NFL Picks Week 6: Best Favorites to Bet Before Odds Change
The Kansas City Chiefs were expected to win by double digits on Thursday night, and they did, beating the rival Denver Broncos 18-9. It was a more one-sided affair than the final score might have indicated, but Kansas City's struggles in the red zone prevented a total blowout.
The fact that the Chiefs played an inefficient game and still won by 11 shows precisely why they were installed as double-digit favorites. Kansas City was clearly the better team, and we have a few more similar situations ahead in Week 6.
Below, we'll examine our three top favorites to back for the rest of the Week 6 slate. We'll examine why they should win and why the current lines are worth targeting.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
49ers -10 at Browns
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Through five weeks, the San Francisco 49ers have consistently looked and played like the best team in football. The offense, centered around Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, has been explosive. The defense has been a veritable nightmare for opposing quarterbacks.
San Francisco ranks third in total offense and total defense, second in scoring and first in points allowed. It has won every game by a touchdown or more.
now, the 49ers travel to take on a banged-up Cleveland Browns team that will be without quarterback Deshaun Watson and standout guard Joel Bitonio and could be without tight end David Njoku. Mounting any offense against San Francisco will be a massive challenge.
Yes, the Browns defense has been very good under Jim Schwartz. However, Week 4's blowout loss to the Baltimore Ravens showed that Cleveland can't win with defense alone. This one could get ugly quickly, and there's a good chance that the line expands even further before kickoff.
Dolphins -13.5 Versus Panthers
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The Miami Dolphins haven't been as dominant on both sides of the ball as San Francisco. However, no team boasts the offensive speed and explosive potential of Miami.
The loss of rookie running back De'Von Achane will impact the Dolphins ground attack. However, Miami can still get a functional ground game going behind Raheem Mostert, who is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season.
The Carolina Panthers have struggled to slow the run, surrendering an average of 4.9 yards per carry in 2023. Miami's ground attack will be fine, while Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill Jaylen Waddle and the passing game will find the big plays it needs.
Carolina's offense, meanwhile, has failed to find a rhythm around rookie quarterback Bryce Young. The Panthers rank 23rd in total offense and 25th in scoring. They lack go-to receiving options to aid Young, and it's impossible to envision the Panthers keeping pace on the scoreboard.
This is a huge line, but Miami has rarely taken its foot off the gas when ahead this season.
Buffalo Bills -15 Versus Giants
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The Buffalo Bills need a "get-right" game after falling flat against the Jacksonville Jaguars in London last Sunday. They'll likely find it against the rudderless New York Giants.
New York has averaged just 12.5 points per game this season and has scored more than 16 points only once. All four of its losses have been by double digits. While the Giants may have Saquon Barkley back in the lineup, they won't have quarterback Daniel Jones.
"Giants ruled out QB Daniel Jones for Sunday night's game vs. the Bills. Tyrod Taylor starts vs. his former team," ESPN's Adam Schefter posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Taylor is a perfectly capable quarterback, but the Giants don't have the skill players around him needed to keep up with the Bills. Buffalo throttled the Dolphins 48-20 in their last home game, and this one could be even more lopsided.
While New York's offense has floundered, its defense hasn't been much better. The Giants rank 27th in total defense and 29th in points allowed.
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