NFL 2023 MVP Odds: Tips on the Favorites and Best Values for Week 7
We're six weeks into the 2023 NFL season, and the race for league MVP is perhaps even more unclear than it was entering Week 1.
Josh Allen had another poor outing in Week 6, while sleeper candidate Brock Purdy experienced his first truly bad game as a pro. Jalen Hurts had a three-interception game in a loss, while Patrick Mahomes continues to be good-not-great with a very underwhelming receiving corps.
The latest slate has pushed Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back to the top, following his 262-yard, three-touchdown performance. It's largely been a week-to-week shuffle between Tagovailoa, Mahomes and Allen, and at this point, it's hard to identify a true favorite from the group.
Below, you'll find a look at the latest odds and some advice on Week 7 MVP wagering.
Find the latest NFL MVP odds at DraftKings.
NFL MVP Favorites Entering Week 7
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Tua Tagovailoa +350 (bet $100 to win $350)
Patrick Mahomes +450
Josh Allen +700
Jalen Hurts +750
Brock Purdy +1100
Christian McCaffrey +1500
Lamar Jackson +1800
Jared Goff +2000
Trevor Lawrence +2200
Tua Tagovailoa Feels Like the Safe Pick
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Tagovailoa doesn't have the spiciest odds at +350, but picking him now to hedge against other value wagers feels like a reasonable move.
Allen has been too up-and-down for the Buffalo Bills to represent a security pick. He had a poor game against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 5 and another clunker against the New York Giants on Sunday.
In back-to-back weeks, the Buffalo offense has failed to get going until the second half.
The Kansas City Chiefs receiving corps might be too inconsistent to get Mahomes the numbers he needs to win a third MVP—though if he starts playing better, he'll get a ton of credit for lifting a subpar group.
Hurts has been good enough more often than not, but he's been far less efficient as a passer than he was last season. His QB rating is down from 101.5 to 84.7. Until/unless offensive coordinator Brian Johnson's unit hits its stride, Hurts will have a difficult time jumping the pack.
Meanwhile, Miami's offense is giving Tagovailoa the numbers he needs to win the MVP. The 25-year-old has already thrown for 1,876 yards with 14 touchdowns, five interceptions and a 114.1 passer rating.
As a team, the Dolphins are averaging a whopping 8.0 yards per play. Until a team figures out how to slow Mike McDaniel's offense, Tagovailoa will continue to produce gaudy numbers.
Wait a Week to Buy into Jared Goff
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Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff remains a great value pick for those willing to back a long shot. The Lions are rolling, and there's a good chance that Goff ends up being a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback on the team with the league's best record—which is usually enough for MVP consideration.
And it's not as if Goff's numbers aren't impressive. He's thrown for 1,618 yards with 11 touchdowns, three interceptions and a 105.1 rating. With the 29-year-old at the helm, Detroit ranks third in yards per pass attempt.
However, Goff's odds drupped from +3000 to +2000 in the past week, and they could become more favorable after this weekends game against the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens have done a good job of limiting opposing passers this season, ranking first in yards per attempt allowed and second in passing yards allowed. Baltimore has surrendered a league-low (tied) four passing touchdowns.
The Lions could very well win this week with average numbers from Goff. That might be enough to make him a better mid-season MVP value.
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Don't Abandon Brock Purdy Just Yet
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The San Francisco 49ers had a horrible offensive game against the Cleveland Browns in Week 6, and Purdy had his worst regular-season outing to date. The second-year quarterback passed for just 125 yards with one touchdown, one interception and a 55.3 QB rating.
Subsequently, his odds went from +700 entering Week 6 to +1100.
There are a few things to keep in mind. For one, plenty of quarterbacks are going to have bad games against the Browns defense this season. Secondly, Purdy still leads the league with a 76.9 QBR and possesses a 111.9 quarterback rating.
Lastly, there's a chance that Purdy will play without both Christian McCaffrey (oblique) and Deebo Samuel (shoulder) against a middling Minnesota Vikings defense on Monday night.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan will have a full week to put together a plan that doesn't involve McCaffrey and Samuel. That could lead to some very impressive numbers from Purdy, and if he has a huge game without those two stars, it'll only strengthen his case to be considered "most valuable."
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