Every MLB Team's Toughest 2023-24 Free Agency Decision
It's almost that time of year again. Not long after the playoffs end, the door to Major League Baseball's free-agent market will open and the scramble to scoop up talent will be on.
Every team will need to have a plan, but first they need to know where they stand on various dilemmas.
For the sake of illustrating the point, we're about to go over the most difficult decision each team will have to make in free agency.
These hit on options that should or shouldn't be picked up, how hard they should try to retain incumbents who are ticketed for the open market, as well as more general matters such as how they can and should address needs.
Let's go in alphabetical order by city.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Where to Make a Splash
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The Diamondbacks have already won more playoff games in 2023 than they had in the last 12 years combined, so they'll enter the winter with momentum no matter what.
Then the question will become how best to channel said momentum. The D-backs will need pitching depth, but they'll also have holes in their outfield and at third base once Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Tommy Pham and Evan Longoria file for free agency.
Atlanta: Whether to Wade into the Starting Pitching Market
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As long as the man himself is willing to keep pitching, Charlie Morton will be back in Atlanta in 2024. Per ESPN's Buster Olney, the team is game to pick up his $20 million option.
That would allow Atlanta to retain its core rotation trio of Morton, Spencer Strider and Max Fried. But after them things get murkier, and that much more so with Kyle Wright slated to miss all of 2024 recovering from shoulder surgery.
Atlanta's in-house options will include Bryce Elder and a veritable laundry list of right-handed prospects headlined by AJ Smith-Shawver. But if they come to fancy a bit more certainty, they'll have the option of dipping into what will be a deep pool of free-agent starters.
Baltimore Orioles: Whether to Make a Splash
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The Orioles have a handful of free agents set to come off their books, but none was especially crucial to the club's 101-win effort in the regular season.
A more pressing question is whether this is the offseason that the Orioles should finally augment their homegrown core with a splashy signing or two. Because doesn't a team this good deserve better than the third-lowest payroll in the league?
Yet it's fair to wonder if free agency is really the way to go. The Orioles didn't have a single position rank in the bottom half of MLB in rWAR this year, and they still have the league's No. 1 farm system. As such, they might be better off focusing on extensions and trades.
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Boston Red Sox: Whether to Bring Back Justin Turner
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Though Justin Turner holds a $13.4 million player option for next season, the chances of him exercising it are slim to none.
The veteran is, after all, coming off a resurgent year that saw him post an .800 OPS and 23 home runs. He was easily the best right-handed hitter in a Red Sox lineup that otherwise skewed heavily to the left.
But how desperate should the Red Sox be to bring Turner back? It's great that he loves Boston, but he turns 39 on Nov. 23. In lieu of granting him a raise in hopes that he still has more in the tank, the Red Sox might want to save every available dollar for pitching.
Chicago Cubs: Whether to Pursue Cody Bellinger
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Speaking of crucial 2023 contributors who control their own 2024 destinies, there's precisely zero chance of Cody Bellinger honoring his end of his $25 million mutual option.
Even if his power still isn't what it was in his heyday with the Dodgers, Bellinger did basically everything else well for the Cubs this year. He notched his first 20-20 season while hitting .307 and playing well at both center field and first base.
As hard as it is to willfully say goodbye to a guy like that, the Cubs might have to make that call. They might be just fine if they hand center field over to Pete Crow-Armstrong and pursue an alternative solution at first base like, say, Pete Alonso.
Chicago White Sox: Whether to Pick Up Tim Anderson's Option
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The White Sox hold a $14 million club option on Tim Anderson for 2024, which would be a no-brainer if he was still the Tim Anderson of 2019-2022.
Alas, that guy was nowhere to be found in 2023. Anderson was often banged up and he otherwise just never really found his stroke, resulting in his average slipping to .245 and his value cratering to minus-2.0 rWAR.
The calculation before the White Sox now is whether Anderson revitalizing his trade value in 2024 is worth a $14 million bet, or if the safer play is to pay his $1 million buyout and simply say goodbye and good luck.
Cincinnati Reds: Whether to Pick Up Joey Votto's Option
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That this is even being posed as a real question might have some Reds fans bristling. They simply have to pick up Joey Votto's $20 million option, right?
Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer even called it a "no-brainer," in part because Votto is simply a Reds institution. Beyond being a veteran presence, he's a guy who can help fill seats at Great American Ball Park.
Then again, Votto has been a roughly replacement-level player in three of the last four seasons. In lieu of paying him $20 million, the Reds might want to pay his $7 million buyout and spend the $13 million in savings on pitching and outfield upgrades.
Cleveland Guardians: Whether to Try Harder to Add Power
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The Guardians tried to find power on the cheap last winter, adding Josh Bell and Mike Zunino on deals that totaled $39 million.
Heck of a lot of good it did them. Bell and Zunino produced just 14 home runs in the time they were in town, which notably wasn't the whole year for either of them. In the end, the Guardians hit 27 fewer homers than any other team.
If the Guardians try again to boost their power, their options will be to pursue pricier yet surer bets such as Teoscar Hernández or (if he opts out) Jorge Soler or to take another trip to the power bargain bin. Either way, where the team's priorities lie will become clear.
Colorado Rockies: Where to Even Go from Here
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An actual plan? For the Rockies? Is this Bizarro World?
In all seriousness, it's a difficult spot the Rockies are in. In the franchise's wake is its first ever 100-loss season. In its future for 2024 is a bloated payroll that will have eight-figure salaries for six different players, none of whom have any real trade value.
Since a complete teardown doesn't seem to be in order, the best thing the Rockies can do is keep building. Adding lesser parts on cheap deals is the smart choice. But even if it wouldn't necessarily be the right one, pursuing more Kris Bryant-sized deals is at least the bolder, more interesting choice.
Detroit Tigers: Whether to Bring Back Eduardo Rodriguez
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The Tigers don't technically have any major free agents set to come off their books, but that will change if Eduardo Rodriguez opts out of his contract.
This may not even be a matter of if, but of when. He has three years and $49 million remaining on his deal, and he should be worth more than that on the open market after putting up a 3.30 ERA over 152.2 innings.
But should the Tigers be the ones to give him a raise? Perhaps they should, but the alternative route would be to hand the rotation over to Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning and Casey Mize and put any money earmarked for Rodriguez towards hitting.
Houston Astros: Whether to Bring Back Michael Brantley
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Among the Astros regulars slated for free agency is Martín Maldonado, but it'll frankly be an upset if he isn't let go so Yainer Diaz can take over behind the plate.
Michael Brantley presents a more difficult decision. He's been good for the Astros when he's been healthy, and any time he's in left field means Yordan Álvarez is safe in the designated hitter spot. But then again, Brantley has only been healthy enough to play in 79 games over the last two years.
Even if it will likely cost less than Brantley's current $12 million salary to bring him back for 2024, the Astros will have to weigh whether other areas need the money more.
Kansas City Royals: How Hard to Go After Pitching
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Whether the Royals need to add pitching this winter is not in dispute. Theirs was simply awful in 2023, accounting for the third-least rWAR in the league.
Ah, but how much pitching will it take to turn around a team that's fresh off a 106-loss season? Whatever the answer is, the cost of obtaining that much pitching is surely more than the Royals have to spend.
It might nonetheless be worth it for them to make a splash or two anyway. Because even if the result is merely limited progress, even that would be better than the zero progress they've made amid a rebuild that will enter its seventh year in 2024.
Los Angeles Angels: Whether to Bring Back Shohei Ohtani
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Granted, a more accurate summary of the question facing the Angels is whether they should so much as bother pursuing a reunion with Shohei Ohtani.
He'd obviously make them better, because there's not a team on earth he wouldn't make better. Even if he can't pitch again until 2025, whoever signs him will still be getting a hitter who's fresh off leading the American League OPS and home runs.
Yet even setting aside whether the 2021 AL MVP even wants anything to do with the Angels at this point, there's the matter of whether a team as badly in need of a rebuild as they are should be trying to add as much as $500 million to its books.
Los Angeles Dodgers: How Much to Prioritize Starting Pitching
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If you think the Dodgers' starting rotation is a mess right now, just wait until a couple weeks from now.
Bobby Miller will still be there, and the Dodgers will be able to pencil in Walker Buehler for his return in 2024. But there will otherwise be nothing but question marks, with the biggest pertaining to Clayton Kershaw's future and Lance Lynn's $18 million option.
Is all this license to go all-in on the winter's deep pitching market? Or do the Dodgers save their money for Shohei Ohtani, in which case they'll need to trust in-house options like Emmett Sheehan and Ryan Pepiot next year? Either way, much drama awaits.
Miami Marlins: Whether to Bring Back Jorge Soler
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If Jorge Soler chooses to exercise his $9 million player option for 2024, he'll be taking quite the pay cut on the $15 million he made this year.
It's doubtful he would do that even if he didn't have a strong hand to play, and he indeed does after he hit 36 home runs for the Marlins this year. To bring him back could potentially cost them at least $15 million per year in a multi-year contract.
Even if the Marlins can afford to do such a deal, they'll need to wonder if the better play would be to spread that money around. Their offense did, after all, finish in the bottom 10 of the league in rWAR at six different positions.
Milwaukee Brewers: How to Rebuild Their Offense
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When the Brewers managed just five runs in a sweep by Arizona in the Wild Card Series, what was already clear became crystal-clear: This team can't hit.
Changing the offense for the better simply must be a priority for the Brewers this winter, and it won't be enough for them to merely add depth here and there. What they really need is another big bopper to provide support for Christian Yelich and William Contreras.
It would be worth it for the Brewers to pursue guys like Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger, but that would require them to get out of their spending comfort zone. If that's going to happen, it might only be after they first cut payroll through trades of Corbin Burnes or Willy Adames.
Minnesota Twins: Whether to Bring Back Sonny Gray
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It may not have looked like it on Tuesday, but Sonny Gray has been a significant part of the excellent pitching staff the Twins have this year.
Though Pablo López handled more innings and struck out more batters during the regular season, Gray led the team with a 2.79 ERA while generally putting up strong metrics. He's likely earned himself a nice raise on the $12.7 million he's making this season.
However, Gray will turn 34 on Nov. 7 and there's already some volatility in his track record. Rather than rush to bring him back, the Twins might be better served prioritizing other needs such as a viable regular in center field to take Michael A. Taylor's place.
New York Mets: Just How Big to Go
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A few months after they gutted a record-sized $350 million payroll, the Mets have a new president of baseball operations in David Stearns and are staring down a fascinating winter.
The buzz in August was that the Mets will be playing it cool as they draw up plans to return to contention in 2025 or 2026. Yet people like Jim Bowden of The Athletic are still connecting them to prime free agents like Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Whether Mets owner Steve Cohen can afford those guys is not the question. What is the question is whether he'll be willing to try another all-in approach so soon after the last one failed so spectacularly.
New York Yankees: How Best to Make a Splash
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Elsewhere on the topic of disappointing New York baseball teams, the Yankees are likewise approaching a critical winter after winning just seven more games than the Mets.
One of their top priorities is balancing a lineup that was too unathletic and too right-handed this year. Shohei Ohtani would solve at least one of those problems, so go figure that Jon Heyman of the New York Post sees them as a "logical" contender for the slugger.
Yet Ohtani and Giancarlo Stanton can't both DH on an everyday basis. And then there's New York's rotation, wherein Gerrit Cole has a co-ace for 2024 only if one still believes in Carlos Rodón. Which is to say that even Ohtani isn't a magic bullet for the Yankees.
Oakland Athletics: Which Trade Chips to Pursue
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Look, the A's aren't going to have a splashy offseason. They're frugal even in the best of times, and the times they're in right now are, uh, not that.
Still, let's not assume that Oakland's plan for the winter involves doing nothing. That notably wasn't the plan last offseason, as the team ultimately outspent a dozen other teams in free agency as it gobbled up low-cost reclamation projects.
Though only Jace Peterson was actually made into a trade chip, the experience shouldn't discourage the A's from trying again. Because even more than the roster needs marginal gains, Oakland's middling farm system needs as many reinforcements as it can get.
Philadelphia Phillies: Whether to Bring Back Aaron Nola
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Aaron Nola's attention right now is on helping the Phillies get past Atlanta, for which he'll be the man in the middle when he takes the ball at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday.
Come the winter, though, it'll be time for him to get paid. And he should be paid plenty despite the 4.46 ERA he put up this year, as he's thrice finished in the top 10 for the NL Cy Young Award voting and is one of MLB's top workhorses besides.
Can the Phillies afford him? One would think so, yes. But with Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suárez and Christopher Sánchez locked up for 2024 and top prospect Andrew Painter somewhere in the club's future, whether they must bring him back is debatable.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Whether Now Is the Time for a Splash
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The Pirates have spent less in free agency since 1991 than any other team in MLB, with Francisco Liriano's three-year, $39 million deal from 2014 representing their biggest signing.
Not exactly encouraging stuff, but Bucs owner Bob Nutting has already changed the narrative for the better. He loosened his purse strings to do extensions with Ke'Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds, both key parts of a team that made forward progress in 2023.
Areas where Pittsburgh needs upgrades include the starting rotation, catcher, second base and right field. So if general manager Ben Cherington is able to squeeze financing out of Nutting, he'll have options for what to do with it.
San Diego Padres: Whether to Bring Back Blake Snell
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Only so many splashes may be in order for the Padres this winter, as they're reportedly looking to cut payroll and some within the game think they can't afford Shohei Ohtani.
But what about Blake Snell? It was overwhelmingly thanks to him that San Diego's rotation was a strong point in 2023, as he logged 180 innings and finished with Cy Young Award-worthy creds such as a 2.25 ERA and 5.8 hits per nine innings.
Yet to buy high on Snell would also mean hitching an expensive wagon to a pitcher who frequently struggles with walks, not to mention one whose results have been all over the place in his eight seasons. The Padres might want to let someone else take that chance.
San Francisco Giants: Which Star to Try for This Time
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It's not for lack of trying that the Giants aren't already built around a major free-agent acquisition.
There was their ill-fated pursuit of Bryce Harper in 2019 and, just last winter, a pursuit of Aaron Judge that fell short and an actual deal with Carlos Correa that fell apart. Maddening stuff, to be sure, but the bright side is that the club's books have plenty of space for a star.
Even if they can probably afford Shohei Ohtani or Cody Bellinger, a better play might be to turn the clock back to the 2010s and go all-in on pitching. Either way, the pressure is all on president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi after he sacked manager Gabe Kapler.
Seattle Mariners: Whether to Bring Back Teoscar Hernández
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There's more than one reason the Mariners fell just short of making the playoffs, but the gist is that their middling offense didn't provide enough support for their elite pitching.
To this end, Teoscar Hernández feels like a guy they can't afford to lose, lest their offense get taken down another peg. Inconsistent though he was in 2023, he still ended up with 26 home runs and 93 runs batted in.
But since the idea should be not to keep the offense the same but to make it better, the Mariners could set their sights higher than Hernández. They even vaguely resemble a fit for Cody Bellinger, who would both balance their lineup and improve their defense.
St. Louis Cardinals: Which Pitcher to Go All-In On
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Cardinals starting pitchers ranked 28th out of 30 teams in rWAR, and vintage Adam Wainwright won't be walking through theirs or anyone else's door in 2024.
It'll therefore be an outrage if the Cardinals don't add at least one impact starter this winter, so it's good to hear they're already kicking around big names internally. According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, of interest are Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray.
That's actually a tough call, as Nola tends to be more durable but Gray can be more dominant. Since both are qualities the Cardinals need in their rotation, they may have to flip a coin if they can't have them both.
Tampa Bay Rays: Whether They Need Another Big Splash
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Normally, a three-year, $40 million contract doesn't attract attention. But when the Rays did that deal with Zach Eflin last winter, it marked the biggest free-agent signing in their history.
Because Eflin was their most dependable starter amid a 99-win season, the Rays should perhaps feel emboldened. And it's not as if they don't have needs. They're weak at catcher and could also stand to further pad a rotation that's been crushed by injuries.
Alternatively, they might take whatever money they have and put it into contract extensions. First on that list of priorities is Randy Arozarena, who's already been through arbitration once with three more rounds still to go.
Texas Rangers: Whether to Go Big on a Closer
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It was very much in spite of their bullpen that the Rangers went from 94 losses in 2022 to 90 wins and a playoff appearance this year.
How much rWAR did Rangers relievers produce? Zero. As in, exactly zero. Which should track to anyone who had the displeasure of watching throughout the year, as it wasn't by accident that Texas relievers had more blown saves (33) than successful saves (30).
Yet before anyone says the name "Josh Hader," a savior had suddenly arrived in the person of red-hot closer José Leclerc. If the Rangers think they can trust him to keep it up in 2024, it'll only cost them $6.3 million to exercise his club option.
Toronto Blue Jays: Whether to Bring Back Matt Chapman
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What started as a great year for Matt Chapman in Toronto didn't quite end the same way. It's telling that he batted eighth in the Wild Card Series against the Twins.
And yet, it was because of Chapman that the Blue Jays finished in the top five of MLB in rWAR from third base. Even when his bat was on the cool side, his defense was never not reliable as he racked up 12 Defensive Runs Saved.
In top prospect Orelvis Martinez, the Blue Jays do have an heir to Chapman at the hot corner. But if they willfully clear the way for him to take over, they'll do so knowing that there will be a price to pay on the defensive side.
Washington Nationals: Whether to Push the Envelope
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It was after a 93-loss season in 2010 that the Nationals threw caution to the wind by signing Jayson Werth to a long-term deal. It's fair to say that ultimately worked out.
Could it be time for the Nationals to take another risk of that sort? They did have some bright spots amid a mere 91-loss season this year, after all, and then there's the consideration of whether a shiny new star could help attract the buyers the Lerner family is looking for.
Wishful thinking? Yeah, probably. But at the least, the club's successful rehabilitation of Jeimer Candelario's value ought to have it on the hunt for potential trade chips for 2024.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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