NFL Odds Week 7: Top Longshots to Bet Against the Spread
One of the most fun aspects of the 2023 NFL season thus far has been its unpredictability. There is no truly unbeatable team, and we've seen underdogs repeatedly pull off upsets over the first month and a half.
In Week 6, we had two huge upsets, with the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns knocking off the previously unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers, respectively. We also saw the New York Giants take the Buffalo Bills to the wire and cover a two-score line with ease.
We're likely to see more upsets in Week 7, which kicks off with the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints on Thursday night. Below, you'll find a look at our favorite longshots to bet against the spread and why they're worth targeting at the current lines.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Detroit Lions +3 at Baltimore Ravens
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When the Baltimore Ravens are playing their best and not making self-inflicted mistakes, they can beat anyone. However, losses to the Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers have shown that the Ravens will get in their own way on occasion.
Baltimore committed five turnovers in those two games, and it has turned the ball over in all but one game this season.
The Ravens return home following a lackluster win over the Tennessee Titans in London. While they won by eight points, the Ravens struggled to find the end zone, notching one touchdown and six field goals to get to 24 points.
Baltimore needs to be much more efficient to take care of the underdog Detroit Lions, who have found their stride on both sides of the ball over the past month. Detroit ranks inside the top 10 in yards, points, yards allowed and points allowed.
The one concern here is David Montgomery's rib injury.
"He's probably gonna be down for a little bit, here. I don't know how long," head coach Dan Campbell told reporters.
The Lions may have to lean on Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and their passing game more than usual here, but Detroit has more than enough playmakers to pull off the upset or at least keep things close.
Miami Dolphins +2 at Philadelphia Eagles
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It's actually a bit surprising to see the Miami Dolphins as underdogs in this matchup. The line is likely a reflection of the Philadelphia Eagles' status as the home team. That will give Philadelphia an advantage, but it might not be enough.
New Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson has done a respectable job, but Philly's passing attack has been heavily focused on A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and the running backs. With no reliable third receiver in the mix, teams have been able to focus on the big threats and fluster quarterback Jalen Hurts.
The Jets did exactly that while picking off Hurts three times on Sunday.
The Eagles defense, meanwhile, has missed players like T.J. Edwards, C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps. A unit that was elite in 2022 now ranks 16th in points allowed.
The Dolphins offense barely missed rookie star De'Von Achane in Week 6, rushing for 162 yards and dropping 42 points without him. While the Eagles will present a bigger challenge than the Carolina Panthers did, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle could be too much for Philadelphia's secondary to contain.
This projects as a back-and-forth offensive struggle, and Miami has the more explosive attack.
Arizona Cardinals +7.5 at Seattle Seahawks
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The Arizona Cardinals aren't a particularly talented team, and their offense has struggled without running back James Conner (knee). However, Arizona has been a scrappy team under new head coach Jonathan Gannon, and this is a large line for a divisional game.
As long as the line remains above a touchdown, Arizona is a reasonable road dog to pick. While the Seattle Seahawks are playoff-caliber, they're far from a perfect team.
The offense hasn't been humming behind Geno Smith as it did a year ago. Seattle racked up 381 total yards against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 6 but only put 13 points on the board. Turnovers and poor red-zone efficiency cost Seattle against Cincinnati.
The Seahawks defense remains a middle-of-the-pack unit, one ranked 16th overall and 18th in points allowed. If Cardinals quarterback Joshua Dobbs can play a clean game—all three of his interceptions came over the past two weeks—Arizona will put points on the board.
The Cardinals have played a better brand of football under Gannon than they did under Kliff Kingsbury in 2022. They lost both games in this series by exactly 10 points a season ago, and they should keep things a little closer this time around.
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