition will pan out. Maybe I'm too high on the training camp and preseason supply. Sue me. CP3 appears to have bought into both his role and the Warriors' overarching tenets. He will provide an air of offensive steadiness during the non-Steph minutes that this team hasn't yet known.
I considered taking this one stop further and also predicting Golden State will win the Curry-less stretches, something it has also rarely done. I can't get there. The Warriors don't necessarily have the size or proven talent to navigate those stints without issue.
As it stands, this optimistic cocktail is already garnished with variably sized leaps of faith in Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, Gary Payton II and Dario Šarić.
—Favale
Houston Rockets: Jalen Green Joins the 25-and-5 Club
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Jalen Green is coming off a sophomore season in which he averaged 22.1 points and 3.7 assists on lackluster efficiency. Is it really safe to predict his entry into the 25-point, five-assist club when the Houston Rockets added Fred VanVleet and Amen Thompson this offseason? And when new head coach Ime Udoka may run more stuff for Alperen Şengün? And when Dillon "Likes to Freelance" Brooks figures prominently into the rotation?
Possibly not. Let's do it anyway.
ESPN's Zach Lowe wrote extensively about the continued development of Green. Among the biggest takeaways: The Rockets don't plan to materially diminish Green's agency. And if he's going to have similar or more influence over the offense, 25 and five is far from out of reach.
Cleaning up some low-hanging fruit gets Green to the finish line. Exchanging contested mid-rangers and threes for catch-and-shoot looks should bump up his efficiency and scoring average. Yet even if he continues indulging the ultra-difficult, his shooting slashes may still rise. He drilled 37.2 percent of his off-the-bounce threes after the All-Star break.
Peppering in more assists is the bigger challenge—and totally possible. Green passed on only 22.6 percent of his drives, which led to a 3.6 assist rate. Both were bottom-five marks among 100 players who finished seven or more drives per game. More than 87.5 percent of his pick-and-roll ball-handler possessions also ended with a shot or turnover. Slowing down and tweaking his mindset in these situations alone can get him to over five dimes per night.
—Favale
Indiana Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton Makes an All-NBA Team
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A year from now, we'll have a much simpler way to make the case that Tyrese Haliburton is one of the most potent offensive players of this generation. No longer will we have to cite his status as the only player in NBA history to average over 20.0 points and 10.0 assists while hitting at least 40.0 percent of his threes in a single season.
Instead, we'll just point to his All-NBA nod as validation.
Haliburton might have collected that honor last season if he hadn't missed most of January with a knee injury, which tanked the Pacers' season and contributed to him playing just two of their final 15 games.
Indy might not vault into the playoff mix as some expect. But Haliburton is going to put up numbers with great volume and efficiency, and he's going to do it while showcasing some of the league's best floor-reading savvy.
—Hughes
LA Clippers: They'll Trade for Someone Who Cracks Their Most-Used Closing Unit
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I'm not saying this is about James Harden. I'm not not saying it, either.
Seriously, though. If the L.A. Clippers don't trade for Harden, they will make another similarly sized move ahead of the Feb. 8 trade deadline. Their situation is that urgent.
Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are injury-prone, hitting their mid-30s and less than a year from possibly becoming free agents. (They each have player options for the 2024-25 season.) The clock on this core is ticking in more ways than one.
This prediction knows no exceptions, either. Maybe the Clippers begin the season playing like gangbusters. That doesn't inoculate them against their tried-and-true fragility and aging nucleus. And if they belly-flop to start the year, well, that only increases the urgency to make a big splash, perhaps to Daryl Morey's delight.
Oh, and then there's the new billion-dollar arena, the Intuit Dome, which the Clippers plan to open for the 2024-25 season. They'll want as much momentum as possible when they cut the ribbon. Acquiring another big name or crunch-time-worthy player goes a long way toward drumming up interest and competitive traction.
Plenty of other teams can outbid the Clippers for premier contributors. But the Clippers can fork over as much as two distant first-rounders, a pair of swaps, Terance Mann and tidy salary-matching contracts. The ceiling on who they can land is higher than many think.
—Favale
Los Angeles Lakers: The Half-Court Offense Will Rank in the Top 10 of Efficiency
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Bogged down by a dearth of spacing and too much on-ball overlap, as well as injuries, the Los Angeles Lakers finished 19th in half-court efficiency last season. They will be much better in 2023-24.
This optimism is not borne from post-trade-deadline euphoria. The Lakers half-court offense ranked 21st after moving Russell Westbrook. Because while the roster made more sense after the fact, it wasn't perfect. Plus, you know, LeBron James' foot.
Better availability from the 38-year-old megastar is part of this calculus. Los Angeles' half-court attack ranked in the 67th percentile last year with him on the floor. Getting enough appearances from him to meet the new All-NBA criteria goes a long way.
A shooting renaissance from Anthony Davis would do the same. Despite the usual dose of rosy preseason vibes, I'm not counting on it. But the Lakers procured shooting upgrades in Taurean Prince, Christian Wood and, relative to Westbrook or Dennis Schröder, Gabe Vincent. The floor should be more open, which benefits everyone—most notably LeBron and AD, but also Austin Reaves.
People tend to think Reaves is overrated because he plays for the Lakers. That feels like overcorrection. Reaves' dribble penetration, specifically, helps optimize the half-court offense. Among 103 players to finish as many drives, Luka Dončić was the only other to shoot better than 60 percent with an assist rate north of 10 in those situations.
—Favale
Memphis Grizzlies: Three Players will Average 20-Plus Points Per Game
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This prediction is not caps-lock SPICY. Five teams last season had a trio of players top 20 points per game: The Golden State Warriors, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Portland Trail Blazers and, yes, Washington Wizards.
Still, this peek into the crystal ball doesn't exactly yield unobstructed views.
Ja Morant clearing the 20-point benchmark is a given once he returns from his 25-game suspension for conduct detrimental to the league. Desmond Bane skated past the 20-point threshold last year, and he will have a larger role while Morant is out. That's another given, unless Marcus Smart goes rogue.
This is mostly a bet on Jaren Jackson Jr. His Defensive Player of the Year credentials received most of the attention last season. Rightfully so. But he also put up a career-high 18.6 points per game while displaying a noticeably deeper on-ball armory.
Nudging that average up another 1.5 points or so doesn't sound like a big deal, especially with Morant scheduled to miss so much time. But Jackson's own availability remains a concern. He has yet to average 29 or more minutes in a single season.
Will this be the year that he consistently reduces the ticky-tack fouls and stays healthy enough to fully uncork the expanding depths of his offensive arsenal? I'm going to say yes, because, well, why not?
—Favale
Miami Heat: Last Year's Offensive and Defensive Stats Turn Upside Down
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When the Miami Heat had both Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro on the floor together last season, they scored 119.1 points per 100 possessions and gave up 120.4. The former number was as terrific, ranking in the 86th percentile, as the latter was terrible, ranking in the 12th. Notably, that offense-defense split ran counter to the Heat's overall 2022-23 profile, which saw them finish seventh on defense and 25th in offense.
With Gabe Vincent and Max Strus gone, and in the wake of Robinson rediscovering his form during last year's NBA Finals run, the Heat are bound to play more offense-first groups in 2023-24. That will mean many more Herro-Robinson lineups that space the floor and score in bunches while surrendering just as many points on the other end.
Conventional wisdom says the Heat should struggle to match last year's 44-38 record after losing two key rotation pieces. That may turn out to be correct. But there's also the possibility that Miami is nearly as good—just in a completely backwards way.
Miami is going to put up top-10 offensive stats while falling well below average defensively.
—Hughes
Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Will Score More Efficiently Than Ever
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You'll just have to believe that this was the prediction for the Milwaukee Bucks before Giannis Antetokounmpo remarked on his first preseason minutes with Damian Lillard.
"I'll be very honest with you, I've never been this open," Antetokounmpo told reporters, via Eric Nehm of The Athletic.
It makes sense. Lillard is among the best pick-and-roll operators the league's ever seen. More importantly, he has to be defended with at least one body from the moment he crosses half court. Every opposing coach knows Lillard is liable to fire from the logo, and the threat of his deep heaves necessarily pulls attention away from the basket and Lillard's teammates.
Antetokounmpo will need to adjust to these new circumstances, and it's still true that defenses won't worry about him as a spot-up threat away from the ball. But whether he's screening for Lillard, cutting or ducking into the lane, Antetokounmpo is going to see less defensive focus than he has in years.
As much as anything else, Lillard's presence means Antetokounmpo won't be tasked with creating shots on his own or handling late-clock bailout duties, cutting out his least efficient looks entirely.
Antetokounmpo topped out at 57.8 percent from the field in 2018-19. He'll set a new career high this season.
—Hughes
Minnesota Timberwolves: Top-4 Playoff Seed, Here They Come
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Morbid curiosity has, yet again, mutated into unchecked optimism. I just can't quit the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Troll them for the Rudy Gobert trade and dual-big model all you like. It is not unwarranted. But between injuries and the midseason roster churn, we didn't see nearly enough of this core to declare it hopeless.
Data on how Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid fit within their various frontcourt combinations are all over the place. Most of it is not good. But the addition of Mike Conley changes the complexion of their offense—notably its ball and body movement and spacing.
The midseason turn from Reid prior to his left wrist injury remains a big deal, too. He improved his rim protection and above-the-break shooting while busting out an operable floor game.
Valid concerns persist. Will Gobert try to do too much on offense? Bobble more passes and non-dunks than last year? (Conley helps here again.) Where does Kyle Anderson fit into the fold? As a backup point guard? Do they dare try him as a wing rather than pure 4?
Optimism should win out anyway—for now. Anthony Edwards is closer to #thatdude than not. Jalen McDaniels is one of the three best perimeter defenders in the game, and he's not No. 3. The bench is deep with intrigue thanks to Reid, Anderson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker's post-trade play and the addition of Shake Milton.
Meanwhile, KAT is giving uncharacteristically short answers to the media, which I can only assume means he's about to run roughshod over the league while chewing up and spitting out most, if not all, of the unflattering narratives attached to his name. This team will be good—top-four-in-the-West good.
—Favale
New Orleans Pelicans: Zion Williams Plays in a Career-High Number of Games
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Zion Williams has missed basically two-thirds of the games in which he's been eligible to play for his career. And he's never made more than 61 appearances in a season.
Let's will better availability into existence, shall we?
There is no scientific reasoning behind this prediction. It is an unapologetic stab in the dark, albeit far from baseless.
A right hamstring injury ended Zion's 2022-23 campaign after only 29 appearances. He has since made changes to his personal training staff. The New Orleans Pelicans tweaked their own medical staff. Zion also spoke about working on movement and "locking into every aspect" of his body.
Ignore preseason evidence of descending lift. Call it selective implosion instead.
Manifest more availability from Zion than ever. Both the Pelicans and your League Pass experience will be better for it.
—Favale
New York Knicks: The Offense Comes Back to Earth
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Years from now, we're going to look back at the 2022-23 New York Knicks and wonder how in the world they managed to finish second in offensive efficiency.
The Knicks finished 20th in effective field-goal percentage, yet they managed to score loads of points by hoarding offensive rebounds, generating threes off those misses at high rates and generally taking care of the ball. Those are all great qualities, but sustainably good offense has to depend on the ability to make shots, doesn't it?
In fairness, some of those factors are repeatable. Mitchell Robinson won't suddenly forget how to crash the glass and secure extra possessions. But in addition to the broad idea that the Knicks' offensive talent simply isn't substantial enough to finish anywhere close to second again, there's also the issue of scouting reports.
Teams will be more attentive to neutralizing New York's marginal advantages. They'll box out more consistently, maybe sending extra bodies to the boards. And they'll certainly be more conscientious about locating shooters in scattered situations.
Maybe the Knicks will adjust to those counters and find new ways to put up points. But the safer assumption is that they can't sustain anything close to last year's offensive production.
—Hughes
Oklahoma City Thunder: Ousmane Dieng Will Emerge as a Core Piece
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It is March 2024. You're sitting in front of your laptop, or your phone, or your TV, watching the Oklahoma City Thunder once again, relentlessly, sprint up and down the floor.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has just fired off his fifth three in a single game for the 23rd time this season. Moments ago, Chet Holmgren drilled a three on one end then blocked a step-back jumper at the other. Josh Giddey is 4-of-6 on the night from floater range while flirting with a triple-double. Jalen Williams is defending and driving like a supercharged tank made up of other, tiny supercharged tanks.
Then, for what feels like the umpteenth time this season, Ousmane Dieng rotates over from the help side and swallows a shot attempt at the rim whole. Coming down with the ball in hand, he barely returns to solid ground before throwing a pass the full length of the floor to a streaking J-Dub for an easy two.
On the next defensive possession, Dieng is switched onto the perimeter, struggling a little bit with his foot speed, but erasing lines of sight top to bottom, as well as side-to-side, with his length and size and standing reach, all of which have somehow increased since you watched him two nights ago. His man defers in the face of impossibility.
A few nanoseconds later, Dieng teleports into a corner passing lane, snaring the ball, which he hands off to SGA. He jog-sprints up the floor, receives the ball above the break, swings it to J-Dub and instantly cuts toward the basket, catching a quick-fire pass in stride, stopping only to yam it at the rim.
"What the fudge?!?" you scream, internally and externally, except you don't say "fudge," while running both of your hands through your hair in exasperation and envy. "OKC really got Ous, too?!?!?"
—Favale
Orlando Magic: The Leap Doesn't Happen...Yet
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It's easy to understand why optimism surrounds the Orlando Magic. They're young and loaded with upside, led by Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, perhaps the best early-20s forward tandem in the game. They also recovered remarkably well from last year's 5-20 start, going 29-28 over their final 57 games.
It's hard not to assume 40-plus wins are imminent with that closing stretch and the expected improvement of so many other young pieces beyond just Banchero and Wagner. Look a little deeper, though, and there are just as many reasons to expect a record more in line with last year's 34-48 mark.
For starters, Magic opponents hit their threes at the sixth-worst clip in the league last season. It's fair to expect that number to regress toward the mean. If it does, Orlando's shoddy rim protection will hurt it even more. Close-range defense tends to be stickier year to year than three-point defense, and the Magic let opponents shoot 70.3 percent near the basket in 2022-23, the third-highest hit rate in the league.
The kicker here is that the Magic allow opponents to shoot tons of triples in order to wall off the rim—which makes sense when your inability to force misses at close range is such an issue. So if those triples fall at rates closer to the league average, the damage could be magnified because of the high volume.
In all, Orlando seems highly unlikely to finish with the 11th-best defensive rating again. And because its guards are suspect shooters who don't stretch the defense, it's possible their No. 26 offense doesn't get much better, either.
—Hughes
Philadelphia 76ers: Jaden Springer Will Arrive
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It'd be more tantalizing to predict Joel Embiid will request a trade before season's end, or that James Harden will pay for a blimp emblazoned with "Daryl Morey is a liar" to circle the Wells Fargo Center before every home game (whether he's still on the team or not). But there's just no telling how those bigger-picture Sixers issues will play out.
Instead, let's call our shot on Jaden Springer's breakout. The 21-year-old is ready to level up.
Considering he logged just 5.6 minutes per game last season while shuttling between Philly and the G League, it wouldn't take much for Springer to make a leap. With that said, his preseason work has been so intriguing, and his potential importance to this year's Sixers team is so clear, that it's hard to avoid getting hyperbolic.
Let's settle on Springer sticking in the rotation all year, playing at least 20.0 minutes per game and eventually nudging more established guards and wings like De'Anthony Melton, Kelly Oubre Jr., Danuel House Jr., Danny Green and even Patrick Beverley further down the depth chart.
—Hughes
Phoenix Suns: Devin Booker Will Average 7 or More Assists Per Game
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Much has been made about the Phoenix Suns punting on conventional point guard play. Too much.
All three of their superstars are capable playmakers and celestial shot creators. Phoenix doesn't need an offensive steward unless two of Bradley Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant are off the floor or not playing. And frankly, if that's ever the case, the Suns have bigger problems than lamenting their salary dump of Cameron Payne.
More than anything, though, Phoenix doesn't need to juice up its table-setting ranks because it already has a premier game manager.
This isn't just someone who flings simple-yet-effective kick-outs. Yeah, he does that. And more. So. Much. More.
Booker can spray the ball across all angles of the court. He can throw one-handed Hail Marys in transition, or in semi-transition, after snagging a steal or rebound. He can accelerate past screens, changing his pace ever so slightly after turning the corner, before whipping a cross-court pass to the corner.
He can thread the needle inside the pocket to a streaking Jusuf Nurkic. He can get the ball off misses, run with his head up, directing Beal and Durant to their spots before defenses get set in the process.
Phoenix will lean on Booker to orchestrate more than anyone else because he is unequivocally the best passer on the team. His 6.8 assists per game in 2018-19 remain a career high. He'll have a new one by season's end.
—Favale
Portland Trail Blazers: No Offense Will Be Faster
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Playing at warp speed should be the Portland Trail Blazers' foremost calling card as they tip off the post-Damian Lillard era. They have the personnel to do it—have they ever fielded a more athletic team?—and inflating the pace can cover up for a lack of proven skill in half-court situations.
Cue the "You said these predictions wouldn't be too obvious, dammit!" from the scant few people who actually read the intro and made it this far. I hear you. And I implore you to take the time to detangle your underwear from your buttocks.
Any team that plans to play Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Anfernee Simons, Deandre Ayton, Robert Williams III, Matisse Thybulle, Toumani Camara and—pretty, pretty please—Rayan Rupert must try to break the sound barrier. But the Blazers have stiff competition.
The Sacramento Kings ranked first in average possession time last season, according to Inpredictable. Their commitment to running after made shots was particularly enviable. Similar things can be said about the Oklahoma City Thunder (second) and Indiana Pacers (fourth).
It takes a certain amount of discipline to play that chaotically fast all the time. The Blazers have the personnel, the more-than-occasional fallaway transition hook shot from Ayton notwithstanding. Do they also have the ability to control the flow of the game when it's not cooperating? For the purpose of this prediction, yes, yes they do.
—Favale
Sacramento Kings: De'Aaron Fox Makes All-NBA Second Team (or Better)
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Not since Mitch Richmond in 1996-97 has a Sacramento Kings guard made All-NBA second team. Tiny Archibald is the franchise's last guard who earned first-team honors, all the way back in 1975-76, when they were the Kansas City Kings.
De'Aaron Fox is about to end the second-team drought at the very least. I won't rule out a first-team cameo, either. Getting rid of positions on the end-of-season ballot opens the door for an all-guard first team. Fox is good enough to jockey for spots at the tippy-top of the star pecking order.
Stephen Curry, Luka Dončić and Damian Lillard were the only other players last season who averaged at least 25 points and six assists per game while matching Fox's true shooting percentage (59.9). There's little reason to forecast regression. Fox doesn't turn 26 until December. His best basketball should still be in front of him.
Sure, we can't expect him to be as ridiculously flawless in crunch time. But we're now entering, like, Year 4 of the "There's no way he'll be this efficient from mid-range or on step-back threes!" discourse.
Stop fighting it, insofar as anyone is still resisting it. Fox's star turn isn't coming. It came. And went. This is his new entrenched normal.
—Favale
San Antonio Spurs: Wemby Is First Rookie with 20+ PTS/G, 2.5+ BLK/G, 1 3PM/G
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Sincere apologies to the "Devin Vassell for Most Improved Player" runner-up prediction. Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, Franz Wagner and Jaden McDaniels scared me away.
All things Victor Wembanyama are more polarizing anyway, and I am nothing if not a clicks-chaser.
Oh, but also, Wemby is absolutely going to make NBA history.
No rookie has ever averaged more than 20.0 points, 2.5 blocks and 1.0 made threes per game. Joel Embiid came closest in 2016-17. But he averaged 2.5 blocks on the button (and only made 31 appearances). Wemby is going to reach at least 2.6—and potentially blow right past it.
Perhaps you're not buying into on-ball creativity. I humbly present a counterpoint:
Not all of Wemby's buckets (or earned free throws) will be this hard. He can finish any given game with more points than minutes. His play-finishing away from the ball is that seamless.
Forecasting one made three per game is probably the riskiest part of this. I'm not particularly worried. While he won't have the prettiest clip from deep, his preseason volume (9.5 per 36 minutes!) suggests he'll launch more than enough of them to offset any deficits of efficiency.
—Favale
Toronto Raptors: They'll Finally Choose a Direction
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This is practically cheating because the Toronto Raptors have waited passively for so long, refusing to rebuild or make win-now trades, that they'll soon have to choose a direction by default.
That still counts!
Losing Fred VanVleet for nothing in free agency should have been a wake-up call. Toronto could have dealt FVV at the 2023 trade deadline, or even sooner than that. With Pascal Siakam and O.G. Anunoby both set to hit free agency in the summer of 2024, the Raptors will extend (unlikely) or trade their two best players. It just seems impossible that they'd allow two more key pieces to hit the market.
Inaction is an action, and it has consequences.
Even if the Raps white-knuckle it through the season and hope they can reach deals with Siakam and Anunoby in July, they'll have no choice but to pick a direction then. Option one: spend big to keep their vets, thereby committing to a near-term window. Option two: reorient the core around Scottie Barnes and whatever they can add into cap space or via sign-and-trade.
No matter what happens, we'll have a far better idea of Toronto's overall plan by the end of this year. That clarity has been a long time coming.
—Hughes
Utah Jazz: Keyonte George Makes First-Team All-Rookie
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Around draft night, I would've had every intention of making this "Taylor Hendricks earns All-Rookie first-team honors." But then the Utah Jazz traded for John Collins, obfuscating Jaren Jackson Jr.-without-the-foul-addiction's path to meaningful playing time.
Just a few weeks ago, I would've had every intention of shifting to "Keyonte George starts more than 42 games." But if you've been paying attention to Utah's roster and training camp, you understand that's real Captain Obvious stuff at this point.
Stepping out on this limb is more exciting—and fairly sturdy.
George will enter the Jazz's rotation as their best and smartest passer, someone who will devastate not just in open space but through traffic and out double-teams. He may also already be their most reliable off-the-dribble jump-shooting option.
Three All-Rookie first-team spots feel sewn up, barring something unforeseen or sinister, by Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson and Chet Holmgren. Other rookies considered higher-end than George will be among those competing for the final two slots.
But opportunity is a huge part of leaving a dent in the All-Rookie discussion. George should have runway that's not afforded to many other fellow newbies, if not right away then certainly soon.
—Favale
Washington Wizards: Jordan Poole Will Average Over 27.0 Points per Game
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Let's get this out of the way up front: Jordan Poole will almost definitely get his pile of nightly points at a substandard rate of efficiency. He's just a hair under the league average in true shooting percentage for his career, and he compiled that figure in Golden State playing with Hall of Fame teammates who drew away defensive attention and, in theory, prevented Poole from having to take more difficult shots.
With that said, Poole averaged 24.5 points per 36 minutes last season and put up more than 22.0 points per 36 minutes in 2021-22 and 2020-21. Now the only shot-creator in the Washington Wizards' backcourt, he's going to get all he can eat—both in terms of playing time and on-ball volume.
If he doesn't serve up a handful of 50-burgers, it'll be a shock. The Wizards are the East's only clear tanker, and nobody will be able to tell Poole to reel in his wilder offensive tendencies. He's going to have spectacular scoring nights in 15-point losses on the regular.
—Hughes
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac. Subscribe to Dan and Grant's NBA podcast, Hardwood Knocks.
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